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Morning Links: Broncos Lock Up Champ, Panthers Tag Kalil

February 23, 2011 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

CHAMP RETURNS TO DENVER:

Champ Bailey agreed to a 4 year deal for over $40 million to return to the Denver Broncos. Denver has now locked up one corner position, but still has a serious need at the other spot. While it is pricey this is a great deal for the Broncos, as they couldn’t afford to lose one of their few star players. The contract should also give Denver flexibility for the future as Bailey is set to make $15 million this season, meaning his remaining three years will be below market value. I like it when teams front load a veteran’s contract so he isn’t overpaid when his skills decline. While some might say that the $15 million is too much, but the franchise tag for corners is in that market, and Bailey is easily one of the top 5 corners still in this league. One interesting thing to note is the fact that Bailey cited the labor uncertainty as to why he resigned now. This could lead to a small wave of signings heading into early next week when the CBA expires. I wouldn’t expect many more big names, but some solid starters and role players might decide they want to resign now before the market is potentially flooded.

PANTHERS FRANCHISE CENTER RYAN KALIL:

In a bit of a surprise move the Carolina Panthers decided to place the franchise tag on center Ryan Kalil. Now it isn’t to say that Kalil isn’t a franchise (aka top 5 center), but rather they deemed him more valuable than either RB DeAngelo Williams or DE Charles Johnson. Now logically it makes sense to use the tag on an offensive lineman over a running back like Williams. Williams is a very talented running backs, but backs typically have shorter NFL careers, and the Panthers are still pretty well set in the backfield. The more surprising move is letting Johnson hit free agency. Johnson came out of Julius Peppers shadow quite nicely and was an elite pass rusher for the Panthers. And in fact was probably their most dominate player last season. His 11.5 sacks were 8 more than the next closest player on the Panthers, and was part of a 3-way tie for 7th in the league. Whats even more impressive is the fact that he did it on one of the worst defenses in the league, with zero help from the interior of the Panthers defensive line. The Panthers have some defensive end depth, but they weren’t able to find a consistent starter opposite Johnson, now they need to replace him? The other thing that makes placing the Franchise tag on Kalil odd is it guarantees him a top 5 offensive line salary (the average of), which includes all offensive linemen. Like it or not, centers are never viewed in the same light as tackles so now the Panthers have to pay their center tackle money. A case can be made to make Kalil the highest paid center, but to put him on par with the league’s top OT’s is a bit of an overpayment.


NFL Mock Draft 02/01/11

February 1, 2011 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

1. Carolina Panthers: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn-

With no Andrew Luck in the mix the Panthers, will go to plan B, which is to choose from one of the elite defensive players in the draft or wide receiver A.J. Green. There might be a big push for the Panthers to go for Green, given their need for a play making receiver (especially to help in the development of Jimmy Claussen), but I think that would be a big mistake. The Panthers have spent a number of draft picks on  receivers the last few years, and while Green is better than all of them, that is just too many resources to put into one position, especially when they have so many other holes. The other reason why Green doesn’t make sense is that receivers just aren’t worth the high draft pick when you have so many other needs. As good as Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald are they weren’t enough to keep their teams from having losing records. The Panthers need a bigger impact player.

While the Panthers could go for one of the elite corners or a defensive end, those aren’t nearly as big of a need as defensive tackle. Fairley is an elite player, and fills a major need for the Panthers. Adding Fairley to an already impressive defensive line (assuming they resign Johnson), would jump start the Panthers rebuilding efforts big time.

Feb. 1st update: Still Think Fairley is the pick here, combine, workouts and background work will all be crucial. The reports about his attitude are troubling, but not sold yet that it changes anything.

2. Denver Broncos: CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska-

The Broncos could go in multiple defensive directions here, but I’m going to say they nab Amukamara here. The Broncos could opt for a defensive end (or a rush linebacker if they stay in the 3-4), but taking a corner here makes sense. Champ Bailey is an impending free agent, and if they can’t agree to terms with them their corner situation is dismal. Even if they do bring Bailey back, his time at the top of his game is near the end, so adding a young elite corner makes sense. Also, when you play Phillip Rivers twice a year, strengthening your defensive backs is a always a good idea.

Feb. 1st update: Still think CB is the pick here and believe that Amukamara is that guy.

3. Buffalo Bills: DE/OLB Von Miller, Texas A&M-

The Bills could look to grab the top receiver or corner back on the board, but I’m thinking they will go with the best pass rusher to improve their front 7. It doesn’t make much sense to run the 3-4 if you don’t have a rush linebacker who can get to the quarterback. Aaron Maybin has been a huge bust so far, so it is time for the Bills to address their biggest need. Miller really separated himself at the Senior Bowl and I now believe he is a top 5 pick. His instincts are unreal and he has the ability to be a superstar.

pick change: previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

4. Cincinnati Bengals: WR A.J. Green, Georgia-

The Bengals will be quite happy to find Green on their doorstep and won’t let him fall any further in the draft. Cincinnati will move on from Terrell Owens this offseason, and it is very likely they look to deal Chad Ochocinco as well. They will need a new big play receiver if they hope to stay competitive, as Carson Palmer (if he is there) can’t run the offense alone.

Feb. 1st update: Yes quarterback could be an issue if Palmer follows through with his trade demands, but I don’t think there is anyone worth taking at this spot.

5. Arizona Cardinals: DE/OLB Robert Quinn, North Carolina-

While a lot of people have the Cardinals taking a quarterback in the first round, I don’t think that is the direction they will look to go. I see Arizona looking to add a more veteran option and maybe drafting a QB in the mid-rounds. The Cardinals biggest need after quarterback is a pass rusher, and that is one need they can fill this April. There are some concerns with him since he was suspended for a rules violation this year, but he is a big time talent, and if he is in top shape this offseason he should be a top 5 guy.

pick change: Previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

6. Cleveland Browns: DE De’Quan Bowers, Clemson-

Previously I had the Browns reaching for a wide receiver with this pick and taking Julio Jones, but recent events make me believe they will go in a different direction. With the hiring of Dick Jauron, it is now pretty official that the Browns are heading to a 4-3 alignment, and right now they don’t have the personnel to handle the move. In particular they need to find help at defensive end, making De’Quan Bowers a fantastic selection for them. Bowers is the top rated player on my board, but he doesn’t fit nearly as well into 3-4 teams, and teams like the Panthers and Bengals don’t have a pressing need for a DE, allowing him to fall. The Browns would be wise to end that fall, as he has the potential to be the next Mario Williams or Julius Peppers. Although the Browns still need to add a big play receiver, I think they will look more towards the 2nd round and/or free agency.

pick change: previous selection WR Julio Jones

7. San Francisco 49ers: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU-

While the 49ers could be tempted by a quarterback, I think Peterson makes too much sense for them to pass up. Their secondary got pretty torched last season, and adding a play-maker like Peterson should help fix that problem immediately.  The 49ers could win the NFC West next year with just a few changes so adding guys who can help right away, compared to a developmental QB makes sense. With Peterson in the fold that defense should finally be as good as advertised. Quarterback is still and issue, and one that will likely be addressed in free agency (or via a trade) and a mid-round selection.

pick change: previous selection, QB Blaine Gabbert

8. Tennessee Titans: QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri-

The Titans at this point could go in any direction, but it will be hard to gauge until they have a new coach in place. Despite the coaching change it looks as though Vince Young is on his way out. While that would have happened with Jeff Fisher at the helm, he was more likely to look for a more veteran fix (McNabb, Kolb, etc.), then go the rookie route. With a new staff in place it might be time to rebuild in Tennessee, making Gabbert a smart pick. While I don’t know if I’d label him a ‘franchise quarterback’, he does have the best combination of potential, talent, and likelihood of reaching it. Gabbert probably should start until at least mid-season, but he gives hope as a quarterback who can take pressure off Chris Johnson.

pick change: previous selection DE De’Quan Bowers

9. Dallas Cowboys: DT/DE Marcell Dareus, Alabama-

Previously I had the Cowboys selecting and offensive tackle here and I still believe that is on the short list, but now I believe they will target defensive line first (unless one of the top corner falls). Dareus will help fill in the void along the Cowboys line and help strengthen that unit to an elite level. The Cowboys do have bigger needs along the offensive line and in their secondary (both at CB and FS) so a trade back is likely, but if they stay there Dareus would be a great addition.

pick change: previous selection, OT Tyron Smith

10. Washington Redskins: DE/DT Cameron Jordan, California-

While a lot of people will try to ‘mock’ the Redskins a quarterback, that is not the direction this team should be going in. I could also see the Redskins as a prime team to trade back, given their vast needs and small number of picks, but I’m not predicting trades in this mock. The Redskins are likely to part ways with Albert Haynesworth this offseason, meaning their weakness along the defensive line goes from ‘major’ to ‘critical’. Jordan would help stop the bleeding from losing Haynesworth, and provide the Redskins with a true star along the line. In the 3-4 he profiles best as an end, and should automatically upgrade both the Skins rush defense and pass rush. Jordan was by far the most impressive player at the Senior Bowl last week, and impressed scouts each day with his talent. He would be a huge get for the Redskins at the 10th spot.

pick change: previous selection DE Marcell Dareus

11. Houston Texans: OLB/DE Aldon Smith, Missouri-

Houston will be in the midst of transitioning to a 3-4 defense, and with no corner back to take should focus this pick on grabbing a rush linebacker. Smith was a sack artist in college and should have no problem fitting into the Texans new defense as a rush linebacker.

pick change: previous selection OLB Von Miller

12. Minnesota Vikings: QB Cam Newton, Auburn-

I don’t believe Newton is a top 2o or even a top 15 pick, but I have a sneaky suspicion he will here his name called during that time, the the Vikings are the favorites to land him in my book. Minnesota will likely look to upgrade the position this offseason via trade or free agency, but don’t be surprised if they double-dip and take Newton as well. Minnesota needs a long term project at quarterback (Joe Webb doesn’t count), and Newton I think would really intrigue them.

Feb. 1st update: I realize there are some Vince Young to the Vikings rumors, but I still see Newton as the pick here until that happens.

13. Detroit Lions: OT Tryon Smith, USC-

I’m keeping with the theory that the Lions will use this pick on a LT. While a lot will depend on his combine and workouts, I’m a big believer in Smith and liked what I saw on film. If he shows he has the strength, he has the ability to be a top tackle in this league. What the Lions have done in terms of protecting (or not protecting) Matt Stafford is flat out insane. You spend $60 million on a guy and you put him in a situation where he can’t succeed and needs to run for his life. The Lions have to fix that this offseason and grabbing Smith would be a smart move. Detroit might have needs at LB and CB, but they are secondary compared to their need at offensive tackle.

pick change: previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

14. St. Louis Rams: WR Jonathan Baldwin, Pittsburgh-

Most draftniks will say this is too high for Baldwin, but I think they are underselling him a bit. Baldwin has all the skills to be a number one wide receiver in this league and his addition should make Sam Bradford very happy. The Rams could look at some defensive options, but I think they stay the course and add the top WR on the board. While right now you can make a case of Julio Jones over Baldwin, I don’t think it is nearly as strong as most scouts make it out to be. I believe that Baldwin will separate himself during his workouts, and end up being the 2nd receiver in this class.

Feb 1st update: This pick will be either Baldwin or Jones unless the Rams grab a couple big receivers in free agency. They have to add weapons for Bradford and I don’t see them changing course.

15. Miami Dolphins: DE/OLB Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue-

While it is easy to mock the Dolphins a quarterback or running back considering their needs, Miami should be looking at a rush linebacker to compliment Cameron Wake. Kerrigan had a very successful career at getting to the quarterback with his hand down in college, and if he shows enough at workouts to make the transition outside he should be the Dolphins pick. If not Miami could go for another pass rusher, or turn their attention back to their offensive needs.

Kerrigan had a pretty good Senior Bowl week, and while it didn’t answer many of the questions about being able to stand up, he showed up at a good weight and looked pretty quick in drills. The question about converting into a LB isn’t fully answered, but it was a good first step for him.

Feb. 1st update: Still not buying a quarterback here or a running back. If for some reason Gabbert falls I could see him being taken, but no way Mallett or Locker get picked here. Ingram is a nice back, but not top 15 worthy. Dolphins should stay the course and strengthen that defense.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars: DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa:

Clayborn was once thought to be a top 10 pick, but slipped some due to a poor senior campaign. Clayborn’s senior numbers weren’t entirely his fault as teams routinely double teamed him, and ran plays away from the powerful defensive end. Clayborn isn’t a dominate pass rusher, but he has the skills to get between 7-10 sacks a season. Clayborn will help continue to boost a Jacksonville pass rush that let them down when it mattered the most.

Feb. 1st update: Clayborn could be slipping and I nearly had him fall into the 20′s, but still have enough confidence to keep him here. Not participating in the Senior Bowl didn’t help his stock, and at this point unless he has an incredible combine I think the best he can hope for is being taken right here. The Jags could look corner or safety, but my guess is they stay with a lineman.

NFL Team Needs: Picks 1-5

January 22, 2011 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Here are the top needs for each team in the NFL in reverse draft order:

1. Carolina Panthers:

-Defensive Tackle: The Panthers get very good play from their defensive ends, but receive no internal penetration from their tackles. Nick Fairley makes a lot of sense at the top of the draft.

-Guard: The Panthers have solid tackles when Jeff Otah is healthy, but have very little in the way of talent at guard. An upgrade could be in order in either the 3rd or the 4th round (maybe both).

-Tight End: Carolina has not had a pass catching tight end in years, but hopefully the new coaching staff will look to upgrade Jeff King. If the Panthers had their top pick in the 2nd round, they would reunite Clausen, with Kyle Rudolph his college tight end. Look for a potential trade, or a free agent signing to fill this need.

-Wide Receiver: The Panthers lack a top notch receiver to go along with Steve Smith, and it does hinder their offensive ability. While A.J. Green is in the mix for the top spot, the Panthers have invested a lot of draft picks of late into the position, so my guess is they will take a pass. I could see them adding a receiver via free agency.

-Quarterback: While I believe the Panthers should give Jimmy Clausen a fair look this season, they need to bring in a veteran backup in case he falters or gets injured. I think Clausen will be fine, if they can just improve around him enough.

-Corner back: Richard Marshall is a free agent this season, and he is coming off his worst year as a starter, so I don’t see the Panthers resigning him. That will mean Carolina needs to address the corner back position this offseason, likely through free agency.

-*Defensive End: The Panthers top sack leader, Charles Johnson, is primed to become a free agent. If the Panthers can’t work out an agreement, this need shoots up the list. As it stands now, this is only a need for depth purposes.

Denver Broncos:

-Corner back: Champ Bailey is a free agent this offseason, and even if they resign him, it is an area of weakness as the Broncos have nothing at the opposite corner. If Bailey does leave I think Denver will draft either Patrick Peterson or Prince Amukamara with the 2nd pick in the draft. And if they do resign Bailey, they could still look to address their need early.

-Defensive End: While it isn’t 100% clear whether or not the Broncos will run a 3-4 (like they have been doing) or a 4-3 (which is Coach Fox’s preference), the Broncos need big time help at defensive end. If they go back to the 4-3 both Da’Quan Bowers and Robert Quinn will be targets. If they stay with the 3-4 Nick Fairley or Marcel Dareus could be the pick.

-Defensive Tackle: Again this is dependent on what system they run, but defensive tackle is a serious need for Denver. If they stay in the 3-4 a Nose Tackle in the 3rd or 4th round would make sense, and if they go 4-3 Fairley and Dareus are in play for the 2nd overall pick, this time for the inside.

-Safety: It really is hard to say what is a bigger priority, strong or free safety as they both need to be addressed. I typically lean to adding a free safety first, but Denver should look at both positions.

-Right Tackle: Ryan Harris is a free agent, and even if they do resign him he has been pretty injury prone these last few years. If he isn’t retained a starter is needed, if he is signed a good backup is a priority.

Buffalo Bills:

-Offensive Tackles: The Bills need to add a pair of  tackles this offseason after completely ignoring it last year. At this point it doesn’t matter who lines up under center, as they have no chance without a massive upgrade at the tackle spots. There isn’t any franchise tackles in this draft, so baring a trade down the Bills should consider the Free agent route. On the right side they could look at using their 2nd or 3rd round pick on bringing in an upgrade.

-Rush Linebacker: The Bills were unable to put any consistent pressure on the quarterback and it cost them dearly. If they want to run the 3-4 they need to bring in guys who can get to the quarterback. Robert Quinn should be a serious option for them at number 3 overall.

-Defensive End: The Bills need to get more push from their defensive line, so adding a talented 3-4 end like Dareus or Fairley makes a lot of sense at number 3. They could wait until the 2nd round, but it would be hard to pass up those top guys.

-Quarterback: Ryan Fitzpatrick is a solid starter, but he’s likely not franchise material. While I don’t see the Bills grabbing a QB in round one, a 2nd or 3rd round pick could be invested into the position.

Cincinnati Bengals:

-Wide Receiver: Terrell Owens is on his way out, and it seems likely that Chad OchoCinco is about to follow him. The Bengals need to add a top flight receiver, so if A.J. Green is still on the board he won’t fall any farther in the draft.

-Defensive End: Antwan Odom has been a force at end, but over the last two seasons he his missed the majority of his games. Without him that pass rush struggles, despite the emergence of rookie Carlos Dunlap. The Bengals should consider Bowers at number 4 if Green is off the board.

-Strong Safety: The Bengals have excellent corners, but Roy Williams has been a major liability in coverage for Cincinnati and they have to find an improvement. If they can’t sign a free agent a 3rd round pick should do the trick.

-Running Back: Cedric Benson really struggled this past year, and while some of that blame is on the offensive line a lot falls on his shoulders as well. The Bengals need to address their running back need either in free agency or the draft, but it is pretty clear they will have to look outside the organization to do so.

-Quarterback: Carson Palmer had a resurgence at the end of last season, but before that he looked like he was completely done. He might have a year or two left in the tank, so the Bengals need to start looking for a replacement.

Arizona Cardinals:

-Rush Linebacker: The Cardinals had one of the most ineffective pass rushes last season and it left their secondary out high and dry. Arizona needs to look long and hard at Quinn and  Von Miller with their 5th pick if they want to improve.

-Offensive Tackle: The Cards offensive line needs a complete overhaul and that should start with the tackle position. There aren’t any great options for the top 5 in the draft, so I’m guessing they look to free agency to fill this need. For the right side a mid-round pick could suffice (and probably even start this year).

-Guard: Arizona needs to keep rebuilding their line if they want to have an effective offense again, and adding a guard in the mid-rounds (or through free agency) is a smart choice.

-Corner back: Arizona’s corners got beat quite a bit last season, that it wouldn’t be shocking to see them target a top corner at number 5. Overall I think they could just look at adding better depth and focus on improving their pass rush which should, help their corner back play.

-Quarterback: There is little doubt that Arizona needs to add a quarterback, but I think it is more for a short term fix than a long term issue (don’t right John Skelton off just yet). Look for Arizona to add a veteran as they look to get at least average production from their signal caller.

Wednesday’s Morning Links

January 12, 2011 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Michigan Finally Finds their Coach: After a week since officially firing Rich Rodriguez, the Wolverines now officially have their new football coach, Brady Hoke. While Hoke might be the right man for the job, the way in which this was handled was pretty strange. Michigan insists that Hoke was their first choice, despite the fact of their very obvious pursuits of Jim Harbaugh and Les Miles. Although it is understandable why Michigan would pursue the two big name coaches, it was also pretty apparent that they weren’t going to land either coach. Harbaugh had his heart set on the NFL, and even if there wasn’t a good fit this season, he likely would have just taken a raise, stayed at Stanford with his elite quarterback, and go NFL job hunting next season. There was little reason to make the jump to Michigan, making their attempt a waste of time. Miles should have been even more obvious of a pipe dream. Sure he is a Michigan man, but he spurned the Wolverines 3 years ago when they were a pro style team, why would he go now when their personnel don’t fit his strategy. He simply used the job as leverage for a new deal from LSU (again), leaving Michigan with egg on their face.

Now I don’t know when exactly the Wolverines decided to fire Rodriguez, if it was solely because of their bowl game or not. But if they knew before hand, and knew that Hoke was their man, they could have landed him back in December and be much further along in the recruiting process. You might have had to wait for a coach like Harbaugh or Miles, but you could have had Hoke at any time. This waiting period hurt the Wolverines slightly and it could be a long season next year. Particularly if Heisman hopeful Denard Robinson decides to transfer. Hoke might be the man for the job, but he has his work cut out for him.

Panthers Have Their New Head Coach: The Panthers announced the hiring of former Bears and Chargers defensive coordinator Ron Rivera to be their new head coach. Rivera a former player as well, has long been rumored as a head coaching candidate and has shown the ability to employ both the 4-3 and 3-4 defenses. Rivera has already announced that the 4-3 will be his main defense, but they will have 3-4 packages, and will be an aggressive overall unit. Defense though was the least of the Panthers issues, as their offense was worst in the league. The expectation is that Rivera will bring in a top offensive coordinator, that should help balance his defensive tendencies. I do expect a big improvement from the Carolina defense, as well an overall improvement as they should be more disciplined going forward. It won’t be an easy task, as top running back DeAngelo Williams is a free agent, and the Panthers are without a 2nd round pick. I don’t see any ‘worst to first’ stories coming out of Carolina this year, but I could see 6 or 7 wins, and a more competitive team overall.

Morning Links:

December 27, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

49ers Hand Singletary A Pink Slip: Now I understand the 49ers have been a huge disappointment this season and Singletary was going to be fired in a week anyways, but why fire him now? What does firing him one week early do for this team? This isn’t even a situation like Dallas or Minnesota where the interim coach might have a chance of becoming the next head coach, to allow him to get his feet wet. The 49ers are expected to pursue a number of big coaching names this offseason. I do understand that Singletary has had some issues with this team and he got into a verbal disagreement with Troy Smith on the sideline, but did he really cause enough embarrassment to be fired a week early?

Rodgers Returns Healthy, In a Rout Over The Giants: Two weeks ago Aaron Rodgers left the game after sustaining a concussion, which caused him to miss last week’s game and a good bit of practice. Obviously the concussion or time off didn’t negatively affect Rodgers as he went out and had perhaps the best game of his career. The Giants secondary didn’t have an answer for Rodgers as he torched them for 400+ yards and 4 touchdowns. The win moved the Packers into a Wild Card spot, and left the Giants on the outside looking in. After the heartbreaking loss in New England last week, this was the type of game the Packers needed to get back into postseason form after back-to-back losses without Rodgers.

Panthers Have Their Best Week Of The Season, Lock Up The Top Pick: With their loss on Thursday night, and the Broncos and the Bengals winning yesterday the Panthers are guaranteed the number 1 pick in next April’s draft. Unfortunately it also means the Patriots are guaranteed the 33rd selection since they own the Panthers 2nd round pick. Carolina could have a tough decision next year if Andrew Luck declares for the draft since they just drafted Jimmy Clausen this past season to be the quarterback of their future. While Luck very well could be an elite Franchise quarterback, they would be passing on more glaring needs in a year where they don’t even have a 2nd round pick. The could try to move Clausen for a pick or two, or even trade back from the number 1 slot (which they should do if they really believe in Clausen) and stockpile premium picks. The one thing I don’t see them doing is taking another player (Bowers, Green, Dareus etc.) over Luck with that top pick. Now if Andrew Luck doesn’t declare for the draft it will completely change the dynamic of Carolina’s thinking, and hurt their ability to trade out of that pick. One thing is certain Andrew Luck now knows who holds his future in his hands, and if he has ‘Carolina on his mind’.

Wednesday’s Morning Links:

December 22, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Cowboys Officially End Romo’s Season: It is not to shocking to see Romo put on IR, rather just a bit surprising it took so long. Although they hadn’t been “mathematically eliminated” from the playoffs until just recently, it always seemed like a long shot for Romo to return this season. There was no reason to risk a more serious injury by rushing Romo back. And it makes even less sense considering that the Cowboys have been in the very capable hands of Jon Kitna. This doesn’t affect the Cowboys end of the season outlook too much as they have a fairly winable game this week against the Cardinals followed by a pretty difficult matchup against the Eagles.

Marlins Extend Nolasco: Florida has made some odd moves this offseason, like trading away Dan Uggla, but made a smart one by extending Nolasco. He isn’t a true ace, but he is young and no worse than a good number 3 pitcher. Extending Nolasco ensures another key member of the Marlins is locked up for the next couple of seasons. The extension only buys out one year of free agency for Nolasco, but it would be at a reduced rate than what Nolasco would cost in free agency. In addition to that extra season of control it offers the Marlins much needed cost certainty going forward.

Steve Smith Could Be Done In Carolina: This should really come as no surprise since the Panthers are downright awful right now and Smith is having his worst season. Unfortunately for the Panthers, they realized this half a season too late. The best time to trade Smith would have been at this year’s trade deadline, before his value decreased and he could have been apart of two playoff runs. Now the Panthers won’t get near the return for their star receiver, further hindering whoever their new coach will be. While some fans will argue for Smith to still be apart of the future of the Panthers, they need to seriously consider rebuilding and should move Smith in the best deal possible.

Week 4 Full of Surprises

October 4, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Wow this week was full of a number of shocking games and brutal losses against the spread (and hopefully no one bet on too many of my predictions this week as no one saw this coming!)

Ravens over the Steelers: While Pittsburgh played well enough to win, they ended up beating themselves in the end. Between missed field goals and stupid penalties, Pittsburgh continued to shoot themselves in the foot. How you have three penalties on your last offensive series, while you are trying to put the game away is beyond me. The Steelers have the return of Ben Roethlisberger this week (they have a bye, so he won’t play until the following week) so I think they will be quite alright, but it was still a rough loss to Steelers fans.

Atlanta Beating the 49ers on a last second FG: The Falcons were coming off a win against the Saints and were once again at home, but they were a completely different team yesterday. Atlanta was sloppy all game (and the 49ers weren’t that much better) and needed a last second 43 yard field goal to beat San Francisco. Although the shock of the season might be the 49ers 0-4 start, the Falcons barely squeaking by shows some weaknesses on that team. The Falcons should still be a solid playoff contender, but that offense was not clicking on all cylinders yesterday against a team that can’t seem to get out of their own way. Atlanta will need to tighten up if they are to contend with the best teams in the NFC.

Saints squeaking by the Panthers: New Orleans was favored by two touchdowns, but needed a FG late in the 4th quarter to get past the hapless Panthers. Carolina played well enough to win this game against the Super Bowl Champs (in New Orleans no less). Rookie Jimmy Clausen showed some promise and their running game did well against the Saints defense. New Orleans is still 3-1, but they haven’t dominated anyone the way they did last year, and have some major questions going forward. I will say it is probably a good thing they changed placekickers as John Carney’s leg was needed three times.

Redskins Upset Philly, In McNabb’s Return (and Vick’s exit): Washington scored 17 points on their first three drives, and it is a good thing they did since those were the only points they had. While Washington’s offense struck early, this ended up being a defensive game as the Redskins held the Eagles to just 12 points. Philly lost starting quarterback Michael Vick to a rib injury at the end of the 1st quarter, but Kolb came in and played a solid game. Some bad coaching calls help lead to Philly’s demise (the whole 4th and 1 thing at the end of the first half was ridiculous). The Redskins won the game based on their rushing attack and defense, but the win still propelled them to 2-2 and atop the NFC East.

Colts Lose Their Second Divisional Game on a last second FG: Indianapolis has at times appeared dominate this season (weeks 2 and 3 and the last 5 minutes of week 1) but at other times has looked pretty ordinary. While Peyton put up another 350 yards and two touchdowns, their rushing attack failed to average any better than 3.1 yards per carry. While the Colts defense didn’t give up major yards like they did in Week one, they still gave up some big plays that put them in a hole. Overall I wouldn’t be too worried about the Colts as they are still a playoff team, but this loss could really hurt their chances for the division.

Why the Carolina Panthers Should Think About Making Some Trades

September 24, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

When it comes to making deals in the NFL, football has plenty of offseason activity, but during the season trades are fairly non-existent. Part of this has to do with learning the playbook, and timing with players, as there is probably a steeper learning curve than in any other sport at any other position. The other factor is that the trade deadline is early in the NFL, after week 6. At a time where most teams don’t yet know if they are out of the playoff hunt or not yet.

This year though things could be different. While the deadline is still early, more teams this year will likely already know their fate. Also, with no salary cap this season teams acquiring players won’t need to worry about fitting them under (maybe long term, but not for anyone who’s contract is up). Also with a new CBA looming, there could be changes in the restricted free agent or Franchise player compensation, which would make teams who are out of it more likely to dump a player now than wait until the offseason and maybe lose him for nothing. Also, with likely a new salary cap system in place and a strong free agent class (remember guys coming off their rookie deals last year ended up being restricted free agents under the no salary cap provision, that will likely revert back to the old number of years, essentially meaning this will be like two free agent classes rolled into one), teams might want to clear money off their books. While some might say that the uncertainty of the CBA could limit trading, contenders will always try to improve, even if next year they have to move money around or cut a player. While there are a number of teams that should look to treat this trade deadline (and even sooner) like MLB’s, I think the Panthers need to be very active in the next month.

The biggest name the Panthers should look to move, won’t be going anywhere despite it being probably the best for the organization. If I was running the Panthers, I’d look to deal Steve Smith to one of the receiver hungry teams on the open market. Smith would be very marketable to other teams, as his contract is pricey but fair. He is owed roughly $15 million between in 2011 and 2012, and only another $3.5 million for the rest of this year (depends on when he is traded). That is pretty affordable and doesn’t hinder teams long term. Smith has shown no real signs of decline (outside from the fact the Panthers’ QB play is pretty awful), and would be effective for any team for the length of the deal. He could probably net the Panthers at least a pair of 2nd round picks and an additional player. Which is a good return considering the Panthers likely won’t be contending in the next couple of years while Smith is under contract, and they could use that money on additional free agents this offseason.

While I think trading Smith is worth the risk, I realize it will probably never happen. The Panthers are now going with rookie Jimmy Clausen under center and they will want to give him his best weapon. It makes sense, but honestly it’s probably too early to go to Clausen so mitigating one bad decision with another is not going to help this team become any more successful.

One star player who could get traded would be starting running back DeAngelo Williams. Williams is one of the best running backs in the league, but he is an impending free agent. Even if their is no change to the Franchise tag compensation, do the Panthers want to go down that route? Plenty of players holdout, and it can hinder negotiations, and it will be a large financial hold against their cap (this year’s number for running backs was $8.15, and will only go up next year). I don’t think having over $8 million committed to one running back, when you still have Jonathan Stewart on the roster (who will make less than a fourth of that) makes much sense. I don’t see why Williams would sign a team friendly deal, and otherwise he is just too pricey for their roster needs. In addition to Stewart the Panthers have Mike Goodson and Tyrell Sutton on the roster, both capable of being the speedy back compliment to Stewart (and both would be at worst number 2 backs on the majority of teams in this league). What is the point to try to keep Williams, just to go through the Franchise tag hassle this offseason (not to mention when there is a chance that it all changes). Since the price will be high (at least a 1st and a 3rd, probably a little more) there won’t be many teams in the market, but I’d expect the Packers and Patriots (who already own the Panthers 2nd round pick, and have an additional 1st rounder) to come calling. And their are a handful of other teams that might be interested. Some fans might miss Williams, but the Panthers have the depth to do without him, and could jump-start their rebuilding process with the move.

While no other player is as big of a name as Williams or Smith, the Panthers have a few other guys who should attract interest. Cornerback Richard Marshall is an impending free agent and capable of starting on most teams in the league. While his loss will sting nickel back Captain Munnerlyn is ready to take over. It will hurt the Panthers overall depth, but they should be able to get at least a 2nd rounder for him (or the equivalent). While Marshall is pretty good, the Panthers might not want to make the big financial commitment to keep him when Munnerlyn is ready to start. Defensive end Charles Johnson has worked his way to become a pretty good starter with the Panthers, but is in the last year of his rookie deal, while he might end up being a rookie free agent depending on how the new CBA shakes out, there are no guarantees. This trade would be a bit more risky given more of the unknown, but could still makes sense for the Panthers. While Johnson is a good starter, the Panthers have excellent depth along the defensive line, particularly at end. They have drafted well at the position the past few years, and could cash Johnson in for a couple solid picks, and use the money you’d need to resign him to address another weaker position. Another reason that might make sense in moving Johnson (as well as all these players, but especially Johnson) is the likelihood of a coaching change after this season.  John Fox is on the way out and a new coach will be heading up the Panthers next year. Whether it is the head coach that brings in the new system (Bill Cowher) or a defensive coordinator, it could be possible the Panthers will look to switch to a 3-4 (in a lot of areas they have the personnel). Johnson does not fit in that system and would not be good as a linebacker. Trading him now assures you get value for him, and you aren’t desperate to trade him (or let him walk in free agency) later.

It is likely a long year for the Panthers football team this year, and none of these deals will salvage this season, but they can make this team more competitive as soon as next year, and if they play their cards right a contender the following season. While the Panthers aren’t the only team that should look to go down this route, they might be the most likely team.

Morning Links: Injury report

September 13, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Matt Moore Suffers Concussion At End Of The Game: It was not a pretty game yesterday for the the Panthers passing attack as starter Matt Moore struggled all game. At the end of the game he suffered a concussion at the hands of the Giants defense, that puts his status in question. While the severity of the concussion is not yet known, it sounds like it could be a little serious. Despite his ineffectiveness I would imagine if healthy the Panthers would still go with Moore. But this injury at least makes you think of the possibility of 2nd round draft pick, Jimmy Clausen starting next week. Personally I think while Moore’s on a much shorter leash, I think if he is healthy you have to play him. The history of playing rookie quarterbacks early is not good, and in many cases seems to almost stunt their growth.

Eagles Suffer A Rash of Injuries: Not only did the Philadelphia Eagles fail to come back yesterday, but they suffered a number of serious injuries. Quarterback Kevin Kolb and linebacker Stewart Bradley both suffered serious concussions. And Center Jamal Jackson and fullback Leonard Weaver will miss the rest of the season due to serious injuries. Jackson is a major blow to the Eagles as he is one of their best offensive linemen, and will likely miss the rest of the way with a torn biceps injury. While they can kick guard Mike McGlynn over to center it weakens them at the guard spot. I would wonder if the Eagles would consider trying to get Kevin Mawae to unretire to have some veteran depth there. Weaver is another major blow, as he is one of the best fullbacks in the league. The Eagles are now scrambling to find a suitable replacement and with both Jackson and Weaver out their interior blocking is in question. It is unclear yet how Bradley’s concussion could affect him going forward, but reports state that he appeared very out of it following the hit. Bradley was supposed to have a big year for the Eagles so even only missing a few games could go a long way to hurting the Eagles. Kolb was the most recognizable name to go down yesterday for the Eagles, but seemingly is the most easily replaceable. Michael Vick had a breakout game yesterday for Philly and almost led the Eagles back after being in a deep hole against the Packers. Vick was successful with both his feet and his arm and will have fans looking to him if Kolb continues to struggle. Kolb will probably be back next week, but beware of the brewing QB controversy in Philadelphia.

Lions Could Lose Stafford For 4-6 Weeks: Stafford who injured his shoulder after being sacked by Julius Peppers, could miss the next month and a half pending tests. Initial reports said it might just be a week or two, but later reports all put his time table at 4-6 weeks. This is a major body blow to the Lions, who despite having zero chance of competing for the playoffs, could have used this season to get their young guns on offense to develop for next year. Losing Stafford for a significant amount of time will set back that timetable and makes the Lions even less competitive. Shaun Hill will take over at quarterback, but the more immediate concern is the offensive line. Stafford got killed last year, and obviously this year they have failed to protect their “Franchise Quarterback”. As if Stafford’s injury wasn’t enough evidence the Lions, behind stud rookie running back Jahvid Best, gained just 20 yards on 21 carries. Likely the Lions will be picking in the top 5 once again in April, and you can probably write down the top offensive tackle next to their name.

Week 1 Storylines

September 13, 2009 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Eagles at Panthers: This is a battle of two of the best teams from the NFC last year, and two teams with Super Bowl aspirations this season. The Eagles bring in the baggage of the Michael Vick signing (even though he won’t be there) and their host of offensive weapons. The Panthers are looking to overcome the embarrassment of their playoff loss at home to the Cardinals that ended their season prematurely. Philadelphia still has a potent offense, that should only get better with the rookie additions of RB LeSean McCoy and WR Jeremy Maclin. The Eagles may be the favorite team in Vegas right now, but I wouldn’t count the Panthers out of this game just yet. They have a better rushing attack, and Steve Smith always finds a way to make plays no matter who is covering him. The Eagles offensive line could struggle against the Panthers defense led by DE Julius Peppers. If the Panthers can control the line of scrimmage and get an early lead, their running game should be good enough to win the day. Since this isn’t college football one loss isn’t going to kill the loser’s postseason hopes, but this game could comeback to haunt them at the end of the season. Panthers sqeak by at home 24-21.

Dolphins at Falcons: This is the only other match up of two 2008 playoff teams in the opening week, and the only one between the two conferences. Both of these teams shocked the NFL by their turnarounds from 2007 to 2008. Many people think the Dolphins are going to come crashing down to earth this season, and that they have no shot on the road in Atlanta. While its true they have a tough opening match up with the Falcons, I wouldn’t diminish their playoff hopes just yet. Miami’s defense got a lot stronger in the off season with a strong draft and some free agent signings. I would expect them to give Matt Ryan and the rest of the Falcons all they can handle. On offense the Dolphins have a great running back in Ronnie Brown and a strong offensive line. It might seem like their passing game is weak, but I think its very underrated. No you shouldn’t mistake QB Chad Pennington for Peyton Manning, but he does win football games. Now this is not to say I think Miami is going to runaway with this game. I think this could be the game of the week, because Atlanta is an extremely good football team. RB Michael Turner, WR Roddy White and Ryan give the Falcons a dynamic trio of stars. Adding Tony Gonzalez to the mix only makes the Falcons offense that much better. The area of concern for Atlanta is their offensive line, and can they hold up against the Dolphins pass rushers. On defense the Falcons have an improving unit that has playoff talent. But they are counting on a number of young players including rookies, that might not be ready for a tough week one match up. In the end I think Miami steals one on the road in week one 24-21.

Redskins at Giants: The battle for the East begins in Week one with two sensational defense’s battling it out. The Redskins added some top talent to their defense this off season and they will get an early test with the Giants offense. DT Albert Haynesworth was brought in to stop the inside running game, and put more pressure on the quarterback, the two biggest weaknesses of the Skins 2008 unit. In a way he was brought in specifically to stop RB Brandon Jacobs running all over the Skins like he did last year. On offense Washington made some minor improvements to the offensive line, but are mainly hoping the unit improves with experience. They are counting on their second year receivers to start making an impact on offense, otherwise it will be the Moss-Cooley-Portis show that has been there in the past. QB Jason Campbell needs to make some plays if Washington has any hope on the road. The Giants feature a tenacious offensive line that opens up plenty of holes for the ground game, and keeps Eli Manning on his feet. The receivers are pretty raw, but have immense potential. Hakeem Nicks needs to be accounted for on every play. He has game breaking ability, even for a rookie. The Giants have one of the few defensive units that have the talent equal to or better than the Redskins defense. New York’s defensive line is talented and extremely deep. They will generate a lot of pressure on their own without additional blitzers. Their linebackers are their weakest component, but that’s only because they are just above-average and not great like the rest of the defense. I think the home field advantage and better quarterback play give the Giants the victory here, 23-17.