Last week I broke down how I like to hunt for value on sportsbooks for NBA prop bets. Again, I find value spots in players that play a lot of minutes, high points per minute players or players that have new roles due to injury. In this series between the Suns and Mavericks, there are not a lot of really good value spots I like. Rather I like pushing the 3’s, points, assists, rebounds or player combos.
As I noted in yesterday’s article, I love Brian Matthews’ daily article over at Oddschecker that breaks down player’s consistency. See below the players I like in each category. This is based on their consistency based on Matthew’s article and also how they performed in Game 1 of this series.
I like pushing the Points/Rebounds/Assists for two players, and that’s of course Luka Doncic and Devin Booker. Since coming back from injury, Booker has filled the stat sheet more, and its only a matter of time before he gets back to shooting lights out. We know any given game, Doncic can take over and put up a triple-double while putting the team on his back. That is why I like PRA for both of these stars tonight. I like them to lead their teams in back and forth battle.
All of these guys can knock down anywhere from 3-5 3’s on any given night. If they’re hot behind the arc, they can hit 5 easily and even exceed it. If they are cold, you may not hit the 3’s line you need. But that’s the nature of betting on 3-pointers.
-Dorian Finney-Smith: As you can see from Matthew’s report, DFS has 5+ rebounds in 6 of 7 games so I like that line.
-Reggie Bullock: Bullock also has 5 or more rebounds in 6 of 7 games. Both these players are going to play 35-40 minutes.
Which props are your favorite to target for this game?