Mistakes I’ve made in NFL DFS the last Two Seasons: Part 1 – Intro
After nine seasons of playing NFL DFS, I was profitable for six seasons in a row (2014-2019 NFL seasons). I have enjoyed several 4-figure wins (still chasing the 5+ figure win) and I happily received tax documents for my winnings! But the last two NFL seasons (2020-2021) have not been profitable. As if the 2020s weren’t rough enough, now have I lost my edge at DFS, which I enjoy so much?
Note: I love using Rototracker to help me track my data.
Thankfully, I’m still profitable for NFL over 9 years, with an 11.34% ROI and I’ve cashed in 25% of my GPP contests. For context, I’m a mid-stakes GPP player, hand builder, and mostly play single entry and 3 max contests. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings and I play all formats – Classic, Showdown, and Tiers. I also enjoy playing the short slates.
But obviously, improvements are needed in my DFS game. So I wanted to write a series to take a hard, honest look at what I’ve done wrong in the last two seasons and where I can improve.
Issue #1 – Clear Head & Too Much Volume:
Let’s start with the obvious. Maybe the challenges of the 2020s and what that has done to me mentally are a big part of the problem. Full disclosure, I have not handled the Covid era all that well. The last two years have affected my business, finances, social life, physical health, and mental health. Don’t worry…I’ll be alright! I just think that because I was unhappy and stressed, it caused me to play more volume with an unclear mind.
You know how they say a gambler shouldn’t “chase their losses”? I think I was playing more volume to try to lift my spirits, and in turn, it did the opposite. My volume played from 2019 to 2020 was 31% higher and I played well over double from 2019 to 2021! I try to live my life with a quality over quantity mindset, and clearly, I need to apply that to my DFS game. Especially since I am a hand builder player. Obviously, this does not apply to mass multi-entry players that use optimizers.
So step 1 is identified! Clear eyes, full hearts…Can’t lose! But in analyzing my results, I think there are a lot of other improvements I need to make. This is what I’ll be covering in this series: