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AFC North Draft Grades

April 26, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Baltimore Ravens:

Baltimore once again showed why they are one of the top teams in the league each year. They had another brilliant draft, trading out of the first round and recouping the picks they lost in their trade for Anquan Boldin. In the 2nd round the Ravens took a pair of very talented players, both of whom are perfect fits for Baltimore. OLB Sergio Kindle is a tenacious pass rusher and benefits by slipping some to the Ravens. Now instead of being one of the top guys on a bad team, Kindle can have the time to develop into a great player. He should find plenty of freedom playing along with all the starts the Ravens have on D. Baltimore’s second 2nd round pick, will do a great job in opening up holes for Kindle and the rest of the linebackers. Nose tackle Terrence Cody is a perfect fit in Baltimore. They have the depth that he won’t have to be an every down player, also his presence next to Ngata along the front line should give the Ravens a devastating run defense. After filling their defensive needs, the Ravens loaded up on pass catchers drafting tight ends in the 3rd and 4th rounds (thanks to the Tim Tebow deal) and a receiver in the 5th round. Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson are good complimentary tight ends. Dickson is the stronger, faster and more athletic one. While Pitta has great hands and instincts. Both should be immediate contributors, giving Joe Flacco one of the best arsenals in the league. Fifth round pick David Reed, was one of my favorite players in this draft and I expect him to emerge as the successor to Derrick Mason. The Ravens also added a solid DT/DE in Arthur Jones in the 5th round. He will move to end in the 3-4, but has a lot of potential. While the Ravens didn’t draft one of their bigger needs (cornerback), they added another fantastic class. When you factor in Boldin to this mix, Baltimore gets a very strong Grade A+.

Cincinnati Bengals:

The Bengals did a great job of filling their two biggest needs going into this draft, defense and pass catchers. The Bengals landed the top tight end in this draft with their first round selection of Jermaine Gresham. Gresham should give the Bengals passing game the jolt they needed last season. He has all the talent and skill to develop into an elite tight end in the NFL. In the 3rd round the Bengals grabbed Jordan Shipley who should help on special teams and as a slot receiver. He might never be a game breaker, but Shipley filled a big need for Cincinnati. Late in the draft the Bengals got great value by adding receiver Dezmon Briscoe, who was projected to go earlier in the draft. He has excellent size and speed and could develop into a starter. On defense the Bengals added four good prospects, who all have starting potential. 2nd rounder DE Carlos Dunlap, could develop into a top notch defensive end if he ever gets his mental game figured out. Cornerback Brandon Ghee was excellent value for the Bengals in the 3rd round, as were DT Geno Atkins and LB Roderick Muckelroy in the 4th round. All three of whom should be solid rotational players as rookies. The Bengals didn’t address their needs at safety, but filled every other position. While a lot of this draft is based on potential, I think the Bengals made some excellent selections. Grade B+

Cleveland Browns:

The Browns had a mixed bag with this draft. They traded away some picks to acquire Sheldon Brown and Chris Gocong and got some nice prospects, but they didn’t fill all of their needs. Joe Haden I thought was a interesting pick, since they had just acquired Sheldon Brown. Even if they do move Brown to safety, the Browns missed out on a chance to trade up for Eric Berry, who would have filled a major need for Cleveland. Considering the fact that the Browns used both their 2nd round pick and 5th round pick on safeties, it is safe to say Cleveland still was looking to upgrade the position. While I think Ward is a solid prospect and Asante offered them nice value in the 5th round, them combined don’t equal Berry, whom I think was the best player in this entire draft. For me, Ward was a bit of an overdraft and it would have made more sense to either trade back to the middle of the round or just outright select Jimmy Clausen with that pick. While they did eventually get their quarterback in the 3rd round, Clausen I feel will be ready sooner and has more upside. Trading up for Hardesty in the 2nd round was a bit of a surprise as well. While I like him as a player, they gave up a good bit to get him (picks that would have made more sense, plus others towards a deal for Berry). I did like both WR Carlton Mitchell and DE Clifton Geathers in the 6th round. I feel both have big upsides and should find roles on the Browns. Overall it seemed like a strange draft for Cleveland, where they addressed the majority of their needs but seemingly at the wrong times with the wrong players. There grade will remain high because of the addition of Brown and the talent they acquired, but I don’t know if this draft can put them back into contention. Grade B-

Pittsburgh Steelers:

The Steelers had a very good all-around draft, with the only question mark coming at the lack of drafting a corner early (they did trade for Bryant McFadden, so that did help and is weighted in this grade). Overall I loved their picks of Pouncey and Scott along the offensive line. Both players have nice upside and were good values for where they were drafted. Pouncey should start from day one in Pittsburgh and help solidify that unit. The Steelers addressed their skilled positions well, by adding a pair of receivers and a power back. WR Emmanuel Sanders in the 3rd round, offers good value and could work his way into the rotation. 6th rounder Antonio Brown, I thought was pretty underrated and should develop into a solid player, as well as helping early on in the return game. At running back the Steelers added Jonathan Dwyer, a bruising back out of Georgia Tech. A Dwyer-Mendenhall backfield should be very formidable, and Dwyer was excellent value in the 6th round. On defense the Steelers drafted 3 linebackers, one defensive end, and a corner. Most of those were depth picks but I believe the two rush linebackers they added should give them value. I’m actually higher on 4th rounder Thaddeus Gibson than 2nd rounder Jason Worilds. In fact I think Pittsburgh missed a golden opportunity with their Worilds pick. There were a number of trades at the end of that 2nd round, and if Pittsburgh had moved back they could have gotten additional picks, but also would have been able to grab one of the corners before they were all drafted at the top of Round 3. To me Worilds is more of a 3rd or 4th round prospect, and while he might fit in Pittsburgh I think he could be a bust as well. Gibson was excellent value for the 4th round, and should well continue the tradition of Pittsburgh sack masters at some point in his career. Overall I really liked what the Steelers did, but would have probably rather seen them trade back to the end of the 2nd round and grab a corner over Worilds. Other than that though I don’t have any real complaints or issues about this draft. Grade A-

Playoff Preview

January 16, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Colts Begin Road to Miami?

Simple answer to that question is an emphatic YES! The Indianapolis Colts I think are the best team in the NFL, and have been all season. While they will now have to prove it against the Ravens vaunted defense, I don’t think anything can stop Manning and the Colts right now.

I realize the Ravens are a good team, that runs the ball REALLY well, and plays good defense, but I think Manning and the Colts will be too much for them this week. As good as Baltimore’s defense has been this season, they’ve had their share of lapses. And the Colts are one team they can’t give an inch to. Manning and the Colts have too many weapons for the Ravens to cover, and Baltimore’s pass defense is their one area of weakness. I think the Ravens may have some success on offense, but it won’t be enough. The Colts are notorious for giving up a lot of yards, but keeping teams off the scoreboard. Most of the yards the Colts give up are, garbage yards at the end of the game. They are susceptible to the run, but generate a ton of pressure that allows them to stop good passing attacks.

Now I think there are some concerns for the Colts, not the least of which being, how do they come out after not playing for three weeks. I’m normally not a fan of taking it easy at the end of the season, but I don’t see it affecting the Colts. Manning and company are too professional, and have the experience to overcome the rust from the layoff. While there are holes in their defense, I think the Colts will do enough to slow down the Ravens and their running game. I think Manning and the home crowd will be enough to overcome Baltimore, 31-17.

Playoff Roundup:

January 11, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Three blowouts and one great game if you like offense, that is all you need to know to summarize this weekend’s playoffs. Overall though I can’t complain, because every team I was rooting for won. A couple quick points I want to make about the games this weekend:

–For all the talk about this being a quarterback league and that you need a franchise quarterback to win the big games, defense and the run game were the difference in the first round. The four highest paid QB’s in the first round all are going home and of those matchups you can really only say that Romo was better than McNabb (and that is a pretty close comparison). Though Warner is a ‘franchise’ guy, and Flacco and Sanchez could one day be as well, none of them were the best quarterback on the field.

–Running game and defense were the difference in ALL the games.

While you wouldn’t think the Cards could play defense with the way they were torched by Rodgers, they made two big plays early, as well as the fumble return that won the game in overtime. They also put more consistent pressure on Rodgers than the Packers defense did on Warner. The Cards out gained the Packers on the ground 156-90. The Ravens defense absolutely dominated the Patriots from start to finish, they forced four turnovers and had Brady completely confused. They won with just 34 yards through the air (Flacco had a 10.0 QB rating!), because they controlled the running game 234-64.

As for the Saturday games: The Cowboys forced four turnovers, and also chipped in with four sacks. They out gained the Eagles 198-54 on the ground. The Jets game is the one exception as they didn’t out rush the Bengals, both teams finished with 171 yards, but the Jets defense controlled that game from start to finish, with 3 sacks and forcing two turnovers. For the Bengals, running the ball is the only way they could move it (not good when they spent most of the game trailing) as Darrelle Revis absolutely shutdown Chad Ochocinco.

–Another interesting thing was of the three repeat matchups from week 17, only the Cardinals changed their fortune: We heard all week how you should take the results from week 17 with a grain of salt, because the playoffs are different, or they ran vanilla offenses, or that the Bengals, Eagles and Cards were resting their players, or that they weren’t trying because they had nothing to play for (even though the Eagles definitely did have something to play for). Despite all the talk and rhetoric all week, the exact same result happened when the Bengals and the Eagles got on the field this weekend (and the Bengals were now at home).

–The thing I love the most, is the four teams that were considered the “sleepers” or “dark horses” are now out of it: All year we heard about the Patriots being back this year, now that Brady was healthy New England was going to pick up where they left off in 2007. And the talk didn’t die down when they lost to the Colts or the Saints, or a few other games a ‘dominate’ team should have won. Instead it turned to how they would be a different team in the postseason, and a team that could go to the Super Bowl. In reality they weren’t a great team and got blown out yesterday (how hard is it to figure out the Raven’s offense: run right, run right, run left, run center, run right?).

The Bengals all season we heard how they were a new team with a ground game and defense to go along with Palmer and Ochocinco. Well the running game worked, but Palmer was off all day on Saturday. And what happened to that defense, not only did the Jets run over them, but they couldn’t figure out the Jets simple passing attack or get any pressure on Sanchez (has anyone ever seen two more simplistic offenses than the Ravens and Jets be successful in the playoffs??).

In the NFC, for a long time the Eagles became a favorite third option for all the analysts who didn’t want to pick a front runner. And Philly looked like an even better pick once the Vikings and Saints started struggling down the stretch. They looked anything but a Super Bowl contender on Saturday. The Packers became another favorite pick down the stretch, despite the fact questions about their O-line, pass defense and running game hadn’t been answered. All the talk of how they were a new team after the Cowboys game and that if they faced the Vikings and Favre again the outcome would be different is all for naught.

Sunday Playoff Previews:

January 10, 2010 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Revenge Meeting:

After their earlier regular season meeting it was apparent that there was no by the Ravens for New England, (though does any team really like Bill Belichick and the Patriots?) so I would expect Baltimore to come out with a chip on their shoulder. I’d also expect the Ravens to blitz Tom Brady early and often, not only to disrupt the offense, but to send a message for the phantom ‘Brady Rule’ call imposed upon them earlier this season. Regardless of the outcome, this will be a hard-hitting contest that’s fun to watch.

Baltimore has a good chance to go into New England and upset the Patriots, if they can stick to their game plan. The Ravens have a great running game led by Ray Rice, but Rice is complimented nicely by Willis McGhee and Le’Ron McClain. Their offensive line has given Baltimore big holes to run through all season, and should be able to win the battle in the trenches today. QB Joe Flacco is developing in to a fine starting quarterback in this league. He still has some issues with decision making, (holding the ball too long, or forcing it into coverage) but overall is a good quarterback. His receiving corps is far from top flight, but it does have a number of solid options. I’d look for Ray Rice to have a big game catching the ball out of the backfield. He’s not an easy task to cover for a linebacker, and if the Patriots defense blitzes he will find himself as the safety valve for Flacco. The real key to this game is the Ravens defense, though as a unit it was as dominate as its been in the past, down the stretch they played excellent football. When the Ravens needed them to come up big they always played their best. If they can keep up that performance today, I don’t see how New England moves the ball on them.

On New England’s side things aren’t looking good for the Patriots. Their running game has been awful this season, partly due to the ineffectiveness of the offensive line, party due to struggles at running back. That lack of a rushing attack is a big question plaguing New England as the Patriots start the playoffs. They still have one of the best passing attacks in the league with Tom Brady and Randy Moss, but that unit had a major blow when it lost Wes Welker in week 17. Welker is Brady’s safety valve and multiple people will need to step up to replace his value. New England does have a promising rookie in Julian Edleman, but he has big shoes to fill unless the Patriots change their game plan. I would guess we see TE Ben Watson and RB Kevin Faulk involved in the game more, in an effort to open up things down the field for Moss. The biggest issue for New England is their offensive line play, usually they do a good job of keeping Brady upright, if they don’t the Patriots could be in some trouble. As good as a quarterback as Brady is, he really struggles under pressure, and his numbers fall off big time when he’s getting hit. Without Welker there, Brady will need to find another safe receiver to get the ball too once he sees the pressure coming. Another issue with the Patriots is their defense, when New England was winning Super Bowls it was because of the defense more so than their offense (Adam Vinatieri didn’t hurt either). Now their defense is just good and not the great, dominating defense that was successful for them in years past. They have a good secondary, one that can make plays when quarterbacks make mistakes. But therein lies the problem, this defense doesn’t attack the QB like they used to, and that lack of pressure has led to a decrease in the number of take-aways they have. The Patriots defense will need to find away to slow down Flacco and Rice and not let them match the Patriots offense.

It looks like New England should lose this game, but I think they will pull it out in the end for two reasons. Home field advantage and their previous playoff experience. I think Brady and Co. will pull this game out in the end 23-21.

By Fanspeak Contributing Writer Geoff Nelowet

Can the Arizona Cardinals Match Last Year’s Magical Playoff Run?

Last week the Green Bay Packers won a meaningless game over the Arizona Cardinals 33-7. Both teams knew they had nothing to play for, and they knew they would face each other in seven days for an NFC wild card game. Surprisingly, Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt and Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy took very different approaches last week: Whisenhunt benched most of his starters in fear of potential injuries, and McCarthy played his starters for most of the game.

It will be interesting to see which team will benefit, as Green Bay may find itself in a better flow and more in-sync, and Arizona may feel more rested with essentially a game off.

Last week’s game, though, will in all likelihood prove itself irrelevant to this weekend’s playoff match-up, as both teams will ostensibly play with more intensity than weeks prior.

The Cardinals are the reigning NFC champions, and they come into the playoffs with much more respect than last year. They will not be given the opportunity to sneak up on anyone, and their road to the Super Bowl will be incontestably more difficult. Not to mention, the NFC in its entirety is loaded with more elite teams this year than last.

In consideration of last year’s run through the playoffs, the Cardinals are very difficult to judge. At the end of the regular season last year, they looked like dead weight in the playoffs, and they were expected to get blown out in the first round. Instead, they looked like an entirely different team – they played defense, and they were nearly unstoppable on offense.

It seems unlikely that Arizona can muster the same playoff effort as last season’s, and, like last year, they are going up against a better team on paper. Green Bay has one of the best defenses in the NFL, and they also have one the best quarterbacks in Aaron Rogers. This is a team built for the playoffs that has gotten better each week. They, like Philadelphia, are a major scare team that could do a lot of damage.

Kurt Warner and Co. will keep the game exciting for the Cards, but Green Bay will be too much in the end. Rogers will guide the Packers to an efficient, close win, and their defense will keep the explosive Cardinals air attack in check. Final score: Green Bay 27 Arizona 24.

Big Sunday Night Game; Roethlisberger Out

November 29, 2009 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

By Guest Blogger Megan Shoup:

Today’s docket of NFL games is pretty much a snoozefest, with no big rivalry or playoff implication games.  Except my Skinnies trying to upset the Eagles!  And it will be interesting to see if the Colts stay undefeated today as they play the Texans.  But tonight’s Sunday Night match-up of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens is a marquee matchup and has two major storylines.  After watching a day of boring games, this one should be worth waiting for!

Storyline #1:  Playoff Implications:

The game tonight is in Baltimore, and truly at this point in the season, the Ravens need this game slightly more.  But not by much as the Pittsburgh Steelers are 6-4 and the Baltimore Ravens are 5-5.  When these teams faced 3 times last year, it  always had meaning, especially the 3rd time (AFC Championship) for the Super Bowl.  So its no surprise its the same situation this year.  Bottom line, the loser of tonight’s game has a major uphill battle to even make the playoffs.  The reason, because there are 4 other AFC teams in the Wild Card race if the division leaders were to stay the way they are now.  You have the Broncos (7-4), Jaguars (6-4), Dolphins (5-5) and Texans (5-5) all in the mix for the Wild Card as well.  So in my opinion the AFC Wild Card teams will need a 10-6 record or better.  And that’s why tonight’s game is so important.  The loser will have its back against the wall, especially if its the Ravens. 

Storyline #2:  Ben Roethlisberger Out:

When I was up in Pennsylvania visiting family over the holiday, all I heard on the news was that Big Ben was practicing and ready to play.  But Friday night into Saturday, that decison changed and Roethlisberger will be sitting out for tonight’s game.  That means the game is in the hands of Dennis Dixon who has virtually no real NFL game experience.  The Steelers also signed former Pitt QB Tyler Palko as a back-up. 

The Steelers will probably rely on their running game, and they can also rely on Dixon’s feet under pressure.  Dixon was known for his speed when he played in college at Oregon. 

I wonder how Steelers fans feel about all of this for such an important game?  I know my cousin, a diehard Steeler fan, doesn’t want to see Ben get another concussion against the fierce Ravens defense.  But in such a big game, its frustrating not to have your best marquee players out there.

For the Steelers, they need to hope they can establish and rely on the run, and that Dixon plays smart and uses his feet if necessary.  They also need to hope that he doesn’t get knocked out of the game, or else its in the hands of Palko who doesn’t know the Steeler’s offense.  Steelers fans, what do you think going into tonight’s game?

Week 6 preview

October 18, 2009 in Uncategorized by Steve Shoup

Boy what a difference a year makes. Last year a Tampa Bay-Carolina game or New England-Tennessee game would have been the games of the week. This year the only things to watch is if Tom Brady can hit an open receiver or if Jake Delhomme adds to his league leading interception total. Luckily for football fans, there are other interesting matchups to watch. Two that stand out today are the Minnesota-Baltimore game, and the New Orleans-New York Giants.

Minnesota vs Baltimore: The Ravens defense hasn’t been its dominate self this year, and has their toughest task to date with the potent Vikings offense. The Ravens offense has picked up some of the slack, but Baltimore is coming off two straight losses. For the Ravens to win this their offense will need to move the ball, and keep the Vikings offense off the field. “The Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson Show” has been better than expected in Minnesota. Favre is playing his best football in years, and it is having an impact throughout the team. The Vikings are one of the best teams in the NFC this year, and today they will show their superioity over one of the AFC’s best with a 31-17 win.

Saints vs Giants: Other than Minnesota, there are two other undefeated teams in the NFC, the Saints (4-0) and Giants (5-0). Going into this season, everyone thought the Saints had the second best quarterback in the league in Drew Brees.  But Giants quarterback Eli Manning would have something to say about that, an is chasing his older brother for the top QB spot. Eli has been sensational this year, proving his worth week in, week out. The Giants offense has been spectacular this year, and their passing game is even out producing their powerful running attack. The Giants defense, despite being banged up, has still been a top unit that gets a ton of pressure on the QB. This week they will face the best quarterback they’ve faced all season in Brees. Brees has the Saints playing championship football right now. And unlike years past, their running game is not an afterthought. On defense the Saints have vastly improved, and are showing a toughness that we haven’t seen in years past.  I think Giants win a tough battle on the road and stay undefeated at 31-28.