Best Ball – Big Board: Top 10 Undervalued Players

Every best ball draft season, I write monthly articles about my fades and top targets. For the Pre-Draft Big Board contests, I have players that I have ranked much higher or much lower than their current ADP.

So here are my top 10 players whose ADP is too low, (Undervalued) in my opinion. I am buying these players and will be overweight all these players in the Big Board contests.

Early Picks:

-RB Christian McCaffery (Current ADP 14.7)

For a lot of these undervalued players, there is risk, but in my opinion the reward outweighs the risk. We have McCaffery going early to mid 2nd-round. Yes, he had a massively disappointing season filled with injuries. But this is a perennial early 1st-round pick that could easily go back to being RB 1-3 this season. The 49ers had the worst injury luck across the board last season, McCaffery included. But if he can stay healthy, I love the value of a top RB on a top offense.

-WR DJ Moore (Current ADP 30.5)

It was a very disappointing season for DJ Moore and the Bears’ offense. But under HC Ben Johnson, I expect a massive turnaround. Just like the risky players, the underperforming players that are primed for a bounce-back season are ones I want to target. The Bears’ have already aggressively addressed their offensive line issues. I expect more to be added to the Bears offense in free agency and the NFL Draft, but not other massive competition for Moore’s targets. I love when I can get Moore in the 3rd round.

Mid-Round Quarterbacks:

-QB Brock Purdy (Current ADP 98.8)

As I mentioned with McCaffery, everything went wrong for the 49ers last season, and Purdy still finished as QB9 in points per game. He’s now going as QB12 and I like him to push closer to QB5 PPG this season as long as the 49ers’ health runs better. Similar to McCaffery I want to be overweight this offense when things go right.

Purdy won’t fall past ADP much because his stacking partners are drafted before him. But whenever I have at least one or two 49ers drafted, I’m targeting Purdy.

-QB Drake Maye (Current ADP 116.9)

Maye played on the worst offense, with terrible weapons and offensive line, and he still looked impressive in his rookie season. You saw the “IT” factor traits that made him a top 3 pick. He had 421 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns with apparently no designed runs. You saw his strong arm and ability to keep plays alive.

Now add in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and likely multiple weapons and upgrades along the offensive line, and I think Maye could make a massive jump as an NFL QB and especially in fantasy football. I think he has top 5 QB upside and he’s being drafted as QB15.

-QB Dak Prescott (Current ADP 122.3)

It was a disastrous season for Prescott and the Cowboys, but he’s just one year removed from being a top 5 fantasy QB. I actually think Brian Schottenheimer as HC will help with consistency for Prescott and the Cowboys offense. The Cowboys are likely to add a couple weapons (RB & WR) in the NFL Draft and I expect a bounce-back year for Prescott. He’s being drafted as QB16 so I feel very confident he can outperform this ADP significantly.

Rookies:

-RB Omarion Hampton (Current ADP 50)

After an impressive NFL Combine, there is no doubt in my mind, that Hampton will be drafted in Round 1, likely to a competitive team. Steve was high on him before the Combine and even higher on him after. Hampton can be a workhorse RB in the NFL and I want to have a very overweight stance on Hampton.

-RB Cam Skataboo (Current ADP 118.3)

Steve has also been high on Skataboo throughout the entire Pre-Draft process. He did not run at the NFL Combine, but had excellent vertical and broad jumps. Unless he has a terrible 40 at his Pro Day, Skataboo’s skillset should give him a nice floor/ceiling combo in the NFL. Hopefully he gets a great landing spot, but I’m massively overweight Skataboo at this price.

-WR Travis Hunter (Current ADP 118.6)

We covered why we are very bullish on Travis Hunter in this article and this show. Bottom line, he’s right with Tet McMillian as the best receiver in this draft class. I’m willing to take the risk that he’ll be used enough be a massive hit at this ADP. If he doesn’t get enough WR snaps, then in a 20-round and 25% advance rate contest, it doesn’t hurt as bad. The upside is worth the risk, the name of the game for best ball!

*Honorable Mention (late round rookie receivers – Jayden Higgins, Jack Bech, Jalen Royals, Jaylin Noel)

Late Round Picks:

-WR Adam Thielen (Current ADP 168.7)

Thielen had another strong year in points per game, finishing as WR23. Yet again, he’s drafted toward the end of drafts. With Bryce Young looking much improved at the end of the season and Thielen still his main target, I like the aging vet at this price. Even if he’s a floor play, he helps especially in builds when you’re taking big swings on receivers like Travis Hunter or other rookies.

-TE Mike Gesicki (Current ADP 199.4)

This one is easy, he just got paid by the Bengals to be their TE1 on one of the NFL’s top offenses that throws at a high rate. Note, it doesn’t seem like we’re going to get a massive upgrade to the Bengals’ defense, so I like getting access to their offense late in drafts.

Addition – 11th Undervalued Player:

-RB Najee Harris (ADP 97.0)

Now that Harris has landed with the Chargers, I expect him to be the 1A with whoever is added to this backfield. The Chargers could add a RB in the draft, but I don’t think it will be a 1st or 2nd round pick. If I’m correct, and I’m getting Harris who has consistently played and had 1K yard seasons in this area, I’m happy. I need to start drafting more Harris to get overweight stance.