FanSpeak

Fanspeak Analysis: There’s no magic formula, but QB stability, IOL priorities are a good start

December 22, 2019
By Jake Rigdon
Generally speaking, teams devote far less draft capital on guards and centers than at most other positions, including offensive tackle.
But as a Fanspeak Analysis reveals, that line of thinking may need to change.
Below concludes Fanspeak’s series on the 2020 interior offensive line class. Part 3 examines other factors in play when it comes to making the playoffs.

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Examining the past three drafts and the two most recent playoff seasons reveals some interesting statistics, including:

  • 75 percent of all interior offensive linemen are either starters, part-time starters or are at least on a team’s active roster.
  • Nearly 80 percent of the playoff teams drafted either a guard or a center.

However, drafting an interior lineman doesn’t guarantee a trip to the playoffs.

Just ask Cincinnati, Washington and Arizona.

Those three are among eight teams that drafted at least one guard or center since 2017 but failed to make the playoffs. Those teams include:

  • Arizona (3 IOLs)
  • Miami (2)
  • Washington (3)
  • Cincinnati (4)
  • Detroit (1)
  • NY Giants (1)
  • Green Bay (2)
  • Denver (1)

The only surprise out of that group is Green Bay. However, at 11-3, the Packers will likely end their two-season playoff drought.

Bad drafting, bad luck or both

So what’s the excuse for the other teams?

Some of it can be blamed on bad luck or just plain bad drafting. Everyone was high on former UTEP center Will Hernandez in 2018, including the Giants, who drafted him with the second pick of the second round, No. 34 overall. Thus far, however, Hernandez has underwhelmed. While it’s still early in his career, Hernandez’s 58.0 overall grade by Pro Football Focus is the second-worst on an already below-average starting offensive line.

Then there’s Cincinnati, which managed to draft two starters in recent years – but that comes with a bit of an asterisk. Injuries limited former Ohio State center Billy Price, a first-round pick in 2018, to 10 games, all starts, his rookie year. Price has started only half of his team’s games this year (seven), all as an injury fill-in at either left or right guard. One of the players who started in his place is left guard Michael Jordan, the team’s fourth-round rookie this year out of Ohio State. Jordan has started seven games.

https://twitter.com/UMichFootball/status/1154181468035461120

Cincinnati also drafted a guard and a center in the fifth and seventh rounds in recent years, but both are already out of the league. While that might not seem like a surprise for late-round picks, only six interior offensive lineman out of 51 are no longer on an active roster or practice squad – and Cincinnati drafted two of them. Plus, a 50-50 hit rate on IOL is well below the 75 percent overall league rate of interior lineman drafted since 2017 who are still on an active roster.

But the one common denominator among all teams, except Green Bay?

Inconsistent quarterback play.

QBs play a role in this

Detroit’s Matthew Stafford has been one of the few bright spots on the team most of his 11 years in the league, but he’s only played in eight games this year due to injury. As for the other teams, all have young or rookie quarterbacks, some of whom replaced aging and/or injured veterans.

Washington, for example, has been very successful in drafting interior linemen, as the team found a starting center in the sixth round of the 2018 draft (Chase Roullier of Wyoming). The team also drafted guards in the fourth and fifth rounds this year. Both are on the active roster, and one of them, Wes Martin of Indiana, has started three games.

But Washington’s quarterback situation is well-documented, as the inconsistencies continue under center, now manned by first-round rookie Dwayne Haskins of Ohio State.

While Washington and Arizona, with No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray, continue on with rookie QBs, Cincinnati would be wise to follow Minnesota’s example.

The Minnesota model

The only team to draft more interior linemen than the Bengals since 2017 is the Vikings, who have drafted five. That includes rookie starting center Garrett Bradbury of N.C. State, who was taken in the first round. Of the other four, three have started games, including Appalachian State guard Colby Gossett, who’s now on Cleveland’s practice squad.

https://twitter.com/BigJohn74_/status/1156382780202377218

Bradbury was the only first-rounder. The others were taken in the third- through fifth-round.

How the teams have dealt with inconsistent quarterback play, though, are vastly different.

Minnesota went to the playoffs in 2018 largely due to Case Keenum’s career year. Instead of hoping Keenum could do it again, the team signed Kurt Cousins in the offseason. Although the team missed the playoffs that season, the Vikings appear well on their way this year with an 11-3 record.

Cincinnati, by comparison, has seen Andy Dalton’s play slowly diminish over the years, to the point that rookie Ryan Finley replaced him in the lineup. Even now, there’s no guarantee the Bengals will address the QB situation with the likely No. 1 overall draft pick in 2020.

The bottom line?

There’s no magic QB-center-guard formula that guarantees a team playoff success.

But teams that draft an interior offensive lineman are more likely to make the playoffs, as recent history suggests, especially when there’s some stability at quarterback.

Part 1: Is 2020 a ‘bad’ year to draft an interior offensive lineman?

Part 2: Teams that make IOL a draft priority typically make the playoffs