New Orleans Proves The Falcons Can Lose At Home: The Falcons had been perfect in the Georgia Dome this season and 19-3 over the past three seasons. In fact it was only the 2nd loss ever for Matt Ryan at home. None of those records matted when the New Orleans Saints and Drew Brees came into town. Brees didn’t have his best game and even threw a pick six early in the 4th quarter to give the Falcons the lead, but he came through when it counted. Brees led the Saints on a 90 yard scoring drive, capped by a 6 yard touchdown pass with 3:30 remaining. While it was a great defensive game on both sides, it was the Saints defense that really won this game. The Falcons came up with some big plays against Brees and Co. but they still allowed the Saints to move the ball more effectively. The Saints defense on the other hand only allowed 7 points and and really held the Falcons offensive stars in check all game. While the Falcons still hold the top spot in the NFC, it showed that they are a bit more vulnerable.

Pitt Knocks Off UConn: In an early Big East battle the Pitt Panthers knocked off the UConn Huskies in a statement win for Pitt. The Panthers should move up in the rankings with this win, and they proved once again how tough they are to beat at home. The Huskies Kemba Walker was the high scorer for the night with 31 points, but his output could only keep UConn within 15 points as the Panthers won 78-63. The Panthers never trailed in this game and played shutdown defense, holding the Huskies to 32% shooting. The Panthers were paced by Aston Gibbs with 21 points, but had 3 other players in double figures. Although it is a long Big East season, it was key to get a big win like that early. The Panthers are a good balance of veteran and young players, and really should challenge for the Big East title this season (and possibly more).

Chargers Announce That Norv Turner’s Job Is Safe: After an embarrassing loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, that eliminated the Chargers from the playoff hunt a lot of speculation arose that Turner might be on the hot seat. Chargers president and owner Alex Spanos dispelled any notion of that by saying that both Turner and G.M. A.J. Smith would return next season. It was a very candid approach and the right move by the Chargers to dispel any rumors before they maybe hurt the Chargers locker room. Considering how good the Chargers have been of late I don’t think you can fire Turner after one average (albeit disappointing) season. Considering the massive injuries this team faced, in addition to an offseason filled with a number of holdouts (including two that lasted well into the regular season) I think Turner did a fairly good job. In fact if anyone deserves to go it probably should be A.J. Smith, who’s tough negotiating policies led to the holdouts and trade rumors swirling around this team. Smith also had one of his weaker draft classes this past season, that really set the Chargers back. Overall though it is a good move bringing both Turner and Smith back and giving them a shot to redeem themselves, in what is still a fairly weak AFC West.

Saints -6.5 @ Bengals: Cincinnati may be at home, but they have no shot in this game as they are imploding fast. The Saints will need to keep pace in the NFC South so I expect them to play their best football. Saints win easily 35-20.

Bears -4.5 @ Lions: I’m really a bit fan of the Lions as they really seem to be turning the corner, but all my hope for them stops at Drew Stanton. If Matt Stafford or Shaun Hill were quarterbacking this team then I’d say they had a shot, but I don’t feel quite as confident with Drew Stanton. Bears win 27-20.

Jaguars +3 @ Titans: I never would have believed it if you told me, but the Jaguars are leading this division right now and I expect them to defend their first place standing. Tennessee needs to hope Kerry Collins can still get the job done, but he is far from a 100%. Tennessee will keep it close, but remember the Jags are actually getting three points in this game. Jacksonville wins 24-21.

Broncos +9 @ Chiefs: The last time these two teams met the Broncos ran up the score on the Chiefs, something I’m sure Kansas City hasn’t forgotten just yet. I’d look for the Chiefs to have an answer for the Broncos passing attack at home today, and I think Kansas City will put on an offensive show. The Chiefs might not be able to put up as many points since they are more of a run first team but I’d look for them to cover. Chiefs 35-17.

Redskins +7 @ Giants: Seven points is a big spread for the Redskins, who really haven’t been blown out of too many games this season, but I think it will be enough for the Giants to cover. New York’s receivers are banged up right now, but at the same time so is the Redskins secondary. Even with the Giants being without their top two receivers, I think they have a better passing attack than Washington. On top of that the Giants grade out with a better quarterback, rushing game, offensive line and overall defense. Now I think the Redskins can keep this game close despite their injuries, but I don’t see how they can consistently score against that Giants Defense. Giants win 28-17.

Patriots -6.5 @ Lions- I’m going with the upset pick today that I’m sure I’ll regret by halftime, but I’ll take the Lions getting the points. I know, I know, it is the mighty Patriots going up against the hapless Lions, but Detroit is better than you think. They have been in just about every game this season, and have taken some very good teams down to the wire. Even with their backup quarterback at the helm the Lions can give the Patriots a game. Now I haven’t gone so crazy to believe the Lions will win (though wouldn’t that be sweet), but I think they will keep it close enough to cover. Brady and the Pats might have trouble finding the endzone and I think they will have to settle for a couple of FG’s. Patriots win 27-21.

Saints -3.5 @ Cowboys- Dallas has looked like a brand new team with Wade Phillips out as their head coach, and that is without their quarterback Tony Romo. Backup Jon Kitna has filled in wonderfully, and the ‘Boys are once again a force to be reckoned with. Now it may be too late for their playoff hopes, but Dallas can play spoiler down the stretch. The Cowboys first chance to upset the apple cart will come today, when the Saints come into to town. New Orleans might have 7 wins, but they are far from a lock for the playoffs. They are a game back against the Falcons and essentially tied with the Buccaneers, so a loss today would really set them back. Dallas is never easy to play on Thanksgiving, so I look for this one to be a battle, and a bit of a shootout. I have cautious optimism that the Saints can pull this out and cover the spread, but Dallas should keep it close. Brees prevails in the end, 34-28.

Bengals +9.0 @ Jets- In a rematch of the first round of last years AFC Playoffs, the Jets should have no trouble replicating what they did last season. The Bengals looked to be a force in the AFC this season, building on their success from a year ago, but it is very likely they end up 4th in the North division this season. Despite adding all sorts of talent to their receivers and tight ends, Cincinnati finds a way to lose. Carson Palmer has become incredibly inconsistent, and it is costing the Bengals games. Nine points are usually a big enough spread that you’d consider taking the Bengals, but I don’t see any logical reason why anyone should play them. Sure the Jets have been a bit inconsistent this year, going down to the wire against the Browns and Lions, but I think they win this game easily. Jets 35-20.

Happy Thanksgiving and Enjoy the Games!

1. Steelers- Roethlisberger looked fine in his debut, and Pittsburgh continued to roll. Now with a passing attack to go along with their ground game and defense, I’m not sure how you stop them.

2. Jets- The Jets are 5-0 after their opening week loss to the Ravens, and are showing a tough (albeit not great) D and a strong running game. Sanchez has improved this year, but still has had some bad weeks.

3. Ravens- Baltimore might have two losses, but neither are a blow out and this team is balanced and ready to play.

4. Colts- Indy might have two losses, but they still look like one of the most dangerous teams in the NFL. Manning is having another incredible year and could lead this team back to the Super Bowl.

5. Patriots- New England might only have 1 loss, but I’m still not believing in this team sans Moss. The Patriots look okay now, but can they sustain it?

6. Saints- This isn’t last year’s Saints team, but they still have plenty of offensive firepower, the question going forward is can that defense hold up?

7. Titans- Tennessee has the running game and defense down pat, but they still need consistent performances from their quarterback.

8. Texans- Houston has some holes in their pass defense, but have a fantastic running game and passing attack.

9. Falcons- Atlanta is a very good team, but to be a contender you have got to win some tough ones on the road, and they looked over matched last week.

10. Eagles- Philly has two quarterbacks that could start for most teams in the league, and an impressive offense. The loss of Jackson hurts them though if he is out for an extended period.

11. Giants- New York is hotter than Philly right now, but the Eagles have the more talented team. Either way these two teams should be fighting for the division.

12. Chiefs- The Chiefs came extremely close to beating both the Colts and the Texans, but in the end couldn’t pull it out. Overall they are a good team but still have a few big holes.

13. Packers- Green Bay roster is beginning to look like an infirmary, but they still have Aaron Rodgers at the helm and that will keep them competitive.

14. Dolphins- Miami is 3-2 and has looked pretty good thus far. Their two losses have come to divisional foes and they almost upset the Jets. They are still a developing team, but the future looks bright.

15. Redskins- Washington is 3-3 and have done a good job of playing up to their opponents. Their defense has some major holes in it, and their offense is incomplete, but they are still in games.

16. Bears- Not addressing their offensive line issues this offseason has come back to bite the Bears hard. They have a good defense and a number of playmakers, but their o-line will hold them back.

17. Vikings- It hasn’t been pretty this year in Minnesota, but their defense has held up. The question remains is how will Favre’s arm hold up for the rest of the year?

18. Seahawks- Seattle isn’t the most impressive team in the NFL, but they have put together some nice games. And should remain in the West race.

19. Bengals- Cincinnati needs to figure out what is going wrong, because the talent is there with this team.

20. Broncos- Denver’s offense is looking good, unfortunately their defense can’t really stop anyone.

21. Cardinals- Arizona is relying on an undrafted rookie, but they have the talent around him to pile up a few wins.

22. Buccaneers- Tampa has a bright, bright future ahead of them, but that defense has not been able to stop top notch offenses.

23. Rams- St. Louis lives and dies with Bradford, as he has put together some good games, and some ugly games. They (Bradford esp.) seem to play much better at home, so it will be interesting to see how they end up with their road record for the year.

24. Cowboys- They might only have 1 win, but I wouldn’t count the Cowboys out just yet. They have so much talent, but no discipline or gameplan.

25. Chargers- San Diego’s defense is letting them down big time, and could keep them from a return trip to the playoffs.

26. Lions- Detroit lost another quarterback, but Stafford should be back now. Their defense has some issues, but that offense can score with anyone.

27. 49ers- San Francisco finally got a win, but they still aren’t playing up to their talent.

28. Browns- Cleveland is starting to show some semblance of an offense going forward, now they just need a defense to step up.

29. Jaguars- Jacksonville is 3-3, but with Garrard possibly injured for a couple of weeks (maybe less) their situation is pretty ugly.

30. Raiders- Oakland has some talent they just need to put it all together.

31. Panthers- It looks as though they rushed Clausen, hopefully it doesn’t do long term damage to the kid.

32. Bills- Why this team didn’t improve at quarterback or the offensive line this offseason is beyond me.

I really don’t even know what to say anymore as it appears each week is crazier than the last:

-While it isn’t too shocking that the Colts beat the Chiefs yesterday (though maybe a bit surprising that Indy had trouble scoring), what it meant was pretty surprising. Not only did the Colts hand the Chiefs their first loss, and knock off the final unbeaten team, but they ensured that no team started the year 4-0 or better. It is the first time since the 70′s that at least one team hasn’t been able to win at least their first 4 games. And considering that last year the Saints and Colts went pretty deep into the season before they got their first loss, it is even more shocking.

-The Redskins once again had the game decided on the final play of the game. In 4 of their 5 games this season the Redskins fate has been decided on the final play of the game. Now some of that makes sense since in overtime the game is sudden death so any score is the final play, but the Redskins have already had two overtime games which is a bit much. This Redskins version of the “Kardiac Kids” are 3-1 in those final play games so luck is on their side, but for their fan’s sake it would be nice to see them take a knee in one game.

-The Cowboys fall to 1-3 after getting beat bad by the Titans at home. The Cowboys were easily good enough to win that game, but their penchant for penalties (which has plagued them all year) has lost them another game. Dallas is now two games back in the division that they were supposed to win this year. And for all the hype of them having a chance to have a ‘home’ Super Bowl, not only is the idea of them making it unlikely at this point, but would they even want to? The Cowboys are now 0-2 at home this year, and have looked completely lost.

-The Chargers fall to the Raiders for the first time in 13 games. San Diego can’t seem to put two good week’s together this season. One week after dominating the Cardinals, the Raiders come out and just flat out beat the Chargers. San Diego might not be out of the division, but this does not look like a team that could go far in the postseason.

-The Bengals lose another game. After losing to the Browns last week, this week the Bengals lose to the Buccaneers. This was considered a Super Bowl contender after they added T.O., Jermaine Gresham and a few other options to Carson Palmer’s arsenal. The problem apparently isn’t Palmer’s weapons but Palmer himself. He threw three interceptions yesterday. One of which was returned for a touchdown, while the other two set up both the game tying and game winning drives (pretty short fields on both) in the final 3 minutes of the game. The Bengals gave this game away and now have serious question marks at QB going forward.

-Undrafted Hall and the Cards knock off the Super Bowl Champs. Now who ever saw this coming? I liked Max Hall coming out of college and thought he would be a solid backup in the league, but he showed a lot of moxie and poise in yesterday’s win. Now Hall didn’t ‘lead them’ to victory in the traditional sense, but he played solid football. And most importantly he kept them in a position to win. The Saints didn’t give up a single rushing or passing touchdown, but their 4 turnovers (two of which were returned for scores) sealed their fate. They also weren’t able to rattle the rookie quarterback too much, as the Cardinals held the ball for half the game. Saints are another Super Bowl contender who right now 5 weeks into the season look like anything but. It’s a long way to go but it is pretty troubling start so far.

Wow this week was full of a number of shocking games and brutal losses against the spread (and hopefully no one bet on too many of my predictions this week as no one saw this coming!)

Ravens over the Steelers: While Pittsburgh played well enough to win, they ended up beating themselves in the end. Between missed field goals and stupid penalties, Pittsburgh continued to shoot themselves in the foot. How you have three penalties on your last offensive series, while you are trying to put the game away is beyond me. The Steelers have the return of Ben Roethlisberger this week (they have a bye, so he won’t play until the following week) so I think they will be quite alright, but it was still a rough loss to Steelers fans.

Atlanta Beating the 49ers on a last second FG: The Falcons were coming off a win against the Saints and were once again at home, but they were a completely different team yesterday. Atlanta was sloppy all game (and the 49ers weren’t that much better) and needed a last second 43 yard field goal to beat San Francisco. Although the shock of the season might be the 49ers 0-4 start, the Falcons barely squeaking by shows some weaknesses on that team. The Falcons should still be a solid playoff contender, but that offense was not clicking on all cylinders yesterday against a team that can’t seem to get out of their own way. Atlanta will need to tighten up if they are to contend with the best teams in the NFC.

Saints squeaking by the Panthers: New Orleans was favored by two touchdowns, but needed a FG late in the 4th quarter to get past the hapless Panthers. Carolina played well enough to win this game against the Super Bowl Champs (in New Orleans no less). Rookie Jimmy Clausen showed some promise and their running game did well against the Saints defense. New Orleans is still 3-1, but they haven’t dominated anyone the way they did last year, and have some major questions going forward. I will say it is probably a good thing they changed placekickers as John Carney’s leg was needed three times.

Redskins Upset Philly, In McNabb’s Return (and Vick’s exit): Washington scored 17 points on their first three drives, and it is a good thing they did since those were the only points they had. While Washington’s offense struck early, this ended up being a defensive game as the Redskins held the Eagles to just 12 points. Philly lost starting quarterback Michael Vick to a rib injury at the end of the 1st quarter, but Kolb came in and played a solid game. Some bad coaching calls help lead to Philly’s demise (the whole 4th and 1 thing at the end of the first half was ridiculous). The Redskins won the game based on their rushing attack and defense, but the win still propelled them to 2-2 and atop the NFC East.

Colts Lose Their Second Divisional Game on a last second FG: Indianapolis has at times appeared dominate this season (weeks 2 and 3 and the last 5 minutes of week 1) but at other times has looked pretty ordinary. While Peyton put up another 350 yards and two touchdowns, their rushing attack failed to average any better than 3.1 yards per carry. While the Colts defense didn’t give up major yards like they did in Week one, they still gave up some big plays that put them in a hole. Overall I wouldn’t be too worried about the Colts as they are still a playoff team, but this loss could really hurt their chances for the division.

NFC East:

Eagles: While it is not too surprising to see them at 2-1 considering they had games against the Lions and Jags, it is quite surprising to see who is behind center. Vick so far is playing maybe the best football of his career, and makes the Eagles extremely dangerous.

Giants: While the Colts and Titans are two good teams, if the Giants want to be a contender not only do they need to not get blown out but they need to actually win one of those games. Despite having a ton of talent up and down that lineup, this team is not firing on all cylinders.

Cowboys: The 0-2 start was a bit of surprise, but they looked better last week in their victory over the Texans. So far this team is not utilizing all of their talent, and could still be a threat if they turn it around. Right now though their sloppy play makes them look like an average team and not the Super Bowl contender they thought they were.

Redskins: Their opening win against the Cowboys gave them hope, but a new coach and new quarterback has led to the same problems that plagued them before. While their 1-2 record isn’t shocking, it is a surprise that they lost to the Rams.

NFC North:

Bears: Chicago is one of the major surprises this season as they have jumped out to a 3-0 start, including wins over Dallas and Green Bay. Their offense and defense are vastly improved and they look like a strong playoff contender.

Packers: Green Bay, gave away the game last night, but thus far still looks like a serious playoff team. Their offensive line woes continue though, and will need to be fixed moving forward. The Packers also are severely missing RB Ryan Grant who is out for the year, and don’t be surprised if they make a trade to fix the problem (cough, DeAngelo Williams).

Vikings: Minnesota started out 0-2 which was a pretty big surprise, and are still looking to find their way offensively. They still remain a dangerous team with the weapons they have, but right now don’t seem like a great contender.

Lions: The Lions starting out 0-3 would hardily qualify as a surprise, but on the positive note they were in both of their first two losses (Bears and Eagles) until the very end. And that was without their starting quarterback Matt Stafford.

NFC South:

Saints: New Orleans has started out a respectable 2-1, with big wins over Minnesota and San Francisco, but they have shown some weaknesses as well. Their special teams has let them down and cost them a win Sunday against Atlanta, and their defense isn’t as dominate as it was last season.

Falcons: Atlanta looks to be legit, after coming off a sub-par season last year. They played Pittsburgh and New Orleans to a tie in regulation, and throughly crushed the Cardinals. Their defense looks improved and the offense seems to be running smoothly.

Buccaneers: Tampa’s 2-1 record looks better than their actual talent, and is inflated by wins against the Browns and Panthers. That being said this is an improved team this year that is assembling a lot of young developing talent. This might not be the year for Tampa, but they could be ready to contend in a year or two.

Panthers: Their 0-3 start isn’t really a surprise, as this team was set up to fail. With no first round pick and the loss of their star defensive end Julius Peppers, put this team in a hole they couldn’t get out of. The big surprise with this team is how quickly they ended the Matt Moore era. While I wasn’t a big believer in him, he did help turn their season around last year, and probably deserved at least half the year this season. Going to Clausen so early could be risky for the Panthers long term as well.

NFC West:

Seahawks: Their 2-1 start qualifies as a major surprise, especially considering the fact they had to go through the 49ers and Chargers to do so. The numbers aren’t pretty, but in a weak division these 2 early wins are key. I’m guessing though their lack of talent catches up with them in the 2nd half of the season when their schedule toughens up a bit.

Cardinals: No Warner no problem right? At least that’s how it looks in the standings with a 2-1 start, but the reality is they beat the Rams in Sam Bradford’s first ever game and the Raiders (a game they almost lost). When the Cards played a contending team they lost 41-7. They might hang around the division lead considering who weak the West is, but I don’t think they end up with it.

Rams: A 1-2 start is more than I think the Rams could ask for, and is a bit more impressive that their win came over the Redskins with Steven Jackson sitting on the bench. Bradford has been solid so far, but he hasn’t faced a really tough defense yet. As of now he looks to have the potential to be a top notch quarterback one day, but the rest of this year is crucial.

49ers: San Francisco’s 0-3 start not only qualifies as a surprise, but an utter shock. This team was picked to win the NFC West and be a serious contender, but they have looked lost on the football field. Their start has already claimed their offensive coordinator who was fired yesterday, and could lead to some changes in personnel as well.

NFC:

NFC EAST:

1. Dallas Cowboys

2. New York Giants

3. Philadelphia Eagles

4. Washington Redskins

The NFC East should once again be one of the best divisions in football, and likely the most talented division in the NFC. The Cowboys are poised for a huge year, one in which they host the Super Bowl. Giving potential for the first ever home game for a Super Bowl participant. In the end I think they will come up just short of a Super Bowl appearance, they have the talent to make it there. Their offense is one of the best in the league, and that defense can bring pressure from anywhere. They will have to get through a pair of playoff contenders in the Giants and the Eagles and a revitalized Redskins team that likely won’t be the pushover they once were. I think the Giants are poised to rebound in a big way and a double digit win season is likely. Their young receiving corps has shown flashes of brilliance, and should breakout in a big way. Eli Manning is ascending to elite quarterback status, and I’d expect a bounce back year for their running game. The Giants defense let them down last season, but should be vastly improved this year. The Eagles are transitioning to a new quarterback but I wouldn’t expect a drastic drop off in production from McNabb to Kolb. The rest of the offense should be more dangerous now that Maclin and McCoy have a year under their belt. The Eagles offensive line is still a concern, and could be the deciding factor in a playoff spot or not. Philadelphia’s defense can bring the heat, and I’d expect another strong year from this unit. The Washington Redskins no doubt improved themselves in a lot of ways this offseason, but the problem is they had quite a ways to go, and didn’t make the wholesale changes they needed. McNabb is great, but this isn’t the McNabb of Eagles glory (also Jason Campbell wasn’t exactly the issue last season). And while the offensive line and running game improved, the wide receivers took a noticeable decline. On defense the 3-4 looks good on paper and benefits a guy like Brian Orakpo, but it caused a rift with their best defender (Albert Haynesworth), and turned Andre Carter into basically a role player. In the long run it can benefit the Redskins, but in the short term it is just window dressing.

NFC SOUTH:

1. New Orleans Saints

2. Atlanta Falcons

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4. Carolina Panthers

The Saints are coming off their Super Bowl win ready to compete again for another title. With Drew Brees at the helm this team can play with anyone. With a deep running back-tight end-receiving corps that is practically impossible for other teams to match up with, the Saints offense should run on all cylinders for another year. Their defense has some questions that could hold them back, but if a couple young guys live up to their potential they should be fine. The Falcons this year should be more of a threat to the Saints but I don’t see them winning the division. A playoff run is possible, but a lot will depend on which Matt Ryan shows up this season. Ryan took a major step back last year, but he still has the talent and ability to become a “Franchise Quarterback”. Atlanta has a vastly underrated defense, that I think will really impress people this season and help lead them to the playoffs. The Buccaneers should be an improved team, but probably won’t have more than 6 wins this season. I am starting to become a Josh Freeman believer, and think he could have a pretty solid season. They are a young club and won’t compete, but a strong year of individual performances could set them up for 2011. The Panthers are a team that really could collapse. They have the best running backs in the league, but that is pretty much where their talent level stops. It is almost a given that the Panthers will have a new head coach next season, and If they start out as bad as I think they will, don’t be shocked if they make some big trades by the deadline. They have a lot of redundant players at RB and along the defensive line that it could make sense to stock pile draft picks for the new regime. Also, I wouldn’t bet against Steve Smith being moved. His contract is fairly reasonable going forward, and there are plenty of playoff caliber teams that will be looking for wideout help. I really expect a bad year in Carolina, but like Tampa they can work on building to the future.

NFC NORTH:

1. Minnesota Vikings

2. Green Bay Packers

3. Chicago Bears

4. Detroit Lions

While the Packers are everyone’s pick this season I’ll have to believe it to see it. For me the Vikings are still the superior team, and that is without Sidney Rice for half of a season. I really don’t know how you pick against Brett Favre as he has time and time again made inferior receivers look better. In addition the Vikings have two major weapons in Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin that are extremely tough for opposing defenses to stop. The o-line is a major worry, but I still think the offense has the talent to succeed. In addition that defense is impressive, they are equally adapt at stopping the run and getting after the passer. Right now their secondary is a little banged up, but should improve throughout the season. The Packers have a great host of offensive weapons led by Aaron Rodgers, but I still worry about that offensive line. They are a bit deeper as a unit so they can handle injuries better, but they have to improve this season if the Packers are to take their game to the next step. While I love their 3-4 defensive line, and Clay Matthews the rest of that linebacking unit is below average. And while their secondary gets a lot of hype they will be without Al Harris for at least half of the season. While Charles Woodson is a stud and i’m a big believer in Morgan Burnett, this ‘strength’ of the Packers defense got TORCHED by Kurt Warner in their playoff game last season. The Bears should be improved some this season, but I really don’t see them as much of a contender. Jay Cutler could put up big numbers in Martz’s system, but I don’t see them really succeeding behind that offensive line. Chicago should be improved on defense, but I wouldn’t call it a difference making unit. It’s hard to really peg where the Bears stand as an organization right now, and this year will be crucial for them. The Lions made some solid moves this offseason, but the question remains if their offensive line can allow the offense to move the ball forward and if quarterback Matt Stafford is ready to take the next step. On defense I’d expect some improvements, but overall it is still a pretty weak unit. Another last place finish and top 10 pick looks to be in the cards for the Lions.

NFC WEST:

1. San Francisco 49ers

2. Arizona Cardinals

3. Seattle Seahawks

4. St. Louis Rams

The 49ers are the team to beat out West and from the looks of it they won’t have much competition. San Francisco has an impressive offense unit led by RB Frank Gore, TE Vernon Davis, and WR Michael Crabtree. Their offensive line should be vastly improved with the additions of Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati. The real question is at QB where Alex Smith needs to show consistency. The 49ers also need another receiver to step up and take some of the heat off Crabtree/Davis. The talent is there, but it remains to be seen if any of them will become a solid number 2 wide receiver. On defense the 49ers have a top unit one that should shut down even the best offenses in the league. The Cardinals had been the team to beat, but now they are without Kurt Warner and a host of other stars. While they replaced some of them and still have some talented players I don’t see Derek Anderson leading this team to the playoffs. The Seahawks did some nice things this offseason, but this team is practically devoid of offensive weapons. While their defense should be a bit better, I don’t know if they have the talent to even compete with the Cardinals, much less the 49ers. The Rams have their “Franchise Quarterback”, but they really didn’t surround him with the tools to be successful. I think it will be a long, hard year for the Rams offense, and as sad as it sounds that might be their best unit. That defense is incredibly porous and needs a complete overhaul.

Playoffs:

1. Vikings

2. Saints

3. Cowboys

4. 49ers

5. Packers

6. Giants

NFC Championship Game: Vikings over the 49ers

One of the side effects of the uncapped season is it limited teams ability to negotiate long term extensions with their young players. Players were limited to getting a raise of 30% on their next season’s salary, which isn’t a lot when some of these players could expect raises of 500% or more. Players coming off rookie contracts, since their base salaries were so low to begin with, are the most affected.

This left teams and players in a lurch, since unrestricted and restricted free agents had no limitations to what they could sign for, but extensions were basically non-existent. This left a number of young stars in a bind with their contract situation. Stars like Chris Johnson and DeSean Jackson, who have shown they are worth mega-extensions, haven’t been able to get them. Also, surprisingly given the number of stars, the restricted free agents this season haven’t gotten major deals as well. Teams seem to be more willing to let them play out their last season at a bargain basement price rather than open up the checkbook now.

This had led, until a few days ago, teams to not lock up any of their young guys long term, with the three notable restricted free agent exceptions, Brandon Marshall (after he was traded), DeMeco Ryans and Nick Collins. In the past two days teams have found a work around to the NFL’s 30% rule and shown a renewed willingness to lock-up their young talent. The 49ers and Saints shelled out over $100 million combined to keep two of their young budding stars. The most interesting case is the 49ers, who resigned their stud linebacker Patrick Willis, because they found the work around that players have been looking for (and teams possibly looking to avoid).

Willis signed a 5 year $50 million dollar extension, which will take effect next season. The deal includes over $29 million guaranteed, and gets around the 30% rule by shelling out two separate signing bonuses, the second of which is a “supersede signing bonus”, which basically means its a conditional signing bonus. Teams use that bonus to protect them in case a player suffers major injury, retires unexpectedly, or holds out. This means teams only have to pay the bonus, if the player is still on the field.  In this case the bonus is only protected against injury and is really more of a formality since the payment is due next season. But by using the two bonus structure, they could resign him without shelling out the whole amount this year, and maintaining the 30% rule in regards to his base salary. In hindsight the 30% rule still kept this a reasonably manageable contract, as I think there is little doubt Willis would have had a more favorable deal without the restriction.

Even still, both Willis and the 49ers did a great job of finding a smart workaround that didn’t hurt either side. Now teams like Philadelphia and Tennessee will have to see if they can make the numbers work using a similar strategy. No longer the excuse of being unable to negotiate a workable contract will apply to these teams.

The other mega-deal reached yesterday was the Saints with guard Jahri Evans, a restricted free agent, for 7 years and $56.7. Evans has established himself as one of the premier guards in the league. His forte is run blocking, which was evident last season as every Saints ball carrier had success running the football. Evans easily becomes the highest paid guard in the league with this deal, which should be celebrated by Drew Brees and the running backs. While 7 years seems like a long investment, I would say there are even odds that he plays out the length of his contract. Guards typically have longer careers than most, and Evans hasn’t missed a single game yet. With a clean injury history and his level of play this is a great deal for the Saints. It is also a great deal for (guards) other young restricted free agents, particularly the free agent tackles like Jared Gaither, Jammal Brown, and Marcus McNeil. All three of whom are considered very good-elite starting left tackles, but have yet to see the money flow their way given their restricted free agent status. If Evans can get $56 million, these guys should expect that or more given their positional value.

While there is a potential lockout looming (though I wouldn’t bet on it) and no one knows how the new CBA will shake out, resigning or extending these top young players is a good thing for these teams. Because a couple major deals have been struck, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a trickle down effect with a few other deals being worked out in the next week or so. Willis and Evans were the the first two to sign, but will be by no means the last.

The New Orleans Saints made a statement yesterday, with their 31-17 victory over the Colts in Super Bowl 44.  They are for real, and the new power house in the NFC. Drew Brees was pretty much perfect after the 1st quarter yesterday, and was well deserving of the MVP award. Though two other people should have been considered for the award, and that is head coach Sean Payton and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. They both coached a brilliant game yesterday and put the Saints in a position to win.

While the Saints offensive line had no trouble keeping Brees upright, Payton did a great job of ensuring Brees had plenty of short and dump off targets to keep the chains moving. Brees and Payton more or less neutralized the Colts pass rush by staying out of 3rd and long passing situations. And Payton had the call of the year, by onsiding the 2nd half kickoff. What made the call even bolder was the fact that the earlier bold call, of going for it on 4th and goal didn’t go his way. That onside kick changed the course of the game, not only was the Colts defense unprepared to stop Brees, but I think it finally allowed the Saints to believe they could win the game.

The other coach that deserves a lot of credit is Williams, whose defense was the first to beat Peyton Manning this season. While overall the Saints had a great game plan, and much will be made about the interception return, three drives in particular epitomized the Saints performance yesterday. The first was the Colts first drive of the game. Manning was moving the Colts down the field, and it looked like a given that they would be putting 7 points on the board. Instead the Saints defense tightened up and held them to a field goal. The next key drive of the game, was early in the 4th quarter after the Saints cut the Colts lead to 17-16, and Peyton Manning converted a 4th and 2 to the Saints 32. Again it seemed as though Peyton was about to score and make it an 8 point lead. At the very least, the Colts needed about 3-5 yards to attempt a fairly makable field goal, instead the Saints forced them to lose 3 yards and Indianapolis missed a 51-yard field goal (which also gave the Saints offense great field position). The last defensive drive of the game, really showed the Saints tenacity. Manning drove the Colts down to the Saints 13 with just under two minutes remaining and a pair of timeouts. Sure the Colts would have needed to score and get the onside kick, but it looked like the Colts were about to make it a one score game, yet they never found the endzone. All-in-all it was a tremendous performance by the Saints defense to bend, but not break to the Colts offense.

The real MVP of the game of course was the field general, Drew Brees. After the first quarter Brees went 29 of 32 and just left the Colts guessing. He did a fantastic job of executing Sean Payton’s game plan, and constantly kept the chains and the clock moving. Brees’ performance was even more impressive given the fact that the Saints running game completely disappeared last night, managing just 51 yards and 2.8 yards per carry. Despite being one dimensional, the Saints passing attack was incredibly effective. Hopefully with the Super Bowl win and MVP award, Brees will start being thought of among the elite quarterbacks in the league (in all honesty outside of Peyton, who can you say is better than Brees?). It shouldn’t be to much of a debate though since I don’t see the Saints going anywhere as long as Brees is behind center.