Playoff Betting: The Chances of the Texans Upsetting the Chiefs

Steve O Speak

 

When the dust settles on the 2024 NFL season, it’ll be interesting to see what it is made of the Houston Texan’s impact on the league. They were, in effect, one of the quieter teams in the league, not making waves beyond their fanbase. Yet, they made the Playoffs for the second season in succession and were impressive in gaining wild-card victories for the second season. They are a decent team and deserve a little more respect.

The reward for winning a topsy-turvy game over the LA Chargers is a much more challenging – on paper – game against the defending champions in the Divisional Round. Playing the No.1 seed on their turf is always tricky, so the sportsbooks’ Super Bowl odds have Houston as the rank outsiders to somehow triumph at Caesars Superdome on February 9. Their odds are as high as +5500 with some sportsbooks to win Super Bowl LIX. Few pundits give them a chance, either.

The Chiefs’ performances have not matched results.

Yet, you might argue that some ingredients are in place for an upset on Saturday. Not least, the Chiefs have not been as good as they look on paper all season. A 15-2 record cannot be fluked, so we are not saying that this is a bad team – far from it – yet there has been a sense that the Chiefs have been winning games by the skin of their teeth all season. That’s been backed up by the stats, with the Chiefs having a remarkable tally of winning games by a score or less.

That said, the Chiefs did improve across Christmas and the New Year period, and the additional week’s rest provided the Bye as the No.1 seed will also stand them in good stead. We should also note that the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes was impressive when the teams clashed in December, with the Chiefs picking up a 27-19 victory that was not as close as the score reflected. It also marked the fourth straight defeat for the Texans at the hands of Super Bowl champions. It’s going to take something special to change the narrative.

So, what price for an upset? The Chiefs are -440 on the money line with DraftKings, and the Texans are priced at +340. It’s tilting toward the Chiefs. Yet, we would also look at the spread at 8.5, which suggests this will be close. Sportsbooks work on data, and they’ll have factored in those tight Chiefs’ wins throughout the regular season: Only three of their 15 regular season wins were by more than 10 points.

The Texans’ inconsistency has already cost them this season.

The problem for Texans fans is that they are perhaps unsure of what version of their team will show up. We have noted across the Wild Card games that the teams that have jumped out early usually went on to win, with the Ravens and Bills notable examples. The Texans had the opposite issue, starting slowly and growing into the game against the Chargers. They were much better in the second half when they outscored their opponents 22 to 6. Against the Chiefs, they will have to be at their best for the entire game.

The Texans’ inconsistency has blighted them all season. Despite making the Playoffs, they recorded some poor performances against weak teams across the campaign. Yet, they beat some outstanding teams, including the Buffalo Bills, in a pulsating 23-20 victory. That level of performance is exactly what they need to win the team going for three Super Bowl victories in a row. The Chiefs are heavy favorites – and that’s understandable. But the assumption is that they have coasted through the season and will naturally raise their performance levels in the Playoffs. If they don’t, and the Texans play to their full potential, a shock could be on the cards.


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