Underdog Battle Royale Rankings Week 5
Quarterbacks:
Sleepers: Anthony Richardson, Jared Goff, Matt Stafford, Joe Burrow
I think there is some clear value on Battle Royale drafts right now at the QB position with how Kirk Cousins is being undervalued. He’s currently being the 6th QB selected, despite finishing the first three weeks of the NFL season as QB9, 2nd, and 4th. That’s among all 32 possible starting QBs, in this slate with a number of top guys on bye or off the slate, Cousins has a very reasonable chance to be a top-scoring QB, particularly in a match-up vs. the Chiefs that the Vikings should be trailing for most of the game. Now Mahomes going against the Vikings’ terrible defense is still probably the best play, and Jalen Hurts is absolutely always a top play as well, but Cousins should be considered in that mix.
Jackson and Tua we know have a similar upside/ceiling as the top 3, but they both are in situations where they could be in blowouts and might not need to push it this game. Their floors are probably pretty strong in those scenarios still, but they could be 5-10 points behind the top tier if those games go nuclear. Anthony Richardson is currently in the top 6, but I think Stroud is more deserving. Richardson’s passing has really struggled and he’s relied quite a bit on his rushing to get him his fantasy points. That’s not something you can count on every week, especially against one of the top rushing defenses in the league in the Titans. Also if Jonathan Taylor does come back, that could be another player who takes away TD chances for Richardson. Stroud, on the other hand, has shown the ability to put up 300+ passing days, and there are some holes still in the Falcons secondary. I think Matt Stafford is intriguing as the Eagles’ secondary has had some issues, and so far TD variance has not got Stafford’s way. Sooner or later he’s going to have a 350-yard 3+ TD game.
Running Backs:
- Bijan Robinson
- Derrick Henry
- David Montgomery
- De’Von Achane
- D’Andre Swift
- Isiah Pacheco
- James Conner
- Alvin Kamara
- Raheem Mostert
- Joe Mixon
Sleepers: Breece Hall, Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Kyren Williams, Dameon Pierce, Jahmyr Gibbs
Despite a number of teams missing this is a pretty strong RB group this week, with Robinson, Henry, Montgomery and Achane leading the way. Those four backs are all in excellent spots and have the ability for 2 or 3 TD games. The only slight concern is with Achane since he does still share this role with Mostert, but they both could get there in this match-up against the Giants. Swift and Pacheco have similar workloads, but in terms of the projected game script, and focal point of the offense they are slightly behind. They are still very capable of being your lead-backs and are fantastic Flex plays.
Conner isn’t getting the full bell-cow role that everyone expected, but he’s still getting the early down work, enough passing work, and the goalline work. He’s a focal point of the offense and should be in consideration most weeks. Kamara got a massive target share in his first game back, and that could continue as Carr continues to play through the shoulder injury. If he breaks any of those for a big gain and gets a TD, you are looking at a huge week. Right now I’m staying away from both Barkley and Taylor, but if I were playing 100-150 entries I’d take some shots, because the upside is big in a format like this where they could dominate a slate and not be in every 6-person group. Among the sleepers Breece Hall might be the most interesting if he truly is no longer on the snap count like some reports suggest.
Wide Receivers:
- Justin Jefferson
- A.J. Brown
- Tyreek Hill
- Puka Nacua
- Ja’Marr Chase
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (Editors Note: Now Doubtful)
- DeVonta Smith
- Jaylen Waddle
- Adam Thielen
- Nico Collins
- Jordan Addison
- Garrett Wilson
Sleepers: Tank Dell, Zay Flowers, Marquise Brown, Chris Olave, Michael Pittman Jr., Rashee Rice, Skyy Moore, Michael Wilson, DeAndre Hopkins, Tutu Atwell, Tyler Boyd
We really see the bye weeks impact the depth of the WR position, which is one of the big reasons why I think for most people this is a clear 2 RB week. The top 6 on this list all have crazy high upside, with the only real risk being if, there is a blowout in say the Dolphins or Lions game. Maybe the number 2 WRs of the Dolphins and Eagles could outscore the number 1’s, which is why Smith and Waddle are so high on the list, but that hardly makes guys like Brown and Hill bad picks. After Waddle it does begin to thin out, Thielen is pretty safe from a volume standpoint, but if Bryce Young can’t lead the Panthers on more scoring drives it limits his upside. Nico Collins has upside, but the match-up vs A.J. Terrell is a tough one.
It’s tough to recommend any Jets player, but against this Broncos defense, with some of the improvements we saw from Zach Wilson, Garrett Wilson is very sneaky. We are potentially getting 10-15 targets from an elite talent against probably the worst defense in the league. It almost doesn’t matter who is throwing him the ball at that point, Wilson could put up 25+ points in this type of environment and is going to be naturally avoided by a segment of players.
As for the sleepers though it really thins out. Dell is probably in play, especially if Terrell does shadow Collins (but that might not be the case). I’d normally be very interested in Chris Olave, but it’s unclear if Derek Carr can throw the ball down the field with any consistency as he’s dealing with the injury. You can try to guess a Chiefs receiver that will hit, or hope that Hopkins has a big game against a banged-up Colts secondary. All these plays though are pretty thin.
Tight Ends:
- Travis Kelce
- T.J. Hockenson
- Sam LaPorta
- Mark Andrews
- Dallas Goedert
- Hunter Henry
Sleepers: Tyler Higbee, Zach Ertz, Darren Waller, Jonnu Smith, Kyle Pitts, Dalton Schultz
This week the TE group is very strong with the opposing TEs at the top in the KC-Minn game, as both Kelce and Hockenson have shown the ability to put up massive spike week scores. Add in some questionable defenses, and a potential shootout, leaving these TEs as the clear-cut top plays. Sam LaPorta has seen similar usage to Kelce and Hockenson, but the game environment here could play more slowly, and likely with the Lions ahead. That could cap LaPorta’s upside, but he’s still viable for 6-8 targets, and hopefully a RZ look or two. Mark Andrews is still a top TD weapon, but his target share hasn’t been super impressive so far. With the Ravens probably ahead in this game comfortably, Andrews will need 1 if not 2 scores to be viable this week. Goedert and Henry are both running the amount of routes we want in our TEs. Henry’s getting the targets, but his QB play is weaker, Goedert is clearly behind the alpha receivers in the offense, but any week that he gets a few extra looks could lead to a mega week (i.e. George Kittle).
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