With week 1 starting here are reasonable projections for the Redskins offensive players with some fantasy value:
-Smith figures to utilized a similar amount as Kirk Cousins has been the past few years, but his attempts will probably end up below 600. Part of this will be due to Smith rushing more and scrambling when things break down. Also, if Adrian Peterson improves the running game, the Redskins may be a little more balanced this year. Peterson should also keep Smith’s passing TDs in the 25 range +/- 2. Expect this offense to continue to be among the top 10-12 in the league with Smith at the helm.
-Peterson should be a positive addition to the Redskins offense and rushing game, but the Redskins shouldn’t expect the Peterson of old. He will probably flirt with 1,000 rushing yards, but might come a little short if he doesn’t get closer to 250 carries. His biggest value will be inside the 10 yard line, where he gives the Redskins a legitimate rushing threat that they haven’t had the past couple of years. Peterson is unlikely to contribute much in the passing game, outside of a handful of dump-offs.
-Thompson might not be back to 100% yet, but he should come close to the production he was putting up last season. I would imagine that his carries are pretty capped, especially with Peterson now on the team, but Thompson’s value will mainly come through the passing game. He is obviously better in PPR formats, but this is a player who should flirt with 800-900 combined yards and 4-6 TDs.
-Reed is healthy to start the year, but the big question is of course how long can it last. Even without a full season we’ve seen Reed put up big fantasy numbers, and be one of the top TEs in the league. I would knock down Reed a little just because the Redskins now have so many weapons that even if Reed plays 12-14 games, he will have to split some work. If Reed plays near the full season he should be still a top 10 fantasy TE, but probably doesn’t have the upside to be a top 3 or 5.
-Davis has actually been more explosive than Reed these past two seasons in this offense (and throughout his career), but he’s clearly going to be the number two option whenever Reed is in the line-up. Davis can still be a productive fantasy player and a TE streamer in fantasy, despite all the weapons the Redskins have. Also, it is worth noting that Alex Smith is very familiar for Davis from their time together in San Francisco. It’s possible he starts to get more looks in the Red zone, but it’s likely he’s the 3rd option in the RZ behind Doctson and Reed.
-Crowder is the receiver most likely to lead the Redskins in catches this year and that should (though not guaranteed) lead to the most receiving yards as well. It’s possible that Crowder gets even a larger target share and challenges for 1,000 receiving yards, but I’d guess the offense is just too spread out for anyone to reach that plateau. Crowder also doesn’t have a lot of TD equity and will likely be in the 3-5 receiving TD range.
-Redskins fans will likely be disappointed if Doctson doesn’t hit the 1,000 yard level, but he just isn’t likely to reach that mark in this offense. The Redskins could have 6 different players with 500 or more receiving yards, that makes it very spread out and really tough for any one player to dominate in any one area for fantasy. Doctson will be a big play receiver, so his yards could spike if he gets a few more deep passes. His volume is likely to be relatively capped, but if he gets hot he could see a few more targets go his way. I don’t think he will lead the Redskins in catches, but if the big plays are there and he sees a few more targets, he could lead in receiving yards and TDs. Expect Doctson and Reed to see the lionshare of Red Zone targets this year.
-Richardson comes in as a free agent and hopes to fill the DeSean Jackson role as a deep threat burner on the outside in the offense. Richardson should be a low volume guy who has some spike weeks of fantasy relevance when he breaks a few big plays. If the Redskins had fewer passing game options, maybe he would have bigger numbers, but it’s likely he’s at the bottom of the Redskins pecking order (or tied with Vernon Davis). That isn’t a knock on Richardson, just goes to show how deep this passing attack is.