Mistakes I’ve made in NFL DFS the last Two Seasons: Part 5 – What Type of Player am I?
As you read from Part 1, I need to make improvements to my NFL DFS game to get back in the green! I am determined to find my mistakes and make improvements for the 2022 season. In Part 5 of this series, I take a hard look at what type of DFS player I am and what tools I should lean into more.
Issue/Mistake #5 – Figure out what type of DFS player I am:
I already noted in Part 1 of this series that I’m a mid-stakes GPP player, hand builder, and mostly play single entry and 3 max contests, usually between 1,000-5,000 entries. So what do I mean by “what type of DFS player I am?”
Some people lean into the math more and the projections, while others are more “feel” type players because they watch every single game. And it ranges anywhere in between. I have watched super successful DFS players with polar opposite strategies.
I think the problem for me the last two years is I’d rotate through leaning into different styles. One week I was focused on match-ups. Another week I was leaning into projections and the math. Then another week I’ll focus on any other data point that I can find. Another week I’m focused more on narratives, and what I’ve seen. I’ll analyze this more below, but I think it’s alright to be a hybrid player, as long as I find a process that works for me.
Then the other problem I’ve identified by using Rototracker, is what contests on each site am I best at? I already mentioned that I was playing too much total volume, especially on Sundays. I was playing every type of contest on both sites. Turns out, after analyzing my results, I’m best at Classic on FanDuel and Showdown and Tiers on DraftKings. Yet because I was playing too much Classic on DraftKings too, I was spreading myself too thin.
Answer: Research how I had success (and in which types of contests):
Type of Contests:
As you can see from the graphic above, I was playing in many more DraftKings contests than FanDuel contests. Again, that is because I was playing several types of contests on DraftKings and mainly just Classic on FanDuel. I do play the single-game format on FanDuel for the Primetime games.
My plan this season for Sundays is to mainly play Tiers and Showdowns on DraftKings and focus on Classic on FanDuel. That way I’m not spreading myself too thin and I’m focusing on my areas of strength for each site.
Finding an Edge in Short Slates & Niche Contests:
I also believe that by playing the short slates you can have an edge. Because as I mentioned in Part 2, the field is sharper. And a lot of the content around the industry is focused on the Classic Main Slate. So if I’m playing more 1 pm and 4 pm only, I can find different strategies and leverage spots that people aren’t discussing.
As some of you may know, I love playing Tiers contests. I will be covering Tiers content extensively here on Fanspeak.com this season. But Tiers, Showdowns, In-game Showdowns, and Snake drafts are more niche. I think by playing more niche contests that have less content about them, you’re gaining an edge in this ultra-competitive DFS field.
My Process/DFS Style:
Finally, I think it’s fine to have a hybrid style for my process. I’ll continue to analyze various data points, projections, match-ups, etc. But I think I’m a pretty good “feel” player.
Some of my most successful wins have been when I’ve played off a narrative or “told a story” as people like to say when talking about Showdowns. This season I’m going to focus on data that helps me have an edge and combine that with what I’m seeing on Sundays. And hopefully, that leads to getting back in the green overall!
-Part 2 – The Field is Sharper
-Part 3 – Information Overload Paralysis
-Part 4 – Building Lineups Too Late
-Part 5 – What Type of DFS Player am I?