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As Redskins fans we of course have high expectations for the offense this season, but the reality is this offense has been pretty anemic these past couple of years. What position group do you see having the most impressive and surprising year?

Quarterback:

Robert Griffin could no doubt be a special player and one who can put amazing numbers both rushing and throwing. Unfortunately few rookie QB’s have ever put up even decent numbers so the odds are a bit stacked against this group. Griffin does have a skill set that could thrive in this offense, and his speed could allow him to put up numbers even if the full offense is fuction.

My Prediction: I don’t expect big things, but Griffin should have a decent year statistically.

Running back:

Over the years the Mike Shanahan system (in both Denver and Houston) has found the most success when the rushing attack was in the top 10 (if not top 5) in the league. In two years in Washington the team finished 25th and 30th in yards. This has to improve for Washington to be successful. The bad news for the Redskins is they don’t have a single feature back, and their offensive line is filled with question marks. On the positive the Redskins running game should get a boost with Griffin, who’s running and passing could help create opportunities for the backs.

My Prediction: This is the unit to surprise everyone. I think Helu, Royster and Hightower will form a quality running back by committee and they will finish top 15 in the league in rushing yards.

Wide Receiver:

This group should get a boost in production as the Redskins went out and signed WR’s Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan in free agency, while 2nd year WR Leonard Hankerson is expected to be back healthy after a hip injury ruined his rookie year. Santana Moss is also expected back, to give the Redskins a pretty solid top 4 receiver group. Though the Redskins have a pretty solid group of receivers, they lack a true number 1 (or even a top level number 2), and are going to rely more on the sum of their parts. That can be effective if everything goes according to plan, but for it to work all four receivers need to be producing. The other thing that could keep this group down is the likelihood that with a rookie quarterback the Redskins rely more on the run and high percentage passing (i.e. to the backs and tight ends).

My prediction: Individually I think this group will produce solid numbers, but I feel there will be a lack of opportunities leaving the overall production a bit of a disappointment.

Tight Ends:

This could be an intriguing positional group, as the potential is there for big things. Fred Davis had a career year receiving last year, and looked to emerge as one of the better pass catching tight ends in the league. Chris Cooley is coming off his worst year as a pro, but he appears to be healthy and in great shape. He is just two years removed from a season where he had 77 catches and 849 yards. If he’s healthy he can be a very effective target in the short and intermediate passing games. Special teams standout Niles Paul has moved from receiver to tight end, and even after bulking up for the positional change he should offer great speed and agility for the position. A positive for the group overall is the fact that Robert Griffin will likely utilize his tight ends more as a security blanket. On the downside there are questions surrounding all these tight ends. Davis is a poor blocker, who also has had some route running issues. Chris Cooley has some significant injury concerns and is also a poor overall blocker. Niles Paul could excel in a blocking role (despite a smaller size), but is still going to be pretty raw.

My prediction: This will be the 2nd biggest surprise as I believe they will put up good numbers. I see Davis having a similar year to last season, with Cooley having a nice bounce back year. Niles Paul could improve the team blocking and could offer some solid production potential.

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By DC Staff Writer John Manuel:

By last December the NFC East did not look like the powerhouse it was expected to be.  The Redskins had been already eliminated, the Dream Team put themselves in too large a hole to get out of, and the Giants and Cowboys were not only battling for the division, but also to stay above .500.  Then the Giants got the wakeup call and rolled through the Playoffs and to a Super Bowl Championship.

That takes us to now and another off-season where division foes battle for headlines on and off the field.  The Skins were once again far from quiet in March and April making one of the biggest draft trades to acquire the 2nd pick and RG3.  But where do they stand versus the other three in the NFC East?  Let’s look at what each team has done.

New York Giants:

If you’re going to start looking at the NFC East, you must start with the defending Super Bowl Champs, the New York Giants.  Seems like a long time ago, but the Skins defeated the champions twice and both games were by double digits and won by Rex Grossman over Eli Manning.  The Giants, as good teams do, did lose some secondary players in the past months like Brandon Jacobs, Mario Manningham and Aaron Ross.  All were expected.  Jacobs is out but Virginia Tech rookie David Wilson is in.  Most would say it’s an upgrade.  For a big back, Jacobs struggled at short yardage and became more and more of a headache for Tom Coughlin.

The two keys which will keep the Giants near the top is stability at two main parts, quarterback and a defensive line that can get pressure.  Both will keep you in almost any game.  Eli Manning was huge last season and Jason Pierre-Paul emerged as a force.  It’s still unclear what they will do with Osi Umenyiora, but the Giants will still have depth along the Defensive Line if he is moved.

I can’t see a second straight sweep here but a split is possible.  It could be an exciting show seeing RG3 go up against the Giants rush and will be good learning experience seeing what a pro like Manning does versus pressure.

Philadelphia Eagles:

Next are the Philadelphia Eagles.  2011 was supposed to be a dream season.  Additions like Asomugha, Babin, Jenkins, Cromartie and Young had the Eagles as the division favorite, but a horrible start turned it into a nightmare quick.  They did finish strong, but it was too late.  They swept the Skins, once in an almost John Beck led comeback and once in the finale after a big fourth quarter.

Babin did what they expected and was a sack machine.  Nnamdi, not as much.  Last year’s big signing too seldom got worked by receivers.  So what did the Eagles do, they traded maybe their best corner from last year Asante Samuel to the Falcons for a late pick to dump his cap number.  I was pretty shocked they would do this.  Then it got worse when Jason Peters ruptured his Achilles now twice and will not see the field in 2012.  The Eagles did add former Buffalo Bill Demetress Bell to play left tackle, but it is a downgrade.

Philly was able to resign two major parts of their explosive offense, LeSean McCoy and Desean Jackson will be around for awhile at Lincoln Financial.  They did let Vince Young walk and are rolling with Mike Kafka and Nick Foles behind the often injured Mike Vick.  The Eagles also added to a dreadful linebacking core with Demeco Ryans from Houston, which will be an upgrade.  But Andy Reid and Juan Castillo are back for 2012.  And another slow start will turn into great sports radio for anyone driving through on 95 North.

I still don’t like the Redskins chances versus Philly.  Their offensive weapons worry me and the Skins offensive line facing Babin and Cole could become too long afternoons.

Dallas Cowboys:

Finally are the Dallas Cowboys.  The Cowboys also swept the Skins with two heartbreaking defeats led by two Dez Bryant over Deangelo Hall catches in crunch time. The Cowboys went out to address a soft and struggling secondary and they didn’t mess around.

Even with the King Goodell and Prince Demaurice cap penalty, the Cowboys locked up the best cornerback on the free agent market in Brandon Carr.  Then followed that up with a draft day trade that netted them the draft’s best corner in Morris Claiborne aka “The Wonderlic Kid.”  Terrence Newman is gone and Mike Jenkins may soon follow.

Dallas did lose maybe their most productive wideout last season in Laurent Robinson but their key will be if Dez Bryant puts it all together and takes the next step.  The past seasons have shown us that the team will only go as far as Tony Romo plays in big games.  To call him inconsistent is an understatement including an embarrassing loss at New York in week 17.  Dallas brought in Kyle Orton and it’s a smart move for insurance.

With a good running game, a QB’s best friend, the Cowboys still have questions.  Demarco Murray went nuts for a few weeks but then like at Oklahoma got hurt.  Felix Jones has never lived up to the excitement that he brought the first half of his rookie season.

Washington should be able to pull at least a split versus Dallas.  Shanahan and Haslett need to make up for two bad losses last season against the Cowboys.

Prediction:

It is going to be tough for the Redskins in this division as they will start the season looking up at the other three teams.  The Giants come in as the defending champs, and Tom Coughlin should no longer come in feeling the heat although he seems to strive when almost down.  The Eagles are going to hope this season ends up like they expected last season, but failed and still have 0 Super Bowl titles to their credit.  And the only quarterback in the division that will feel more heat the RG3 is Tony Romo.  It’s a big season for Romo to make something happen and not fail when his team needs him.  Or Owner Jerry and GM Jerry will have to at least contemplate other options for 2013.

My Redskins’ NFC East Record:  2-4

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Lorenzo Alexander is a special teams stud and a team leader without question. But those two qualities weren’t enough to keep Mike Sellers on the Redskins roster, and it might not be enough to keep Alexander as well. While there are some differences between the two players (age, slight decline in ST production), it does show that special teams ability alone might not guarantee a roster spot.

I realize this is unfathomable to a number of Redskins fans, and it would be hard for me to swallow as well, but it is possible. Alexander might be a special teams standout, but the question becomes would their be really a noticeable dropoff in either Jonathan Goff’s or Keenan Robinson’s production on special teams? Goff was considered a pretty good special teamer for New York, before he became a starting linebacker. Robinson had a strong special teams reputation in college and that will likely be his role for the next year or two. So while Alexander likely has an edge, it probably is a slight one, and both Goff and Robinson have a far greater edge as quality back-up inside linebackers. Now the easy answer would be for the Skins to keep 5 ILB’s, but that is a pretty high figure. You are only going to keep between 23-25 defensive players so keeping 5 at a position where one of your starters hasn’t missed a single game in the past 13 years, seems unsustainable.

Since Alexander can no longer really be considered an ILB, he needs to make the case that he can be a super utility player. In addition to being the back-up to the back-up inside linebacker, Alexander could be considered a depth outside linebacker and in certain packages defensive end. On offense he’s been working some as a tight end, and it would shock me to hear that he’s taking some full back reps as well.

Now what does all of this mean? Is Alexander really the back-up at all these spots? No, in fact I don’t think he’ll be the back-up at any of them. Instead he’ll make the team due to his versatility. Instead his versatility will be his trademark, and it could allow the team to be more creative in filling out their roster. This is particularly true on game days. The Redskins very well could keep three regular tight ends, but they may not want all three active on most game days.Having Alexander could allow him to be the 3rd TE on some jumbo packages. Alexander would also be able to fill in at a number of positions, in case of injury during the game. While Alexander wouldn’t be a long term solution to fill in for those positions but he should be a decent fill in during the game.

The real question is, will this be enough versatility to merit a spot? It will be close, but I think he edges out a spot for one more season. What do you think? What are the chances he doesn’t make the team?

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What offensive player will have the biggest impact this season for the Redskins outside of rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III? It’s a question with a lot of possible answers but few certainties. I’m going to only focus on skill position guys (mainly as to not get depressed with the state of the offensive line). Now while it might be simple to say that the player with the most yards or catches has the biggest impact, but that isn’t always the case.

Pierre Garcon-WR:

Garcon was the Redskins big free agent signing this year and figures to be the top receiver on the team. Garcon might not be a true number one, but has deep speed and has put up pretty big numbers the last three years (including last year with out Peyton Manning). On the downside Garcon has never been the top option before, and could struggle facing tougher coverages. He’s also had some drop issues in the past, and his deep speed may go to waste some with Griffin lacking a quality line to give him time.

Roy Helu- RB:

Helu figures to be the running back who gets the most carries next season and should be able to gain over a 1,000 yards on the ground. The Redskins are also likely to feature the run more this season then the previous two years, giving Helu a greater chance to showcase himself.  In addition to his rushing ability, Helu figures to play a pretty significant role in the passing game as well, and will likely finish 3rd or 4th on the team in receptions. Helu’s combined production could be key for the Skins success this year, but a lot of it is based on potential. While Helu was fairly productive last season, his yards per carry average (4.2) was influenced by some of his garbage time work where he was able to run draw plays versus 6 man fronts. Helu was also banged up with injuries last year, and the question becomes can he hold up with a starters work load.

Fred Davis-TE:

Davis had a bit of a breakout season last year and probably would have led the team in receptions if not for his 4-game suspension last year. He’s a very athletic pass catching tight end, who has the speed to stretch the field and pick up big yards after the catch. With a rookie QB, Davis has a chance to emerge as the favorite target and a guy who gets a lot of targets because he’s safer than WR’s running deep. Davis should be a favorite red zone target, given his size and mismatch potential. On the downside Davis is not a strong blocker, which can force him to cut down on his overall snaps a bit. Davis would also disappear in games last year, ususally not being productive until the end of the game, when defenses were protecting leads.

Leonard Hankerson- WR:

Hankerson had a rough rookie year as the lockout slowed down his developmental time before the season, and an injury forced him out of the 2nd half of the season. Hankerson is supossedly on schedule and is a favorite to win the 2nd WR job. He’s got a nice size/speed combo, and could find a lot of success in the intermediate/red zone passing game. The downside is of course the fact that the Redskins might not be able to count on a guy as much in coming back from an injury.

Others:

While they can play fairly significant roles on the team, it is hard to imagine any of Tim Hightower, Evan Royster, Santana Moss and Chris Cooley will get enough touches to warrant a spot on this list. Josh Morgan can make an interesting case, but he’s likely to be the 3rd receiver and might not have enough touches.

Who do you think will be the x-factor for the Skins offense and how would you order the 4 guys on this list in terms of being a leader?

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Typically a team’s fanbase is usually accused of overrating a particular player, but in the case of Brian Orakpo the opposite could be true. Orakpo is a former first round pick, who already has two Pro Bowls to his name. In addition Orakpo has led the team in sacks each of his three seasons.

Despite that resume, it seems like a growing number of Redskins fans rate him as no better than a good pass rusher. In fact many fans seem to already believe that Ryan Kerrigan is a better player than Orakpo. Also, more than once this offseason the idea was floated that to recoup the RGIII picks, Orakpo could be traded given the presence of young pass rushers like Markus White and Rob Jackson.

Brian Orakpo is a key component to making sure this defense runs successfully.

Now it is true that the Redskins have at least decent depth at the outside linebacker position, so there can be some understanding why some fans thought that the Skins could part with Orakpo. While that depth is key to give Orakpo and Kerrigan some plays off if needed, or to fill in for a short period of time due to injury, they shouldn’t be relied upon for an extended period of time. With the exception of perhaps London Fletcher, there is no player who’s loss would be more damaging to the Skins then that of Orakpo. Not only would there be a drop off in stats from Orakpo to his replacement, but it could effect the stat lines of the rest of the defense.

Orakpo’s presence on the field frees up the rest of the defense to get after the quarterback with quite a bit more freedom. Now the symbiotic of the defense works both ways, as the additions of Ryan Kerrigan and Stephen Bowen (and Barry Cofield to a lesser extent) did help Orakpo have by some accounts his best season, but the linchpin of it all is Orakpo. Putting Rob Jackson out there with Kerrigan and Bowen is not nearly as fear inspiring to opposing offenses. Sure Jackson might even provide 75% of Orakpo’s individual production (not just sacks, but pressures and hits as well), but it would negatively many other players as well. Despite having another talented pass rusher in Ryan Kerrigan, his production would likely fall (from it’s peak not necessarily last year’s numbers) given that he’d likely shift over to face the LT the majority of snaps. Also he would likely see an increase in double teams, as would some of the linemen, something they didn’t face nearly as often this past season.  While the overall drop in sacks as a team might be no more than seven or eight, the real loss would be far greater.

Sacks might be the most important stat to measure a pass rusher, but it’s not the only thing to go by. Pressures and hits can be nearly as disruptive, and are very important in evaluating a pass rusher. Every quarterback sees their stats and effectiveness negatively impacted when under pressure, whether it is Aaron Rodgers or Mark Sanchez. So by weakening the pass rush you are essentially inviting opposing quarterbacks to put up better numbers against the team. The Redskins defense last year didn’t force many INT’s, but many that did occur were partially brought on by the level of pressure the quarterback was under.

Now this is not to say that I believe Orakpo to be an elite pass rusher, but I do feel that he is on the cusp of being elite. Orakpo’s sack numbers maybe aren’t as flashy as some pass rushers, but he gets after the quarterback quite a bit, and he’s right below the top level guys. One of the bigger knocks on Orakpo is that while he’s among the league leaders in holding calls drawn on him, he doesn’t have the “finishing move” to get to the quarterback. Although it is still an area he needs to work on, Orakpo shouldn’t be negatively graded for drawing holding penalties. While holding penalties don’t come with the loss of down, its a 10-yard loss, which is more than most sacks (sacks are still obviously the ideal). It’s not exactly a bad thing to draw these penalties and they should be taken into some consideration. Orakpo also steadily improved both in run defense and pass coverage last season, making him more of a complete player.

Hopefully entering his fourth season Orakpo will break into that elite echelon of pass rushers, but until then I hope that Redskins fans give him his just due. If the Redskins do return to being a perennial playoff contender soon, it is pretty safe to say Orakpo will be a key part of that.

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