Best Ball Big Board – Top 10 Overvalued Players

Every best ball draft season, I write monthly articles about my fades and top targets. For the Pre-Draft Big Board contests, I have players that I have ranked much higher or much lower than their current ADP.

So here are my top 10 players whose ADP is too high (Overvalued) in my opinion. I am fading or very underweight these players and will be end up very underweight all these players in the Big Board contests.

Early Picks:

I noted several times during this Big Board best ball drafting season that I’m willing to take upside risks, especially in these 20 round/25% advance rate contests. However, that applies more to mid and later round picks. I want to nail my early picks.

So, if I’m somewhat balanced in Round 1, I want to have stands in Rounds 2-5. That helped me last year to be overweight on the running backs over receivers in those rounds.

This year, its more there are certain players or teams in Rounds 2-5 that I find fantasy unappealing, and I want to have a very underweight stance in these Big Board contests.

-WR Tyreek Hill (Current ADP 22.2)

When you’ve seen the decline on an aging player, especially one that relies on speed, it’s best to jump off as opposed to hoping for a bounce back. Maybe Hill’s disappointing season was just a combo of the wrist injury and the games QB Tua Tagovailoa was out. But even when Tua came back, we saw plenty of disappointing Hill games, something we were not used to. I would much rather target the other players in the late 2nd-round.

-WR Zay Flowers (Current ADP 43.5)

I was out on Flowers all last best ball season and I was correct in that fade. I’m shocked he hasn’t dropped more. On a touchdown hunting format like Underdog, why are we targeting the weapon that is the 4th most likely to score on his team in the betting market? Whether the Ravens keep Mark Andrews or not, both Andrews and Isiah Likely had more touchdowns than Flowers. The addition of D’Andre Hopkins is not the main reason for this fade, but that adds another potential target in the red zone, likely at least 40% or more of the time.

Chiefs (Not All of them):

Two years in a row, a lot of the Chiefs have been a disappointment in fantasy football. We hear, “they don’t need to go all out” and save it for postseason. Which I never understood, because they should have lost a lot more of those one score games last year. So why am I going to invest in this offense if they are just average from a fantasy standpoint, and their prices have gone down some, but are still costly. I would simply rather invest in higher octane offenses.

-QB Patrick Mahomes (Current ADP 77.1)

Finished as QB11 in fantasy points per game and going as QB6. I’m looking for QBs to outperform their ADP and we now have two years in a row of disappointment from Mahomes in fantasy.

-WR Rashee Rice (Current ADP 48.3)

One of the Chiefs’ main weapons is coming off a unique PLC injury, one that we don’t have a lot of data for players returning from that kind of injury. To add to that, Rice will likely serve a suspension this season, likely for several games, though we are still waiting when and how long that will be. Again, I’m less willing to take on those risks in the first 5 rounds.

-TE Travis Kelce (Current ADP 108.9)

Talk about seeing the decline, we’ve seen the decline in Kelce’s play for multiple seasons. I truly thought he was going to retire, after it looked like he was running in mud most this season, especially the most important game, the Super Bowl. Postseason Kelce, my ass! I would much rather target TEs before him like Jonnu Smith or rookie Tyler Warren or TEs after him.

*Honorable Mention:  Isiah Pacheco – I’m holding off in Big Board because I would not be surprised if they draft a rookie RB on day 1 or 2 in the NFL Draft. If they do NOT draft a RB early, then I’ll take Pacheco shares in regular best ball contests this summer.

Jets WR/RB:

This is another team that I don’t have a strong desire to target this early in best ball drafts. Yes, I think Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall are incredibly talented. But I’m not confident QB Justin Fields and this Jets’ offense can lift them up to pay off these high prices.

-WR Garrett Wilson (Current ADP 26.7)

-RB Breece Hall (Current ADP 28.0)

Veteran/2nd Year Running Backs:

I’ve been very vocal on shows, articles, twitter, etc. that I love this rookie running back class and I think they are going to displace a lot of veterans. I’m leaning heavily into this rookie RB class in Big Board drafts.

-RB Tyrone Tracy (Current ADP 76.7)

Tracy may not be replaced by a rookie RB, but I think he’ll have a RB he’ll share the backfield with more this season. I also just like the players that go around Tracy much more.

-RB D’Andre Swift (Current ADP 114.8)

Ben Johnson has already replaced Swift once, I think it’s likely the Bears draft a RB early behind this revamped offensive line. Maybe even Ashton Jeanty.

–Brian Robinson Jr. (Current ADP 109.1)

As a Washington fan, as much as I like Brian Robinson Jr., he’s coming into the last year of his deal. I think Adam Peters and company are sharp and will take advantage of this amazing rookie running back class and draft his replacement. If its a day 1 or day 2 draft pick, then this is bad for Robinson’s value.

*Honorable Mention:  Jaguars RBs, Jaylen Warren, Rhamondre Stevenson

I am also attacking rookie RBs over most 2nd year RBs, because there’s a chance they could be displaced by these rookie RBs as well. We’ll obviously have a lot more information for regular best ball season after the NFL Draft. But I’m making a big stand on the rookie RBs (see my Undervalued Player targets) over most 2nd year or vet RBs.