Fanspeak Analysis: Teams that make IOL a draft priority typically make the playoffs

Generally speaking, teams devote far less draft capital on guards and centers than at most other positions, including offensive tackle.

But as a Fanspeak Analysis reveals, that line of thinking may need to change.

Below is Fanspeak’s series on the 2020 interior offensive line class. Part 2 examines the teams that are drafting guards and centers and whether that leads to playoff success.

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Teams that have made the playoffs the past few years have something in common: Most of them drafted at least one guard or center during the past three drafts.

That includes New England, whose only interior offensive lineman during that time is a fourth-round rookie, Hjalte Froholdt of Arkansas, who has missed the entire season due to a preseason injury.

The list also includes Dallas, which, despite having one of the better offensive lines in football, still drafted an interior lineman the past two drafts.

And it includes New Orleans. The Saints drafted a Day 1 starter in Texas A&M rookie center Erik McCoy one year after finding a backup guard in the seventh round who’s still managed to start three games.

So, who’s not drafting interior offensive linemen?

It’s a who’s-who of teams that routinely pick at or near the bottom of the draft, with a few notable exceptions.

Who’s drafting an IOL and who’s not

Only eight teams have failed to draft an interior lineman since the 2017 draft. Those teams include Cleveland, the New York Jets, Oakland/Las Vegas, San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.

Kentucky’s Logan Stenberg highlights the top Senior Bowl offensive linemen along the interior 😤 pic.twitter.com/X0L0gUq0c1

— PFF College (@PFF_College) December 20, 2019

Take away Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, and the combined record of the other six teams is 101-174-1 since 2017, good for a 37 percent win percentage. And it could be much worse had it not been for one good season by Jacksonville (10-6 in 2017) and San Francisco (11-3 this season).

Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are the exceptions, as both are perennial playoff contenders but have not drafted an interior lineman the past three drafts. Still, even adding those two teams doesn’t impact the winning percentage much, bumping it up to 43 percent and a combined record of 160-206-2.

I went to today’s St Thomas-St John’s game (D3, MN) to check out SJU LT Ben Bartch — one of top small-school prospects in the 2020 #NFLDraft class.

Former Oregon prep TE who played some H-Back before transitioning to LT.

Up to 6’6/306 and carries weight well. Dominant today… pic.twitter.com/t4cdgTrqvH

— Thor Nystrom (@thorku) October 19, 2019

Most playoff teams draft a guard or center

Fanspeak examined the teams that made the playoffs the past two seasons, then compared that to the 2017, 2018 and 2019 drafts.

Nineteen different teams made the playoffs at least once the past two seasons. Out of that total, only three did not draft an interior offensive lineman between 2017-19: Philadelphia, who went to the playoffs both years, Jacksonville, who made the playoffs in 2017, and Pittsburgh. But recent history shows that’s not the “norm,” as 15 different playoff teams drafted at least one center or guard.

In other words, almost 80 percent of the teams that have made the playoffs the past two seasons have drafted at least one interior lineman since the 2017 draft.

Friday: Is 2020 a ‘bad’ year to draft an interior offensive lineman?

Coming tomorrow: There’s no magic formula, but focusing on the interior offensive line certainly helps