Underdog Battle Royale Week 11 Rankings
This feels like a pretty straightforward QB week, with Prescott and Tagovailoa as the clear top options if those teams decide to win big by throwing. We know both of those offenses are so capable of putting up high point totals, it just is a matter of whether or not it’s coming through the air or not (or even on offense in the case of Dallas).
Stroud faces a weak Cardinals secondary, and it’s also a game that should now see some pushback with Murray back on the other side. This Houston offense is rolling, and it won’t be surprising to see another Stroud 300+ and 3 TD game. Herbert’s match-up vs the Packers isn’t the best, but he should still be throwing the ball at a pretty decent rate in this match-up. Green Bay has struggled more against the run of late, so the concern is more of the yardage and points come from the ground, but it could go either way.
I think Goff is like Dak/Tua-lite this week. As this is a game the Lions should be comfortably ahead, it’s just a matter of whether it’s points from the running game or via the air. What is nice about Goff is you can get him later in an ASB or LaPorta stack.
Howell is playing really well overall, and especially of late as Washington has made some changes to help reduce the number of sacks. The Commanders are throwing at one of the highest rates in the league, and Howell’s been very efficient with the ball. The concern here is the Giants might not have a lot of pushback this week, which could cap even how much Washington has been throwing.
I do think taking shots on guys like Allen and Murray makes sense given the dual-threat ability, though Allen has not done well vs the Jets historically. Still, it’s worth a shot as the new offensive coordinator and the Bills’ backs being against the wall could push Allen into total hero mode.
Deeper cuts, but all good match-ups are Geno Smith, Brock Purdy, and Trevor Lawrence. We’ve seen Smith and Purdy have some spike weeks (including this past week), so they are worth looking at, but Lawrence has been a disappointment this year. It’s just not all come together for the Jags passing offense as most expected, and we haven’t seen the 300+ and 3 TD games that we saw from Lawrence a year ago. Maybe that changes this week against a bad Titans secondary, as Jacksonville needs to try to stay ahead of a surging Texans team.
- Christian McCaffrey
- Austin Ekeler
- De’Von Achane
- David Montgomery
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- Josh Jacobs
- Tony Pollard
- Travis Etienne Jr.
- Kenneth Walker III
- Saquon Barkley
This is a very strong RB week with several returning guys from injury and situations in general that are solid enough. Despite still having him listed as the top RB, I think CMC is closer to Ekeler this week than in most weeks, and I don’t see CMC as the 1.1 selection. I would take 2-4 WRs over him typically, as I don’t love the match-up for a ceiling performance. Achane sounds like he will step back into a decent role for Miami, and in this match-up that could lead to another monster game. There is obviously risk with that pick, but we also know the upside here as well.
There is a fair chance that one of the Detroit backs will be the key play this week, which one is really anyone’s guess. I’ll lean toward Montgomery for no other reason than the chance that he’s going up against his former team.
Josh Jacobs‘ usage over the past two weeks has been incredible, and will likely continue the one concern is if the game gets too far out of hand that he ends up sitting late in the game. He does have a great red zone role, so if they are inside the 5 expect him to get a couple cracks at the end zone.
Pollard has been disappointing most weeks lately, but once again he faces a good match-up in a game that the Cowboys figure they should rack up 4-6 offensive TDs. At any point, we could see that 150 combined yards and 2-3 TD game from Pollard.
Etienne’s consistent run of productive games came to an end this past week, and he now faces a tougher Titans defense which is why he’s so low. On the other hand, this is a back whose usage rivals CMC’s and Ekeler’s yet you are getting him 2-3 rounds later. On paper, the Titans are strong vs the run, but a couple of teams have gotten the better of them on the ground. Etienne’s passing usage also should help mitigate any concerns as well as his RZ %.
As for the rest, I think players like Walker, Barkley, Robinson, Conner, and White can all be fine RB 2’s. They aren’t consistent and there are things working against each one, but there is a path for them to produce 17-24 points. A real true sleeper among the rest might be Aaron Jones. The Chargers’ rushing defense has been a big concern all season, so Jones could be a guy who tags them for a couple of long TD runs. It’s riskier since he’s been super inconsistent, and the offense as a whole is weak, but it’s been a defense that has given up a lot of points to opposing backs this year.
- Tyreek Hill
- CeeDee Lamb
- Keenan Allen
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Cooper Kupp
- Stefon Diggs
- Tank Dell
- Puka Nacua
- Davante Adams
- Mike Evans
- Jaylen Waddle
- Deebo Samuel
- Tyler Lockett
- Terry McLaurin
- Christian Kirk
- Noah Brown
- Brandon Aiyuk
- Amari Cooper
This is a nice deep wide receiver week helped by some quarterbacks (Fields and Stafford) coming back. Also a number of passing offenses have pretty decent match-ups this week, so we could see a few more 300 yard 2-4 TD passing games, which should filter nicely to this WR group. At the top I think the top 4 (assuming Allen is healthy) are pretty even and a clear cut above the rest. There is a risk of blowout for the Dolphins, Cowboys, and Lions, but we’ve seen their top receivers still have some big games in those settings.
I think it’s likely that one of the Rams receivers have a good game, but it is tough to say whether it will be Kupp or Nacua. Feel kinda similar with the Texans receivers, especially with Nico Collins status up in the air. Still like Tank Dell, but it could be Noah Brown or Collins if he comes back.
As for the rest I think there are a number of other good number 2 WR or Flex options. Waddle has been putting up good numbers lately, we are seeing at least one SF receiver producing most weeks and they have a favorable match-up. Adams has seen a big bump in upside since the QB change, and with the expectation that the Raiders will be down he could rack up the targets. The offensive scoring upside is a bit questionable though.
A couple of receivers that I like a lot, but carry risk are Evans, Lockett, McLaurin, and Kirk. All have the upside for 8-10 catches 125+ yards and 1-2 TDs. They also carry a bit more risk because the way their offenses function they aren’t the absolute focal point like most of the receivers at the top, also many of these offenses have been settling for a lot of FGs this season, lowering their fantasy upside. Still if you hit them at the right time, they can elevate you well above the field.
The tight end position this week lacks some of the biggest names, but I don’t think that is necessarily a reason to reach for LaPorta or Kittle in the early rounds. Both have the top-end upside, but they both are part of offenses that could feature numerous weapons. They could easily have just above average or even worse games, and you passed on the higher-end RB and WR to get them.
I like waiting for Schultz/Kincaid/Ferguson window of TEs, or even some of the guys who won’t typically get drafted. Musgrave, Kmet, and Mayer all have questionable QB play, but all figure to have good Red zone usage so getting a TD could spike them. Thomas and Engram are on much better offenses, but will enough targets and the TDs go their way, make them a risk as well. All five carry some risk, but if you hit a TD from them and a handful of additional catches you should be fine this week.