Fantasy Impact: 2013 Rookies

By Guest Writer Matt Campion:

 

Below are the top five rookies at each fantasy-relevant offensive position.  Draft position indicates where the player was ACTUALLY drafted, not my recommended draft position.

 

Quarterback:

EJ Manuel    

Buffalo Bills

Round 1: Pick 16

The most athletic quarterback of the class.  In addition to being the only quarterback taken in the first round, he has the best chance of any rookie quarterback to start week one.  Use caution drafting him for fantasy, as well as any rookie quarterback this year, as he looks to need a few years to develop his skills.

Geno Smith

New York Jets

Round 2: Pick 39

Considered by most to be the best quarterback prospect in the draft, he fell to the Jets in the second round because of big question marks that will need to be answered.  General managers in the league have questioned his maturity and leadership, and many don’t believe the offense he ran at West Virginia will translate to the NFL.  The Jets say this is an open quarterback battle, so it will be worth watching the competition throughout the preseason.  With Sanchez looking worse and worse (three interceptions in fifteen snaps in OTAs in a recent day), Smith should be able to win the job.

Tyler Wilson

Oakland Raiders

Round 4: Pick 112

It’s hard to be completely sold on Matt Flynn as the starter given that the former seventh-round pick has yet to throw his 150^th career pass in his five years in the league.  Also, he got beaten out by a rookie named Wilson last offseason shortly after signing a big contract.  Tyler Wilson certainly has the talent to start at some point this year for the consistently rebuilding raiders.

Matt Barkley

Philadelphia Eagles

Round 4: Pick 98

A likely first-round pick had he entered the draft after his junior season, Barkley is both talented and polished as a proven leader.  Vick has a stranglehold on the starter spot, but when has he ever stayed healthy for a full sixteen games?

Landry Jones

Pittsburgh Steelers

Round 4: Pick 115

Big Ben is once again coming off surgery.  Jones will only get playing time if Roethlisberger is injured, but this situation seems like more of a “when” than “if.”

 

Running Back:

Le’Veon Bell

Pittsburgh Steelers

Round 2: Pick 48

Bell is Rashard Mendenhall’s replacement.  He should have no problem beating out Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman for the starter job.  The Steelers are likely to be enamored with his athleticism.

Giovani Bernard

Cincinnati Bengals

Round 2: Pick 37

Bernard was the first running back taken in the draft.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis was ineffective as a starter last year, averaging below 4 yards per rush.  The organization’s overcommitment to Green-Ellis as the starter allowed him to surpass the thousand-yard rushing mark, but it was largely a product of the rush attempts given.  Something to watch out for: carries for promising rookie sixth round pick, Rex Burkhead.

Eddie Lacy

Green Bay Packers

Round 2: Pick 61

Other than a brief period of serviceable play from undrafted Ryan Grant, the Packers haven’t had good play from the running back position since Ahman Green nearly ten years ago.  The Packers have invested in offensive linemen in recent draft classes, and playing with Aaron Rodgers will certainly give Lacy some running room.

Knile Davis

Kansas City Chiefs

Round 3: Pick 95

There is a dropoff in fantasy value after the top three rookie running backs.  I fully expect Jamaal Charles to start, but Knile Davis is a great second option.  Charles’ torn ACL in 2011 showed that depth at the position is important, and the Chiefs would rather not overload Charles with carries and allow a similar thing to occur.

Montee Ball

Denver Broncos

Round 2: Pick 58

Ball is in a crowded backfield.  Willis McGahee, Ronnie Hillman, and former first-round pick Knowshon Moreno can all expect to get at least the occasional rush attempt.  Because of McGahee’s age, Hillman’s lack of elite talent, and Moreno’s desire to prove the world he is a bust, I’d say Ball has the best chance of remaining rookie running backs to make a fantasy impact, but it’s not by much.

Honorable Mention: Marcus Lattimore (49ers) and Kenjon Barner (Panthers)

 

Wide Receiver:

Tavon Austin

St. Louis Rams

Round 1: Pick 8

Austin came in to the league with the starter job on a silver platter.  Chris Givens is the most proven receiver on the roster with the departures of Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson.  Much of Austin’s success will depend on former first overall pick Sam Bradford.  Amendola was a great fantasy option last season when healthy, so we can expect Bradford’s top target this year to produce big numbers as well.

DeAndre Hopkins

Houston Texans

Round 1: Pick 27

The Texans have had it all on offense in recent years except for a receiver to line up opposite Andre Johnson.  Kevin Walter has somehow been a solid fixture in their starting lineup for years.  Even St. Louis is laughing at Houston for not finding a better starter until now.

Cordarrelle Patterson

Minnesota Vikings

Round 1: Pick 29

Patterson scares me.  He could, and probably should, become the main weapon on the offense other than the great Adrian Peterson.  He has all of the tools, but often seems unmotivated and inconsistent.  Some of the problem was situation, because Tennessee was outmatched talent-wise when playing against most of their conference opponents.  Christian Ponder’s continued improvement could be a huge factor in Patterson’s development.

Keenan Allen

San Diego Chargers

Round 3: Pick 76

Allen easily could have been a first-round pick if not for a PCL sprain suffered last year.  He was unable to participate at the combine because of the injury. Still recovering, he ran a very underwhelming time in the 40-yard dash at his pro day.  Phillip Rivers has everything to prove and has some new offensive linemen to go along with his new weapon.  Allen could easily beat out Danario Alexander and Robert Meachem and be the best receiver in San Diego since Vincent Jackson.

Quinton Patton

San Francisco 49ers

Round 4: Pick 128

All of the 49ers receivers will need to step up to make up for the loss of Michael Crabtree.  Anquan Boldin is sure to start, but there will be a battle between Patton and Mario Manningham for the second spot.  Ultimately, all three will get their receptions in this potent offense.

HM: Robert Woods (Bills), Justin Hunter (Titans), Aaron Dobson (Patriots), Kenny Stills (Saints)

 

Tight End:

 

Tyler Eifert

Notre Dame

Round 1: Pick 21

Eifert was the consensus top tight end in the draft.  Jermaine Gresham is beginning to look like a bust, but the former 2010 first-rounder will likely put up a fight.  Gresham’s athleticism can not be counted out, and it will be interesting to see how he responds to his first real competition.  Eifert has the combination of size, speed, and production that GMs look for when using their first pick on a tight end.  He easily could put up top ten fantasy numbers for his position if he is given playing time.

Jordan Reed

Redskins

Round 3: Pick 85

Fred Davis is coming off of a torn Achilles.  There is little depth at the position behind Davis, so Reed will definitely get playing time early on.  Developing quick chemistry with Robert Griffin III seems like a certainty for any receiving options on the team that actually see the field.

Zach Ertz

Philadelphia Eagles

Round 2: Pick 35

Ertz is a wild card due to his situation.  Nobody really knows what to expect of the Eagles offense. Chip Kelly’s system worked great in college, and if the NFL is anything like that, this could easily be a top five offense.  Brent Celek is very average, and I expect Ertz to see the field about the same amount as the four-year starter.

Travis Kelce

Kansas City Chiefs

Round 3: Pick 63

Kelce is a mystery.  He was suspended for the 2010 season and had an unproductive 2011 as a starter before breaking out last year. Tony Moeaki will probably start, but Kelce will see the field in limited minutes.  Unfortunately, Alex Smith is more of an efficient game manager than gunslinger, so the yardage for tight ends won’t be that impressive; especially considering how often he seemed to overlook his former best weapon, Vernon Davis.

Gavin Escobar

Dallas Cowboys

Round 2: Pick 47

Escobar is in a great situation for the future.  He gets to learn behind one of the best in Jason Witten, and play for a very potent passing attack.  Defenses can’t afford to focus on him with Dez Bryant and Miles Austin. Escobar won’t see the field immediately, but Witten isn’t getting any younger, and he can’t afford to keep playing through his injuries.