Meg’s Best Ball Biggest Fades – July

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I wrote a monthly series of fades I made in Best Ball last summer and it was a useful exercise. So let’s run it back!

Here are a couple of things I like to keep in mind when thinking about fading or being underweight in Best Ball:

-Fading in Best Ball is very different than DFS. If the player you faded outperforms their ADP, you’re team is not dead.

-Reasons to fade in Best Ball – weak team offense, injury risks, difficult schedule, difficult playoff schedule, etc. But probably the biggest reason you will fade a player in best ball is that you think he is being overvalued or his ADP is too high. In best ball, even if you are drafting 150 teams, you still want to make stands.

-And on Underdog Fantasy, it is fine to make strong stands and fade players if you feel strongly they will underperform their ADP. Especially on Underdog and DraftKings, because even if a player has an amazing season but they have a weak playoff run, your fade was correct.

I faded QB Jalen Hurts and RB Josh Jacobs for the most part in 2022. And I still had a 27% advance rate that year and had a team make the BBM3 Finals.

And believe me, I’m taking an L on those fades and acknowledged I was wrong on those players. But on Underdog and DraftKings it didn’t hurt me because Jacobs had a very weak playoffs overall (especially quarter & semi-finals) and Hurts was injured and out for the semi-finals and finals.

-But one or both of these things need to happen to have success even making some incorrect fades. Most importantly, you have to be correct on a lot of your stands of players you have high exposure to in your portfolio AND/OR the stud players you faded are out or have a poor best ball playoffs (Weeks 15-17)

This is all to say, don’t be afraid to make big stands or fades, especially on Underdog. So with that, below are the players I’m fading or underweight exposure through this midpoint of July.

This could change for me as their ADPs change this summer, so I’ll continue to revisit this each month as well. Also, I’m only talking about fades for the top 100 picks/players with rising ADPs/very strong stands.

 

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Meg’s Best Ball Fades Mid-July:

QB:

-I don’t have any major QB fades in top 100 ADP.

-I do have a big underweight position on the rookie QBs in general. That is scary, but from our research last year, CJ Stroud rookie seasons are an outlier and not the norm. 

-I’m also underweight QBs like Justin Fields and JJ McCarthy (rookie) who could be a total zero.

-Finally, other QBs later that I’m very underweight on are Deshaun Watson, Geno Smith, and Daniel Jones. I like too many other quarterbacks priced near them more.

 

RB:

Jonathan Taylor – It’s not that I don’t believe in Jonathan Taylor‘s talent or the Colts’ offense. This is more a case that I like the running backs and players being drafted around him much more. I also worry about QB Anthony Richardson vuluturing touchdowns from Taylor.

James Cook – This is another instance of I like the RBs being drafted near him much more – Isiah Pachecho, Josh Jacobs, and Joe Mixon are the RBs I’m taking in this area. Josh Allen is a TD vulture.

Aaron Jones – This is more fading an aging oft-injured running back. And again, I like the RBs near him more. I also LOVE drafting Ty Chandler later.

-Jonathan Brooks – This is a common theme for the RBs, I like the other running backs being drafted near him more. I’m not sure when he’ll be back to full strength/workload. So paying top 100 ADP scares me a bit. Plus, I love taking Chubba Hubbard later for the discount to get access to the Panthers running game.

–Jaylen Warren– I feel like the Best Ball community will shun me for this, as Warren seems to be a community favorite. I could see both Steelers RBs paying off their ADPs. But I’m leaning heavily on Najee Harris, who should get more of the workload and the goal line work. I’m linking arms with our guy Felix Castro on this one.

 

WR:

-Marvin Harrison – I believe Harrison could have an amazing rookie season. But enough to pay off WR9? That’s hard to sell me on, and I like receivers being drafted after him like Drake London, Nico Collins and both 49ers receivers much more.

Chris Olave –Similar to Harrison, this is more I like the receiver being drafted around Olave much more. I do like the offensive coordinator change in New Orleans, but not enough to sell me that Olave’s touchdowns will go up dramatically.

DK Metcalf – Similar to last year, it is not that I doubt Metcalf’s talent, I just like the discount on the other Seahawks receiving options, especially Tyler Lockett and Noah Fant.

This is also because I do more hero and double hero RB builds. And when I take a WR in the 3rd round, I like the other options more.

This is one that makes me nervous and I will try to correct and grab some shares as the summer goes on.

-Malik Nabers – The talent and target share make me nervous, but taking a rookie on a bad offense is a fade for me. I looked at some data, and the last several years, from what I remember most of the rookie receivers that hit were on top-tier or at least decent offenses.

-Zay Flowers – Mark Andrews returns, Isiah Likely could have a larger role in 12 personnel, and Bateman has looked good in OTA/mini camps (stop me if you hear that one before). But four of Flowers five touchdowns came when Andrews was out last year. Add to that the addition of Derek Henry and Flowers is the 4th most likely touchdown bet on his own team. When we’re touchdown hunting on Underdog, this is a fade for me at this high price.

–Rome Odunze– Another scary rookie fade (underweight), but this time its more I’m nervous about his target share in a crowded receiver room. This is another one similar to Metcalf that I’ll likely get more exposure to as the summer goes on.

–Rashee Rice – Yes, this is mainly due to the looming suspension. We don’t know if it will happen this season and for how many games. But if he does miss 6+ games this season, this price is too steep for me to pay. Especially now that the Chiefs added other weapons in WRs Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy.

 

TE:

–Sam LaPorta – The player I had 50%+ exposure to last year and now I have next to none. But this simply comes down to price. His price is too high, and if it comes down, then I’ll grab more shares. I worry the Lions can be run-heavy in the red zone, and if LaPorta doesn’t recreate his magical rookie season with 10 or more touchdowns this season, you could be left holding the bag.

Travis Kelce – This is another case of the price is too high…and the age is high as well. We saw how Kelce can still be dominant in the real NFL Playoffs last year. But the Chiefs know they need him for the postseason and I could see his snaps limited more this year. Plus, there are more weapons this year with WR Marquise Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy.

 

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