We are getting toward the end of the first round of the NBA Playoffs. Each game I feel like I’m learning a little more on player usage and coaching strategies that I can use to my benefit in betting on NBA props.
One strategy I like employing in betting on NBA props is to look for the value lines. As tempting as it is to want to focus on just the stars, I think you can actually gain more leverage when betting for value. I identify these value lines as low point lines with even money odds or better.
-Players who play a lot of minutes but don’t typically score a ton of points. But, they can easily exceed their point total if they get hot. This is especially true for players that take a decent amount of 3-point attempts. See Smart, Marcus.
-Players who do NOT play a lot of minutes, but DO score when they are in the game. See McGee, JaVale.
-Players who are in new roles because of an injury. See Allen, Grayson.
I wanted to look at tonight’s Phoenix Suns vs. New Orleans Pelicans game as an example. You have multiple players that fill all three of these roles I mentioned above. Because of the Devin Booker injury, players like Cameron Johnson, Cameron Payne and Landry Shamet are getting more minutes. Players like Herb Jones and Landry Nance are getting good run, which can allow them to reach or exceed their points line. And then there’s JaVale McGee. He gets limited minutes, but is a great points per minute producer.
So this is the Same Game Parlay I cooked up on FanDuel Sportsbook. You can of course bet these lines individually too. Let me know what you think!