Best Ball Fades Through Mid-July

If you haven’t already, check out my article here on Fanspeak about Fading in Best Ball and here on RunPureSports. It goes into all the nuances of how and why fades in best ball work.

Quick Summary:

-Fading in Best Ball is very different than DFS. If the player you faded outperforms their ADP, you’re team is not dead.

-Reasons to fade in best ball – weak team offense, injury risks, difficult schedule, difficult playoff schedule, etc. But probably the biggest reason you will fade a player in best ball is that you think he is being overvalued or his ADP is too high. In best ball, even if you are drafting 150 teams, you still want to make stands.

-And on Underdog Fantasy and DraftKings, it is fine to make strong stands and fade players if you feel strongly they will underperform their ADP. Especially on Underdog and DraftKings, because even if a player has an amazing season but weak playoffs, your fade was correct. I faded QB Jalen Hurts and RB Josh Jacobs for the most part last year in best ball. And I still had a 27% advance rate and had a team make the BBM3 Finals. And believe me, I’m taking an L on those fades and acknowledging I was wrong on those players. But on Underdog and DraftKings it didn’t hurt me because Jacobs had a very weak playoffs overall (especially quarter & semi-finals) and Hurts was injured and out for the semi-finals and finals.

-But one or both of these things need to happen to have success even making some incorrect fades. Most importantly, you have to be correct on a lot of your stands of players you have high exposure to in your portfolio AND/OR the stud players you faded are out or have a poor best ball playoffs (Weeks 15-17)

This is all to say, don’t be afraid to make big stands or fades, especially on Underdog and DraftKings. So with that, below are the players I’m fading or underweight exposure through this midpoint of July.

Now this could change for me as their ADPs change this summer, so I’ll continue to revisit this each month as well. Also, I’m only talking about fades for the top 100 picks/players with rising ADPs/very strong stands.

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Meg’s Best Ball Fades Mid-July:

QB:

–Kyler Murray – I have not drafted Murray all best ball season. Now his price is rising as reports are he could play earlier rather than later. I am still skeptical about how many total games he plays. He plays on one of the worst rosters in the NFL and I don’t think his rushing will be near 100% this season.

–Justin Fields – Maybe this will be Jalen Hurts 2.0. Or maybe not. This was a historically low-volume passing offense. If it’s not Hurts 2.0, you are really just relying on massive rushing games. He carries one of the biggest injury risks at the QB position given how much he runs. The best ball playoff schedule for Fields is not ideal in terms of weather with one game in Cleveland and two games in Chicago in late December. I’m freezing just thinking about that. If I do draft more shares of him later, I will draft with two other QBs.

-Anthony Richardson and all Rookie QBs – ADP is still way too high for me for Richardson. I’m low on rookies overall and we wrote a whole article series with a ton of data here.

–Trey Lance – Another QB that I have not drafted all best ball season. His price is dropping because people are realizing that Brock Purdy will be the 49ers starting QB. Drafting Lance is either betting on a Purdy injury or a trade. I’m not willing to give up a roster spot for that risk.

RB:

–Jonathan Taylor – I took a couple of shares of Taylor early. And even though I think a rushing QB could help Taylor, I am just very low on the Colts’ offense this year. I like the other RBs in Rd. 1 and 2 so much better than Taylor this year.

-Travis Etienne – His ADP is too high considering the Jaguars drafted Tank Bigsby and it sounds like they want to scale back Etienne’s workload.

-Jamhyr Gibbs – Simply much better DraftKings or Drafters pick in full point PPR. Not as good of a fit on Underdog and TD-hunting scoring.

–D’Andre Swift – Simply much better DraftKings or Drafters pick in full point PPR. Not as good of a fit on Underdog and TD-hunting scoring. Would rather take the discount on Penny or Gainwell from the Eagles’ later in drafts.

–Alvin Kamara – Wasn’t impressed last season and carries a lot of risk with suspension. Now in a more crowded backfield too.

–Rachaad White – I’m actually shocked he’s still in the top 100. He did not impress me his rookie season and now plays on a bad team that I don’t think will score touchdowns. I have interest in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin because of the sheer talent. No interest in White.

-Samajae Perine – I know we don’t know when exactly Javonte Williams will be ready or at full strength. But I still have a feeling the Broncos could sign a vet and I don’t trust Perine at this ADP. I like RBs around him like AJ Dillion, Brian Robinson/Antonio Gibson, and Damien Harris much better.

WR:

–DK Metcalf – Similar to Jonathan Taylor, I have a couple of early shares. But I would much rather take the discount of the other Seahawks receivers, especially Tyler Lockett. I don’t think the ADP gap of almost 40 spots from Metcalf to Lockett is worth it.

–Christian Watson – He’s a big talent, but had outlier touchdowns given his targets and other data. Will things regress from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love? Probably. I simply like other receivers around him more. If his price drops, I’ll probably grab some shares, because there is no doubt about his talent.

-DJ Moore – See Justin Fields – historically low passing offense. Would have to see a massive jump in passing to take advantage of this ADP.

–Brandon Aiyuk – I’m high on the 49ers’ offense but Aiyuk is the 4th weapon on the totem pole behind CMC, Samuel, and Kittle.

-Michael Pittman – See Anthony Richardson. I’m not high on this passing offense at all.

–Marquise Brown – I would target Brown more on DraftKings. But when we’re TD hunting on Underdog, I don’t see the Cardinals scoring a ton of them, and if so, I’d rather target RB James Conner later.

–Treylon Burks – He is a raw player in a run-heavy offense.

-Zay Flowers – I have concerns he’ll be used more in a gadget-type role in year 1 in Baltimore with the main targets being Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, and Odell Beckham.

–Michael Thomas – We just haven’t seen it in so long from Thomas. Maybe if his price falls further I’ll take shares.

TE:

–Darren Waller -I see the risk that Waller could be the top receiving option in New York for Daniel Jones. And I’ll have a couple shares. But I either get a hero TE or usually wait. I simply like the other tight ends around him better like Dallas Goedert.

-Chigozeim Okonkwo – His price is rising and I like the TEs around him much better. The Titans’ is a run-heavy offense and I don’t trust that he’ll pay off this ADP.

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