Minnesota Vikings NFL Draft Grades

Round 1, Pick 4 (4) (From Browns)                            Matt Kalil                    T                      USC: Grade A+

Round 1, Pick 29 (29) (From Ravens)                       Harrison Smith            FS         `           Notre Dame: grade B

Round 3, Pick 3 (66)                                        Josh Robinson              CB                    Central Florida: Grade B+

Round 4, Pick 23 (118) (From Falcons                Jarius Wright               WR                  Arkansas: Grade B-

through Browns)

Round 4, Pick 33 (128) (Compensatory)             Rhett Ellison                FB                    USC: Grade C+

Round 4, Pick 39 (134) (Compensatory)             Greg Childs                 WR                  Arkansas: Grade B-

Round 5, Pick 4 (139) (From Browns)                 Robert Blanton            CB                    Notre Dame: Grade B-

Round 6, Pick 5 (175) (From Browns)                       Blair Walsh                 K                      Georgia: Grade C+

Round 7, Pick 3 (210)                                      Audie Cole                   ILB                   North Carolina St.: Grade B

Round 7, Pick 12 (219) (From Seahawks             Trevor Guyton             DE                    California: grade B

through Lions)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS FINAL 7-ROUND MOCK DRAFT:

1^st Round:

#3.  - OT Matt Kalil, USC:

The Vikings could go in other directions, but it would be pretty hard to pass up Matt Kalil. He’s a franchise LT, and can help make the lives easier of both Christian Ponder and Adrian Peterson. He is the most talented tackle to come out since Jake Long, and should have a similar immediate impact.

2^nd Round:

#35. – DT Devon Still, Penn State

3^rd Round:

#66. – WR Brian Quick, App. State

4^th Round:

#98. – CB Casey Hayward, Vanderbilt

#128. (comp)- FS Janzen Jackson, McNeese State

#134. (comp)- RB Cyrus Gray, Texas A&M

5^th Round:

#138. – OLB Keenan Robinson, Texas

6^th Round:

175. Minnesota (via Cleveland)- G Josh LeRibeus, SMU

7^th Round:

#210. – DT Tydreke Powell, UNC

#223. (via New England Patriots) – C Garth Gerhart, Arizona State

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UPDATED March 24, 2012

Minnesota Vikings Team Needs In Priority Order:

1. Offensive Tackle

2. Cornerback

3. Wide Receiver

4. Safety

5. Outside Linebacker

6. Guard

7. Defensive Tackle

8. Running back

CHICAGO BEARS:

29. Gabe Carimi, tackle, Wisconsin: The Bears desperately needed an OT, and I believe they got the 2nd best one in this class. Carimi fits that offense perfectly, and should really have an impact for Chicago.

53. Stephen Paea, defensive tackle, Oregon State: Next to OT, defensive tackle was Chicago’s biggest need. The Bears moved up in the 2nd round to address that need with Paea. I am super high on Paea and think that he will plug their hole in the middle perfectly.

93. Chris Conte, safety, California: This is a little high for Conte, but a lot of scouts apparently had him in this range. Chicago needed secondary help, though I think CB was the bigger need.

160. Nate Enderle, quarterback, Idaho: I love this pick of Enderle late in the draft. He looks like a solid developmental prospect and CHI could use a 3rd QB.

195. J.T. Thomas, linebacker, West Virginia: This is a solid special teams and depth pick for Chicago late.

GRADE: B

I love the top two picks of this class and think Chicago filled their two biggest needs with impact players. Both Carimi and Paea got underrated, as I felt they should have gone each 5-10 picks earlier. The rest of the class doesn’t excite me too much. I like Enderle, but you already have Cutler’s backup in Hanie so it wasn’t a huge need. Conte and Thomas could offer some depth and special teams work, but I don’t see a ton of impact early on. I was a little surprised the Bears did grab a corner or an interior lineman. Chicago’s guard play was just as bad as their tackle play last season, and Center Olin Kreutz is a 38 year old free agent. While the Bear’s corners weren’t bad last season, is it possible to say you are set at the position when you know you will have to face Aaron Rodgers twice a year.

DETROIT LIONS:

13. Nick Fairley, defensive tackle, Auburn: I absolutely love this pick as placing Fairley next to Suh is basically unstoppable. DE’s Cliff Avril and Kyle Van Bosch are going to have a field day with all the attention that is being given to the middle.

44. Titus Young, wide receiver, Boise State: The Lions get another weapon to complement Calvin Johnson, but to do so they passed on a number of need players.

57. Mikel Leshoure, running back, Illinois: Leshoure is great value at this pick, but the Lions did have to trade up for it negating much of that value. While I like Leshoure, Detroit could have stayed where they were and taking a nice complementary back later. Was it worth moving up for a back, who likely won’t be a 25+ carry type of player.

157. Doug Hogue, linebacker, Syracuse: OLB was a huge need for the Lions and Detroit got a great late value here in Hogue. Don’t be shocked if he ends up starting quite a few games this season for Detroit.

209. Johnny Culbreath, tackle, South Carolina State: Culbreath is a nice late round value here, but he isn’t likely to impact the Lions this season.

GRADE: B+

I considered giving the Lions a higher grade given the high quality players they took, but they ignored far too many needs for my liking. I don’t mind the Fairley pick at all, because I think he will be so high impact and make that D-line so good that it will minimize some of the weakness at OLB and CB. My bigger concern is the Young and Leshoure picks. Young is an explosive receiver, but with C. Johnson, B. Pettigrew, T. Scheffler and N. Burleson the Lions were alright when it came to pass catchers. They need need a legit number 2, which will allow Burleson to be a number 3, but I wouldn’t consider it a dire need. As a rookie I have a hard time believing that Young will average more than 4 catches a game (though he might have an impact as a returner as well). Which is a tough sell to me when Detroit could have taken a number of offensive linemen at that spot that could be day one starters. Leshoure is another guy I really like, but how much is he going to play alongside last year’s 1st round pick Javid Best. Leshoure could become the primary back, but Best will still get quite a few carries, and will probably be more involved in the passing attack. I don’t know if trading up for a back makes sense if he is only going to get between 55-65% of the carries. Detroit could have stayed where they were and grabbed a need like a CB/OLB/OL (even if they already addressed it), and taken a quality back (of if they wanted a WR) with the other pick. That back might not be as good as Leshoure, but i’m sure they could have found someone who contributed on 35-40% of snaps.

GREEN BAY PACKERS:

32. Derek Sherrod, tackle, Mississippi State: The Packers number one goal simply has to be keeping Aaron Rodgers upright. Sherrod does that and was a great value pick as well.

64. Randall Cobb, wide receiver, Kentucky: James Jones is a FA and Donald Driver is getting up there in age, so adding another weapon key for the Packers.

96. Alex Green, running back, Hawaii: A bit of a reach here, but Green is a tough inside runner and an excellent pass catcher. He seems to fit their system perfectly so this might end up not being such reach after all.

131. Davon House, cornerback, New Mexico State: House offers good value here and depth. Charles Woodson is still going strong, but his age will catch up with him soon.

141. D.J. Williams, tight end, Arkansas: Another weapon for Aaron Rodgers. Tight end wasn’t a huge need, but this is a great value and I have every confidence that the Packers will find a way to utilize him appropriately.

179. Caleb Schlauderaff, guard, Utah: The Packers needed an interior lineman, and Schlauderaff was one that was getting some solid late round consideration.

186. D.J. Smith, linebacker, Appalachian State: Smith offers depth to the linebacking corps, but this does seem to be a reach pick.

197. Ricky Elmore, linebacker, Arizona: Elmore will probably mainly be used as a situational guy, but he should be a nice pass rushing complement to Clay Matthews.

218. Ryan Taylor, Tight end/FB, North Carolina: Taylor was a ST standout at UNC as well as a FB/H-back. Most thought he’d move to TE, but he is likely to stay at FB if he makes this team. Both Korey Hall and John Kuhn are FA’s so FB could become a need fast for GB. Maybe a slight reach, but his versatility and ST ability could make this a nice pick.

233. Lawrence Guy, defensive end, Arizona State: Absolutely love this pick for the Packers. I simply can’t believe Guy fell this far in the draft. I think he is a great fit at the 5-technique and will have an impact down the road.

GRADE: A-

The Packers did a great job filling their needs and finding excellent values throughout the draft. Reaching for Alex Green was a bit of a surprise, but it filled a need and he looks to be a good system back for them. This is a perfect draft class for a team looking to compete as I feel that most of these guys (if they can make the team) will contribute.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS:

12. Christian Ponder, quarterback, Florida State: While I thought of Ponder as the best QB in this class, I did feel this was a reach. I don’t buy any of the QB’s as top 15 or even top 20 talents so the Vikes jumped the gun while filling a need.

43. Kyle Rudolph, tight end, Notre Dame: TE wasn’t the biggest need, but Rudolph is a great value at this pick and should give Minnesota another big time weapon.

106. Christian Ballard, defensive tackle, Iowa: Ballard is a great value in the 4th round here, and he should help the Vikings both inside and outside in their 4-3 alignment.

139. Brandon Burton, cornerback, Utah: Another strong value pick here, also when you play the Packers and the Bears 4 times you are going to need your fair share of CB’s.

168. DeMarcus Love, tackle/guard, Arkansas: Great late round pick here. Love was no longer a top 50 prospect, but I thought he’d go somewhere around 125. I think at guard he can start early for them, and be an impact lineman down the road.

170. Mistral Raymond, defensive back, South Florida: Raymond is a solid value pick here, but he will likely be just a backup for his career. It does add depth and ST ability so it is well worth it for a 6th rounder.

172. Brandon Fusco, center, Slippery Rock: Good value here. Fusco is a small school kid, who has big time upside. He showed at the Senior Bowl he can play with the best college had to offer.

200. Ross Homan, linebacker, Ohio State: Homan might never be a starter, but he is a nice backup/ST for this spot.

215. D’Aundre Reed, defensive end, Arizona: Reed was another talented pass rusher from Arizona, and could be a nice situational end for the Vikings.

236. Stephen Burton, wide receiver, West Texas A&M: Burton is an good value pick at this spot and I love his upside. I think he has a shot of contributing early and could be a steal of the draft.

GRADE: B+

When I first thought of the Vikings Draft Class I really disliked it, but after looking at it more I realized that really only the Ponder pick bothered me, as that was their one reach. Then thinking about it further, while Ponder maybe went 10-15 spots too early, Minnesota landed what I believe to be the best QB in this class, and they didn’t have to trade up to do so. So in the end I can’t knock Minnesota too much and feel they got excellent value throughout this draft class. I would have maybe liked seeing them grab another receiver earlier, but other than that I thought it was a strong class.

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MOCK DRAFT: Round 1: 17-32: Round 2: Round 3: Round 4

97. Carolina Panthers: QB Ricky Stanzi, Iowa-

I don’t know if the Panthers are sold on the long term future of Jimmy Clausen. While I don’t think they will opt for a QB in round 1, they will keep their eye on the midround guys. Stanzi has some upside, and was extremely productive as a senior in college. Good value for this pick.

98. Seattle Seahawks (from New England via Denver): G/T DeMarcus Love, Arkansas-

The Seahawks need to upgrade their offensive line, if they hope to win the West again. They have needs at guard, and possibly at RT, which means Love versatility is a plus. Personally I like Love more as a guard, and see that as the better fit.

99. Buffalo Bills: ILB Kelvin Sheppard, LSU-

If the Bills resign both Akin Ayodele and Paul Posluszny, then inside linebacker isn’t a huge need, but that could be a big ‘if’. And the Bills might not want to put that much money in the position. Even if they do resign both backers, Sheppard is a great value for this spot, and the Bills could be tempted from a depth standpoint.

100. Cincinnati Bengals: WR Greg Little, North Carolina-

If the Bengals haven’t done so by now they will definitely look to address their receiver position in the mid rounds of the draft. Little has 2nd round talent, but 4th or 5th round red flags attached. Cincinnati has overlooked character concerns in the past, so if they have any indication that Little is past all his troubles they will have no problem snatching him in the 4th round. With T.O. on the way out the door and Chad Johnson likely to follow suit, Little will fill a major need for the Bengals.

101. Cleveland Browns: CB Chimdi Chekwa, Ohio State-

The Browns drafted Joe Haden last year in the first round, but they really don’t have much else at CB. Chekwa has good size and speed but he’s not the complete package. He is good value for this spot, and coming from Ohio State doesn’t hurt either.

102. Arizona Cardinals: G Will Rackley, Leigh-

The Cardinals have major needs along their offensive line, so adding a quality guard like Rackley would be a steal here. Rackley is one of my favorite players in this draft class. I think he has immense upside and will quickly develop into a good starting guard.

103. Philadelphia Eagles (from Washington): OLB K.J. Wright, Miss. State-

The Eagles need a lot of help at both of their OLB, spots and Wright offers great value and upside. He might not be a true starter in year one, but he should be by year two, and Philly should be quite happy with what he becomes.

104. Houston Texans: OLB Chris Carter, Fresno State-

Defense, defense, defense! I know some might hate to see yet another defensive pick, but their offense wasn’t the problem last season. Carter gives them another pass rusher to help allieviate the pressure on their corners and safeties.

105. Minnesota Vikings: WR Austin Pettis, Boise State-

The Vikings will need another weapon if Sidney Rice leaves via free agency this offseason. Even if Rice is retained, Minnesota’s receiver depth could use some fresh blood.

106. Detroit Lions: CB Jalil Brown, Colorado-

After adding their offensive lineman in round 1, the Lions need to add as many defenders as possible in this draft. In particular they need help in their back 7. Brown got overshadowed by his more highly touted teammate (Jimmy Smith), but he is a very talented corner in his own right. Good value here for Detroit.

107. San Francisco 49ers: RB Derrick Locke, Kentucky-

With Brian Westbrooke not likely to return the 49ers will be in the market for a, small quick back out of the backfield. Locke, is a good player and should be a valuable target out of the backfield for whomever lines up behind center.

108. Tennessee Titans: OLB Lawrence Wilson, Connecticut-

The Titans could use an upgrade at outside linebacker, and although Wilson might not be ready to start he would add much needed depth and should develop into a starting role.

109. Dallas Cowboys: G Zach Hurd, Connecticut-

The Cowboys need to really invest some picks into their offensive line, and Hurd is good value for this slot. He could need a year to develop, but should be at the very least the Cowboys primary reserved guard.

110. Miami Dolphins: WR Vincent Brown, San Diego State-

This needs to be an offensive draft for the Dolphins and jumping on the 4th round receiver bandwagon would seem like a good idea. Miami is set with their starting two receivers, but they could use a third option to help jump start their offense. Brown caught just about everything thrown his way at the Senior Bowl and would be a fine addition to the Dolphins.

111. St. Louis Rams: DE Greg Romeus, Pittsburgh-

Although DE isn’t a major need for the Rams, Romeus is a great value at this pick. Going into this past season he seemed like a sure-fire 1st rounder. While injuries have obviously caused him to slide, he is a find in the 4th round. James Hall is 34 years old, and probably can’t be counted on to have too many more great seasons.

112. Oakland Raiders: TE Luke Stocker, Tennessee-

Given all the big contracts they’ve handed out of late, I don’t know if the Raiders have the resources to pay big money to their tight end Zach Miller. If that’s the case look for them to target a replacement in the mid rounds. Stocker is the most complete tight end on the board, and should replace Miller fairly well.

113. Jacksonville Jaguars: WR Terrence Toliver, LSU-

The Jaguars are going to be losing WR Mike Sims-Walker this offseason so a mid round replacement, will help ensure the Jags offense doesn’t suffer too much.

114. San Francisco 49ers (from San Diego): FS Chris Culliver, South Carolina-

The 49ers could use more help in their secondary and Culliver is the best free safety on the board at this point. I like Culliver’s upside and I really do believe he can become a starter at the next level.

115. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: RB Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State-

Tampa could be in the market for a small shifty back to complement Blount this season. I love Rodgers, but I doubt he gets picked much higher than this due to his bad timed speed. Bucs fans shouldn’t worry though as, he plays quite a bit faster than the stopwatch suggests.

116. New York Giants: TE D.J. Williams, Arkansas-

Kevin Boss is a free agent so if he leaves the Giants will need to address their need at some point in this draft.

117. Kansas City Chiefs: C Tim Barnes, Missouri-

The Chiefs starting center is going to be 38 years old, it might just be time to think about a replacement. Barnes has some upside and should develop into a starting caliber guy.

118. Indianapolis Colts: S Ahmad Black, Florida-

I know some will say that Black isn’t big enough to hold up as a starting strong safety, but you have to love the kid’s heart, ball skills, and football I.Q. I think he will be just fine at the next level, and I don’t see the Colts having any problems with his diminutive size. Bob Sanders their former star safety wasn’t known for his size, yet he was one of the best safeties in the league when healthy.

119. Philadelphia Eagles: OT Jah Reid, UCF-

If Marcus Cannon ends up at guard (either short or long term) the Eagles could use a young RT to develop. Reid has a lot of size and potential, and looks to be a good fit for Philly.

120. Jacksonville Jaguars (from New Orleans): S Jeron Johnson, Boise State-

The Jags need to double up at safety in this draft class, and Johnson is a good pick for this spot. While some see him more of a strong safety, I really think he can handle the center field spot.

121. Buffalo Bills: (from Seattle): G Steve Schilling, Michigan-

Buffalo needs to keep upgrading their offensive line, particularly if they plan on grooming a young quarterback.

122. Baltimore Ravens: RB Roy Helu, Nebraska-

As much as the Ravens are looking to improve their passing attack, they still need to rely on their ground game if they have any shot of competing for a Super Bowl berth. With Le’Ron McClain a free agent and Willis McGahee likely to be released, Baltimore needs to find an upgrade. Helu has great value at this spot, and should be a great number 2 back to Rice.

123. Atlanta Falcons: DE Cliff Matthews, South Carolina-

The Falcons need to make sure they don’t ignore their defense this offseason as they look to retool for another playoff run. Defensive end is their primary need area, as they need to create more consistent pressure on the quarterback. Matthews is a bit limited overall, but I think he fits well as a situational pass rusher, making him a good fit for the end of the 4th round.

124. New England Patriots: NT Jerrell Powe, Mississippi-

Powe might not be the biggest need for the Patriots, but his presence will allow Vince Wilfork to play on the outside some as well as rest up more, which should make him an even bigger force late in games. Powe isn’t a star NT, but he is capable of playing in the NFL and having a significant impact.

125. New York Jets: NT Ian Williams, Notre Dame-

The past two seasons the Jets lost their starting NT in week one, and while their backups handled the job well, they need to add quality depth to that position. Williams isn’t just your traditional space eating nose tackle, but he gets excellent leverage and holds up at the point of attack.

126. Chicago Bears: CB Rashard Carmichael, Virginia Tech-

For the Bears to win the North again and make another run at the Super Bowl, they will need to get past Aaron Rodgers. Which means having as many talented corners as possible is a pretty good idea. Carmichael offers good value here, and has good upside. He doesn’t run the fastest or look the best in drills, but when he’s on the field you know he can play.

127. Pittsburgh Steelers: CB Buster Skrine, Chattanooga-

Ditto…The Steelers know first hand what it is like to have to face the Packers and their receivers. Pittsburgh has to improve this secondary as they can’t rely solely on the pass rush.

128. Green Bay Packers: DE/DT Terrell McClain, South Florida-

The Packers could lose Cullen Jenkins to free agency, which would make this a bigger need, but even if they keep him McClain is good value for them here.

Round 1 picks 1-16
Round 1 picks 17-32
Round 2
Round 3

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MOCK DRAFT: Round 1: 17-32: Round 2: Round 3: Round 4

*Now Updated with the First Four Rounds!

1. Carolina Panthers: DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama-

With no Andrew Luck in the mix the Panthers, will go to plan B, which is to choose from one of the elite defensive players in the draft or wide receiver A.J. Green. There might be a big push for the Panthers to go for Green, given their need for a play making receiver (especially to help in the development of Jimmy Claussen), but I think that would be a big mistake. The Panthers have spent a number of draft picks on  receivers the last few years, and while Green is better than all of them, that is just too many resources to put into one position, especially when they have so many other holes. While there are some people who will point to Cam Newton as the answer, he simply isn’t a franchise quarterback of the ilk of Peyton Manning.

While I considered Bowers for the top spot, and have had Fairley there before I think Dareus makes the most sense. While the Panthers could use star DE Charles Johnson, he also might no longer fit in their system. New HC Ron Rivera has talked about employing both the 4-3 and the 3-4. That would make Dareus the be perfect fit for the the Panthers as he as adept to playing both inside at tackle and outside as a 3-4 end. While it isn’t his primary position, Dareus could even play some NT as well. Wherever he is lining up, Dareus projects to be a force at the next level. He should be an excellent run defender and put more than ample pressure on the quarterback.

Feb. 1st update: Still think Fairley is the pick here, combine, workouts and background work will all be crucial. The reports about his attitude are troubling, but not sold yet that it changes anything.

Feb. 17th update: No change at the top Fairley is still the best fit for the Panthers.

Feb. 24th update: Bowers is gaining some steam, especially if they lose Johnson. But Fairley is still the best fit for the Panthers.

Mar. 2nd update: It wasn’t the greatest combine for Fairley, but I hardly think it was the worst. Dareus might be moving up, but DT is a huge need and Fairley still has the best game tape.

pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection, DT Nick Fairley

Mar. 20th update: Dareus still makes the most sense for the Panthers, though persistent rumors about quarterbacks worry me. Carolina has a lot of needs so this could go a number of directions, but for me Dareus is the top player in this draft and a HUGE need for the Panthers.

2. Denver Broncos: DE Da’Quan Bowers, Clemson-

With the Broncos officially resigning Champ Bailey, I think corner back slides a few notches down their needs list. The Broncos need help along the defensive line, and while initially I thought either Fairley or Dareus, would be the pick here, I think Bowers is the best fit. Bowers is the rare combination of a DE, who has the size and bulk to hold up in the running game, and get effective pressure on the quarterback. The Broncos still need a DT (actually two of them), but would be better served with drafting one with one of their two 2nd round picks. Bowers and Dumervil would give Denver the book end pass rushers that every team is looking for.

Feb. 1st update: Still think CB is the pick here and believe that Amukamara is that guy.

Feb. 17th update: Still like Prince over Peterson, but Peterson is closing the gap for me. Also think Denver could be the type of team that prefers Peterson. I keep Prince up here for now, but it is getting close.

pick change: previous selection Feb. 17th CB Prince Amukamara

pick change: previous selection Feb. 24th DE Da’Quan Bowers

pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection DT Marcell Dareus

Mar. 20th update: Fairley is working his way back up the draft boards and Denver could go for a stud young corner, but getting a bookend to Dumervil makes a lot of sense. It is a deeper DT draft than it is a DE draft so the Broncos would be wise to take the top end in this class.

3. Buffalo Bills: OLB Von Miller, Texas A&M-

As the days go by Miller’s stock keeps rising and rising, to the point that I just can’t see the Bills passing on him. I know they could go QB here, or the top corner on their board, but Miller is an elite talent and fills a major need. He’s making it harder and harder for the Bills to pass him up, to the point that I just can’t see it happening.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Von Miller

Feb. 24th update: I’m not buying the Newton to Buffalo rumors, though I guess anything is possible considering they took Spiller last year. The Bills I think will look DE/OLB/CB before considering Newton. I like Dareus more than most and say he is probably the best fit for a 3-4 team.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection DE/DT Marcell Dareus

Mar. 6th update: I think this is maybe a little high, but the Bills could use a CB upgrade and Peterson looks like a star.

pick change: Mar. 6th previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

4. Cincinnati Bengals: QB Cam Newton, Auburn-

While wide receiver could be the pick, or DE with Bowers on the board, I’m thinking the Bengals bite the bullet and grab Newton. Newton’s workout was a start, and if he follows it up with a big combine and pro day he will likely be picked in the top 5. If the Bengals can’t convince Palmer to come back and play, they will look for his replacement. Personally, I think that this is far too high for Newton, but some team will pull the trigger on him. It will be tough to pass up A.J. Green, but it could end up happening with Newton on the board.

Feb. 1st update: Yes quarterback could be an issue if Palmer follows through with his trade demands, but I don’t think there is anyone worth taking at this spot.

pick change: Feb. 1st selection WR A.J. Green

Feb. 24th update: I still see Newton as the fit in Cincinnati, although personally I think it is far too early for Newton.

Mar. 2nd update: Newton isn’t a top 10 quarterback, but I see the Bengals over drafting him. I really believe Palmer is done in Cincinnati, and Newton will be his eventual replacement.

Mar. 6th update: If there is one top 5 team that would pick Newton it has to be the Bengals. They need to move on from Palmer and they don’t mind taking a risk on guys.

Mar. 20th update: This is one of those things that makes too much sense for it not to happen. The Bengals are the type of team that will overvalue Newton and be ‘wowed’ by his athletic ability.

5. Arizona Cardinals: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU-

In some ways I think the Cardinals are ‘Von Miller or bust’ with this top 5 pick. While Peterson, would be excellent value and strengthen the team, he doesn’t represent a major need. While QB is a major need, I don’t see the Cards as players for Newton, and Gabbert might be too rich at the 5th pick for them. Given the depth of quarterbacks the Cardinals should be able to find a good young prospect in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. While there are other talented pass rushers in Quinn and Smith I don’t see the Cards pulling the trigger here. Arizona also desperately needs offensive tackles, but this is a bit rich for Tyron Smith, though I gave it fairly strong consideration.

In my opinion if Miller is off the board, look for Arizona to move down, either for a team that wants Peterson, or Gabbert (with Fairley or Green intriguing guys to move up for as well). If they keep the pick Peterson is an option, but more for value than need.

pick change: Jan. 25 Previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

Feb. 24th update: Miller will need to have a big combine to secure this top 5 spot, but I believe that he will, and the Cards will be quite happy with their selection.

Mar. 2nd update: Miller looked very good at the combine, and while he was a little stiff in the hips he will spend most of his time in opponents backfields, so I don’t see that turning off the Cardinals.

Mar. 6th update: Some will push for the Cards to add a QB, but I just don’t see that happening. Miller is an elite talent and barring an injury should be the Cards pick.

pick change: Mar. 6th previous selection OLB Von Miller

6. Cleveland Browns: WR A.J. Green, Georgia-

The Browns have two major needs (WR and DE) and either one could make sense for this pick. I have previously linked them to both a receiver and defensive end, but now I believe they will look receiver first. Although I don’t normally advocate receivers over more important positions, like the defensive line, it is hard to argue against Green. Green has the skill set and potential to be the next elite receiver in this league. Given the Browns lack of a quality wide receiver, Green makes a lot of sense for them. Although, they could still look at DE with a guy like Robert Quinn or Aldon Smith, I think Green is too good to pass up.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection WR Julio Jones

Feb. 17th update: There is a chance Bowers could be off the board, but I still am pretty strong on this pick. He is the perfect fit for the 4-3 and is a huge need for the Browns. A.J. Green is a very real option for the Browns here, and I could move him back up dependent on his combine.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection DE De’Quan Bowers

Mar. 2nd update: With Julio Jones’ performance at the combine he could be fighting Green to be the first receiver selected. I think Green still is the top choice and will end up being the Brown’s choice.

Mar. 6th update: I still like Green more than Jones and feel he is the perfect weapon for the Browns to help develop Colt McCoy.

Mar. 20th update: With Nick Fairley’s strong Pro Day, I’m considering him strongly for this spot, but the Browns should be able to fill their DT need in the 2nd round. I think Green is too good to pass up at this spot.

7. San Francisco 49ers: QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri-

I’ve had the 49ers taking a quarterback for awhile, but we could be looking at an extended lockout that could make it difficult to land an established veteran. If that is the case the 49ers could very well look at Gabbert. Gabbert isn’t totally NFL ready, but he is fairly close, and he isn’t likely to be a complete bust. Given the talent on defense, San Francisco, could hope to forgo, adding an elite corner.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection, QB Blaine Gabbert

Feb. 17th update: I could see the 49ers look long and hard at both Gabbert and Robert Quinn with this pick, but right now I can’t see them not taking Peterson, who is a steal at 7 and a perfect playmaker.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection CB Prince Amukamara

Mar. 6th update: Gabbert is a good pick for the 49ers and can help begin the revival of that franchise. I think he will need a little time, but he should be a quick study under Harbaugh.

Mar. 20th update: I have very mixed feelings about grabbing Gabbert here, but I think Harbaugh wants a young signal caller and Gabbert is the best in this class.

8. Tennessee Titans: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn-

The Titans have been searching for an inside pass rusher for a couple years now, and now they finally have one in Nick Fairley. Fairley is a top 5 talent, but one that could slip since he isn’t as good of a fit in the 3-4. Fairley will be a big boost to the Titans pass rush, that could be hurting from the potential loss of Jason Babin. Tennessee needs a disruptor along their defensive line and that fits Fairley perfectly.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE De’Quan Bowers

Feb. 17th update: It is really hard to say what direction the Titans go, but Gabbert has got to be on their short list. I don’t think he is a great quarterback prospect, but I do like the upside.

Feb. 24th update: I really don’t love this pick for the Titans, but it is hard not to go with it. They desperately need a quarterback, and at least have some talent around him on offense.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection: QB Blaine Gabbert

pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection: WR Julio Jones

Mar. 20th update: The Titans have other needs, but I can’t see Fairley sliding any further than this.

9. Dallas Cowboys: CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska-

The Cowboys have many needs, but I see them going hard after a corner back in this draft. I think Amukamara is the best CB, in this class and an absolute steal for them at this pick. Personally I think Amukamara is the best corner in this draft and will automatically revitalize their secondary.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection, OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection, DE Marcel Dareus

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection, OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection, CB Patrick Peterson

Mar. 6th update: When you have Hakeem Nicks, and DeSean Jackson in your division you need to find a way to matchup. Even Rex Grossman threw for 400 yards against this Cowboys secondary, so CB is definitely a need.

Mar. 20th update: Cowboys could be a prime team to trade up for Peterson, but I think they will be quite content with their ‘consolation’ prize in Amukamara

10. Washington Redskins: OLB/ DE Aldon Smith, Missouri-

While a lot of people will try to ‘mock’ the Redskins a quarterback, that is not the direction this team should be going in. I could also see the Redskins as a prime team to trade back, given their vast needs and small number of picks, but I’m not predicting trades in this mock. In this version of the draft, I have A.J. Green available, which I know a number of fans would jump at, but that too is the wrong choice. The Redskins need to fix their offensive line, and their front 7 on defense, to become a contender. Until then it doesn’t matter who they have at receiver, since the quarterback will never get the ball to him.

I’ve had a 5 technique defensive end mocked here the last two weeks, but I’m going to change my tune a little and go with Aldon Smith. Smith will complement Orakpo on the other side and give the Redskins an incredible pass rush tandem. While defensive end is a priority it is such a deep draft that you can get a really good one in the 2nd round. I think Robert Quinn will get some looks here as well, but Smith might be a better fit.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE Marcell Dareus

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection DE Cam Jordan

Feb. 24th update: The more I see of Smith the more I love him, I think he is going to be a dominate pass rusher at the next level.

Mar. 2nd update: I thought Smith had a great combine and really began to separate himself for me.

Mar. 6th update: I know I’m a lot higher on Smith than most, but I think 3 years from now when you look back at this draft he will end up being a top 10 player.

Mar. 20th update: I know in this scenario most people would peg Jones or Quinnf for this pick, but I think Smith has a real chance of being something special.

11. Houston Texans: OLB Robert Quinn, North Carolina-

Houston will be in the midst of transitioning to a 3-4 defense, and with no corner back to take they should focus this pick on grabbing a front 7 player. This pick should come down to either a rush linebacker or a 3-4 DE. I go back and forth about which position the Texans should address, but if they feel like Quinn can stand up, then he has to be their pick. The Texans have at least average defensive ends, but they don’t have much in the way of pass rush specialists. I know they plan is to use Mario Williams in a hybrid formation, and that could work, but they need someone who is more natural at the position. I still have some doubts about Quinn, but he does have the upside to be an elite pass rusher, and that is exactly what the Texans need.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Von Miller

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Aldon Smith

Feb. 24th update: The Texans could look to move up or down in this draft, but adding an elite pass rusher is paramount as they make the 3-4 switch.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

Mar. 6th update: Cam Jordan is a great fit for the Texans and upgrading that line with 3-4 players is key. A pass rusher is possible, but Jordan is too good to pass up

pick change: Mar. 16th previous selection, DE Cam Jordan

12. Minnesota Vikings: OLB Cameron Jordan, California-

While Cameron Jordan isn’t a prototypical 4-3 defensive end, he is still quick enough to rush effectively from that position. Jordan’s ability to play inside, fits well with the Vikings since he can move inside to replace Pat Williams on passing downs. Adding Jordan to the front line, will go a long way to helping the Vikings defense return to elite status.

Feb. 1st update: I realize there are some Vince Young to the Vikings rumors, but I still see Newton as the pick here until that happens.

pick change: Feb. 1st pevious selection QB Cam Newton

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection WR A.J. Green

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection WR Jon Baldwin

pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection DE Da’Quan Bowers

pick change:Mar. 6th previous selection DE Robert Quinn

13. Detroit Lions: OT Tyron Smith, USC-

I know corner and linebacker are need spots, but they aren’t anything compared to Detroit’s need at left tackle. What the Lions have done in terms of protecting (or not protecting) Matt Stafford is flat out insane. You spend $60 million on a guy and you put him in a situation where he can’t succeed and needs to run for his life. The Lions have to fix that this offseason and grabbing Smith would be a smart move. In addition to the pain the offensive line has caused their quarterbacks, the Lions running game hasn’t fared much better. Their backs have one of the worst yards per carry in the league, and can never pick up the tough yards. I know defense wins championships, but Smith is a top notch talent and can protect Stafford for the next decade.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

Mar. 2nd update: Smith didn’t do the workouts, but he had an impressive combine nonetheless. Just by weighing in over 300 lbs, he showed that he is a top 15 talent. He will make Matt Stafford a very happy quarterback, and Lions fans should be thrilled that their offensive line is improving.

Mar. 6th update: Smith is still the top tackle on the board and his presence will allow Backus (a better run blocker) kick over to the RT spot, strengthening their line in two areas.

Mar. 20th update:All of the Lions other needs can be addressed in the 2nd-4th rounds, one thing they won’t be able to fix in those rounds is adding a stud LT. That is why Smith has to be the pick here, and any other pick will not do enough

14. St. Louis Rams: WR Julio Jones, Alabama-

The Rams need to walk away from this draft with a frontline receiver, which means they need to address this position in the first round. Now I’m not conceding my personal rankings in terms of who should go first between Julio Jones and Jon Baldwin, but I think it is time to concede the fact that Jones will go first. I think teams will fall in love with his incredible combine numbers, and slightly overdraft Jones. It’s not that I am anit-Jones, its just that I worry about how refined he is. That being said, he will be a major upgrade for the Rams and they will be thrilled to land him with this pick. If they feel he could get drafted earlier, don’t be surprised if St. Louis looks to move up a couple of spots to secure his services.

Feb 1st update: This pick will be either Baldwin or Jones unless the Rams grab a couple big receivers in free agency. They have to add weapons for Bradford and I don’t see them changing course.

Feb. 17th update: I think Baldwin is going to really kill it at the combine and pro day, which will cement this pick. I think there is a case to be made that he is even better than A.J. Green, but I’m guessing Green’s hype wins out.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection WR Jon Baldwin

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection WR Julio Jones

Mar. 6th update: I know some fans don’t like Baldwin too much, but don’t buy the hype, this guy is a stud and just as deserving to go top 15 as Julio Jones. Yes they could go DE or DT here, but I’m a big believer in Baldwin and think he will be the best of the 3 receivers

pick change: Mar. 6th previous selection WR Jon Baldwin

15. Miami Dolphins: RB Mark Ingram, Alabama-

I’ve had Ryan Kerrigan here for a couple of weeks now, but I have to change this to running back and Mark Ingram. I do think the Dolphins need another rush linebacker, it isn’t nearly as pressing of a need. Miami right now doesn’t have anyone capable of significant playing time on their running back depth chart. That means the need someone they know can start, not someone who might be able to start, like a late round pick. If the Dolphins had a 2nd rounder, I’d still maybe hold off. But not having a pick until the 3rd round, puts Ingram right here. I’m not a huge Ingram fan, and would say this is a good 10 spots too high, but he does fill a primary need for the Dolphins.

Feb. 1st update: Still not buying a quarterback here or a running back. If for some reason Gabbert falls I could see him being taken, but no way Mallett or Locker get picked here. Ingram is a nice back, but not top 15 worthy. Dolphins should stay the course and strengthen that defense.

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Ryan Kerrigan

Feb. 24th update: I don’t love this Ingram pick, but until the Dolphins do something in their backfield it is hard for me to ignore the position.

Mar. 2nd update: Ingram had a good combine, but I think he needed to show a little more to be a top 15 pick. Right now I’m keeping this pick, but Miami might be better served trading back or filling their need via free agency.

Mar. 6th update: I want to see more out of Ingram to say he is top 15 worthy, but it is such a need for Miami I can’t pass it up.

Mar. 20th update: Ingram is still a fringe top 20 player for me, but Miami’s need is too great to ignore him at this point.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars: DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa:

Clayborn was once thought to be a top 10 pick, but slipped some due to a poor senior campaign. Clayborn’s senior numbers weren’t entirely his fault as teams routinely double teamed him, and ran plays away from the powerful defensive end. Clayborn isn’t a dominate pass rusher, but he has the skills to get between 7-10 sacks a season. Clayborn will help continue to boost a Jacksonville pass rush that let them down when it mattered the most.

Feb. 1st update: Clayborn could be slipping and I nearly had him fall into the 20′s, but still have enough confidence to keep him here. Not participating in the Senior Bowl didn’t help his stock, and at this point unless he has an incredible combine I think the best he can hope for is being taken right here. The Jags could look corner or safety, but my guess is they stay with a lineman.

Feb. 17th update: I still like Clayborn to the Jags, though a guy like Kerrigan could be in the mix as well. Cam Jordan is guy who is falling, but really shouldn’t. He fits better inside on a 4-3, but the Jags could find a place for him. I think Clayborn has the inside edge, and is still a good fit here.

Feb. 24th update: Clayborn fits with the Jags and I think he is their number one target.

Mar. 2nd update: I like Clayborn maybe more than most, but I thought he looked pretty good at the Combine. I think the Jags will be in the market for a DE, and right now Clayborn is at the top of my list.

Mar. 6th update: Clayborn makes a lot of sense at this pick and while there are a couple of other respectable options I really think this is the way they go.

Mar. 20th update: I’m very close to switching this pick to Ryan Kerrigan, and I debated long and hard about the merits between the two defensive ends. In the end I just feel Clayborn is the great value and better all around DE, while Kerrigan is the better pure pash rusher.

Round 1 Picks 17-32
Round 2
Round 3
Round 4

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97. Carolina Panthers: QB Ricky Stanzi, Iowa-

I don’t know if the Panthers are sold on the long term future of Jimmy Clausen. While I don’t think they will opt for a QB in round 1, they will keep their eye on the midround guys. Stanzi has some upside, and was extremely productive as a senior in college. Good value for this pick.

98. Seattle Seahawks (from New England via Denver): G/T DeMarcus Love, Arkansas-

The Seahawks need to upgrade their offensive line, if they hope to win the West again. They have needs at guard, and possibly at RT, which means Love versatility is a plus. Personally I like Love more as a guard, and see that as the better fit.

99. Buffalo Bills: ILB Kelvin Sheppard, LSU-

If the Bills resign both Akin Ayodele and Paul Posluszny, then inside linebacker isn’t a huge need, but that could be a big ‘if’. And the Bills might not want to put that much money in the position. Even if they do resign both backers, Sheppard is a great value for this spot, and the Bills could be tempted from a depth standpoint.

100. Cincinnati Bengals: RB DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma-

The Bengals need an upgrade in their backfield even if Cedric Benson does return. Murray at his best is a strong and powerful runner, who flashes the ability to be a number 1 guy. I’m not a huge fan of his and think this is an overdraft, but there is some upside there.

101. Cleveland Browns: CB Chimdi Chekwa, Ohio State-

The Browns drafted Joe Haden last year in the first round, but they really don’t have much else at CB. Chekwa has good size and speed but he’s not the complete package. He is good value for this spot, and coming from Ohio State doesn’t hurt either.

102. Arizona Cardinals: OLB/DE Ugo Chinasa, Oklahoma State-

The Cardinals need to add multiple pass rushers as former Steelers LB’s Joey Porter and Clark Haggans are on the downside of their career. Chinasa is rising up draft boards and displays a lot of potential.

103. Philadelphia Eagles (from Washington): OLB K.J. Wright, Miss. State-

The Eagles need a lot of help at both of their OLB, spots and Wright offers great value and upside. He might not be a true starter in year one, but he should be by year two, and Philly should be quite happy with what he becomes.

104. Houston Texans: NT Jerrell Powe, Mississippi-

Defense, defense, defense! I know some might hate to see yet another defensive pick, but their offense wasn’t the problem last season. Powe isn’t a great pass rusher, but he should help out on early downs in stopping the run.

105. Minnesota Vikings: DE Greg Romeus, Pittsburgh-

The Vikings could use another defensive end as Ray Edwards is primed to leave, and their depth is suspect at best. This is also a high value pick, as Romeus is a first round talent, but has fallen due to injuries this past season. If he grades out medically, this is a complete steal for the Vikings.
106. Detroit Lions: CB Jalil Brown, Colorado-

After adding their offensive lineman in round 1, the Lions need to add as many defenders as possible in this draft. In particular they need help in their back 7. Brown got overshadowed by his more highly touted teammate (Jimmy Smith), but he is a very talented corner in his own right. Good value here for Detroit.
107. San Francisco 49ers: RB Derrick Locke, Kentucky-

With Brian Westbrooke not likely to return the 49ers will be in the market for a, small quick back out of the backfield. Locke, is a good player and should be a valuable target out of the backfield for whomever lines up behind center.
108. Tennessee Titans: WR Austin Pettis, Boise State-

While the Titans have decent receivers, they could use a mid-late round pick to help strengthen the position. Pettis is good value here and looks to be a good possession receiver at the next level.
109. Dallas Cowboys: WR Greg Little, North Carolina-

Receiver isn’t the biggest need for the Cowboys on paper, but they are likely to part with Roy Williams this offseason, so an upgrade could be in order. Little is a great value at this spot, and should step in immediately to their 3rd receiver spot.
110. Miami Dolphins: WR Vincent Brown, San Diego State-

This needs to be an offensive draft for the Dolphins and jumping on the 4th round receiver bandwagon would seem like a good idea. Miami is set with their starting two receivers, but they could use a third option to help jump start their offense. Brown caught just about everything thrown his way at the Senior Bowl and would be a fine addition to the Dolphins.
111. St. Louis Rams: S Tyler Sash, Iowa-

The Rams safety position was a weakness, even before they released O.J Atogwe, and he was signed by the Redskins. Now they could use help at both spots. While most feel that Sash is a strong safety only, I see good ball skills and think he could maybe even play free safety. I love his upside and feel like he is the best pick for St. Louis here.
112. Oakland Raiders: TE Luke Stocker, Tennessee-

Given all the big contracts they’ve handed out of late, I don’t know if the Raiders have the resources to pay big money to their tight end Zach Miller. If that’s the case look for them to target a replacement in the mid rounds. Stocker is the most complete tight end on the board, and should replace Miller fairly well.
113. Jacksonville Jaguars: WR Terrence Toliver, LSU-

The Jaguars are going to be losing WR Mike Sims-Walker this offseason so a mid round replacement, will help ensure the Jags offense doesn’t suffer too much.
114. San Francisco 49ers (from San Diego): WR Darvin Adams, Auburn-

The 49ers don’t have much beyond their starting receivers, and they should look to add at least one this April. I’m not a huge Adams fan, but he has some decent skills, and is reportedly a fantastic worker and teammate. He offers decent value for this pick.
115. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: RB Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State-

Tampa could be in the market for a small shifty back to complement Blount this season. I love Rodgers, but I doubt he gets picked much higher than this due to his bad timed speed. Bucs fans shouldn’t worry though as, he plays quite a bit faster than the stopwatch suggests.
116. New York Giants: TE D.J. Williams, Arkansas-

Kevin Boss is a free agent so if he leaves the Giants will need to address their need at some point in this draft.
117. Kansas City Chiefs: C Tim Barnes, Missouri-

The Chiefs starting center is going to be 38 years old, it might just be time to think about a replacement. Barnes has some upside and should develop into a starting caliber guy.
118. Indianapolis Colts: S Ahmad Black, Florida-

I know some will say that Black isn’t big enough to hold up as a starting strong safety, but you have to love the kid’s heart, ball skills, and football I.Q. I think he will be just fine at the next level, and I don’t see the Colts having any problems with his diminutive size. Bob Sanders their former star safety wasn’t known for his size, yet he was one of the best safeties in the league when healthy.
119. Philadelphia Eagles: OT Jah Reid, UCF-

If Marcus Cannon ends up at guard (either short or long term) the Eagles could use a young RT to develop. Reid has a lot of size and potential, and looks to be a good fit for Philly.
120. Jacksonville Jaguars (from New Orleans): S Jeron Johnson, Boise State-

The Jags need to double up at safety in this draft class, and Johnson is a good pick for this spot. While some see him more of a strong safety, I really think he can handle the center field spot.
121. Buffalo Bills: (from Seattle): G Zach Hurd, Connecticut-

Buffalo needs to keep upgrading their offensive line, particularly if they plan on grooming a young quarterback.
122. Baltimore Ravens: RB Roy Helu, Nebraska-

As much as the Ravens are looking to improve their passing attack, they still need to rely on their ground game if they have any shot of competing for a Super Bowl berth. With Le’Ron McClain a free agent and Willis McGahee likely to be released, Baltimore needs to find an upgrade. Helu has great value at this spot, and should be a great number 2 back to Rice.
123. Atlanta Falcons: WR Edmund Gates, Abilene Christian-

Atlanta needs to keep adding weapons for their offense, and Gates offers good 4th round value. He has the speed to stretch the field, and should fit in nicely as a slot receiver.
124. New England Patriots: S Joe Lefeged, Rutgers-

Joe Lefeged is one of my favorite players in this draft class. He can play either safety position and should be a huge help on special teams for the Patriots. I think he offers great 4th round value, and makes a promising young secondary even better going forward.
125. New York Jets: NT Ian Williams, Notre Dame-

The past two seasons the Jets lost their starting NT in week one, and while their backups handled the job well, they need to add quality depth to that position. Williams isn’t just your traditional space eating nose tackle, but he gets excellent leverage and holds up at the point of attack.
126. Chicago Bears: CB Rashard Carmichael, Virginia Tech-

For the Bears to win the North again and make another run at the Super Bowl, they will need to get past Aaron Rodgers. Which means having as many talented corners as possible is a pretty good idea. Carmichael offers good value here, and has good upside. He doesn’t run the fastest or look the best in drills, but when he’s on the field you know he can play.
127. Pittsburgh Steelers: CB Buster Skrine, Chattanooga-

Ditto…The Steelers know first hand what it is like to have to face the Packers and their receivers. Pittsburgh has to improve this secondary as they can’t rely solely on the pass rush.
128. Green Bay Packers: DE/DT Terrell McClain, South Florida-

The Packers could lose Cullen Jenkins to free agency, which would make this a bigger need, but even if they keep him McClain is good value for them here.

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* NOW UPDATED WITH THE FIRST FOUR ROUNDS!

1. Carolina Panthers: DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama-

With no Andrew Luck in the mix the Panthers, will go to plan B, which is to choose from one of the elite defensive players in the draft or wide receiver A.J. Green. There might be a big push for the Panthers to go for Green, given their need for a play making receiver (especially to help in the development of Jimmy Claussen), but I think that would be a big mistake. The Panthers have spent a number of draft picks on  receivers the last few years, and while Green is better than all of them, that is just too many resources to put into one position, especially when they have so many other holes. While there are some people who will point to Cam Newton as the answer, he simply isn’t a franchise quarterback of the ilk of Peyton Manning.

While I considered Bowers for the top spot, and have had Fairley there before I think Dareus makes the most sense. While the Panthers could use star DE Charles Johnson, he also might no longer fit in their system. New HC Ron Rivera has talked about employing both the 4-3 and the 3-4. That would make Dareus the be perfect fit for the the Panthers as he as adept to playing both inside at tackle and outside as a 3-4 end. While it isn’t his primary position, Dareus could even play some NT as well. Wherever he is lining up, Dareus projects to be a force at the next level. He should be an excellent run defender and put more than ample pressure on the quarterback.

Feb. 1st update: Still think Fairley is the pick here, combine, workouts and background work will all be crucial. The reports about his attitude are troubling, but not sold yet that it changes anything.

Feb. 17th update: No change at the top Fairley is still the best fit for the Panthers.

Feb. 24th update: Bowers is gaining some steam, especially if they lose Johnson. But Fairley is still the best fit for the Panthers.

Mar. 2nd update: It wasn’t the greatest combine for Fairley, but I hardly think it was the worst. Dareus might be moving up, but DT is a huge need and Fairley still has the best game tape.

pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection, DT Nick Fairley

2. Denver Broncos: DE Da’Quan Bowers, Clemson-

With the Broncos officially resigning Champ Bailey, I think corner back slides a few notches down their needs list. The Broncos need help along the defensive line, and while initially I thought either Fairley or Dareus, would be the pick here, I think Bowers is the best fit. Bowers is the rare combination of a DE, who has the size and bulk to hold up in the running game, and get effective pressure on the quarterback. The Broncos still need a DT (actually two of them), but would be better served with drafting one with one of their two 2nd round picks. Bowers and Dumervil would give Denver the book end pass rushers that every team is looking for.

Feb. 1st update: Still think CB is the pick here and believe that Amukamara is that guy.

Feb. 17th update: Still like Prince over Peterson, but Peterson is closing the gap for me. Also think Denver could be the type of team that prefers Peterson. I keep Prince up here for now, but it is getting close.

pick change: previous selection Feb. 17th CB Prince Amukamara

pick change: previous selection Feb. 24th DE Da’Quan Bowers

pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection DT Marcell Dareus

3. Buffalo Bills: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU-

The Bills could go any number of ways, but I’m guessing they focus on the defensive side of the ball, which is the strength of this draft. With Fairley and Dareus off the board I think they might target LSU CB Patrick Peterson. Peterson is a playmaker, and the Bills are sorely lacking that on defense. Corner back isn’t a major need, but the Bills face some good receivers and quarterbacks in their division and they might want to matchup. Von Miller makes a lot of sense here as well, but I’m guessing the hype from Peterson wins out.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Von Miller

Feb. 24th update: I’m not buying the Newton to Buffalo rumors, though I guess anything is possible considering they took Spiller last year. The Bills I think will look DE/OLB/CB before considering Newton. I like Dareus more than most and say he is probably the best fit for a 3-4 team.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection DE/DT Marcell Dareus

Mar. 6th update: I think this is maybe a little high, but the Bills could use a CB upgrade and Peterson looks like a star.

4. Cincinnati Bengals: QB Cam Newton, Auburn-

While wide receiver could be the pick, or DE with Bowers on the board, I’m thinking the Bengals bite the bullet and grab Newton. Newton’s workout was a start, and if he follows it up with a big combine and pro day he will likely be picked in the top 5. If the Bengals can’t convince Palmer to come back and play, they will look for his replacement. Personally, I think that this is far too high for Newton, but some team will pull the trigger on him. It will be tough to pass up A.J. Green, but it could end up happening with Newton on the board.

Feb. 1st update: Yes quarterback could be an issue if Palmer follows through with his trade demands, but I don’t think there is anyone worth taking at this spot.

pick change: Feb. 1st selection WR A.J. Green

Feb. 24th update: I still see Newton as the fit in Cincinnati, although personally I think it is far too early for Newton.

Mar. 2nd update: Newton isn’t a top 10 quarterback, but I see the Bengals over drafting him. I really believe Palmer is done in Cincinnati, and Newton will be his eventual replacement.

Mar. 6th update: If there is one top 5 team that would pick Newton it has to be the Bengals. They need to move on from Palmer and they don’t mind taking a risk on guys.

5. Arizona Cardinals: OLB Von Miller, Texas A&M-

While a lot of people have the Cardinals taking a quarterback in the first round, I don’t think that is the direction they will look to go. I see Arizona looking to add a more veteran option and maybe drafting a QB in the mid-rounds. The Cardinals biggest need after quarterback is a pass rusher, and that is one need they can fill this April. With Miller on the board, the Cards should be running up to Commissioner Goodell to turn their card in. Miller will make the Arizona’s defense vastly superior.

pick change: Jan. 25 Previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

Feb. 24th update: Miller will need to have a big combine to secure this top 5 spot, but I believe that he will, and the Cards will be quite happy with their selection.

Mar. 2nd update: Miller looked very good at the combine, and while he was a little stiff in the hips he will spend most of his time in opponents backfields, so I don’t see that turning off the Cardinals.

Mar. 6th update: Some will push for the Cards to add a QB, but I just don’t see that happening. Miller is an elite talent and barring an injury should be the Cards pick.

6. Cleveland Browns: WR A.J. Green, Georgia-

The Browns have two major needs (WR and DE) and either one could make sense for this pick. I have previously linked them to both a receiver and defensive end, but now I believe they will look receiver first. Although I don’t normally advocate receivers over more important positions, like the defensive line, it is hard to argue against Green. Green has the skill set and potential to be the next elite receiver in this league. Given the Browns lack of a quality wide receiver, Green makes a lot of sense for them. Although, they could still look at DE with a guy like Robert Quinn or Aldon Smith, I think Green is too good to pass up.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection WR Julio Jones

Feb. 17th update: There is a chance Bowers could be off the board, but I still am pretty strong on this pick. He is the perfect fit for the 4-3 and is a huge need for the Browns. A.J. Green is a very real option for the Browns here, and I could move him back up dependent on his combine.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection DE De’Quan Bowers

Mar. 2nd update: With Julio Jones’ performance at the combine he could be fighting Green to be the first receiver selected. I think Green still is the top choice and will end up being the Brown’s choice.

Mar. 6th update: I still like Green more than Jones and feel he is the perfect weapon for the Browns to help develop Colt McCoy.

7. San Francisco 49ers: QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri-

I’ve had the 49ers taking a quarterback for awhile, but we could be looking at an extended lockout that could make it difficult to land an established veteran. If that is the case the 49ers could very well look at Gabbert. Gabbert isn’t totally NFL ready, but he is fairly close, and he isn’t likely to be a complete bust. Given the talent on defense, San Francisco, could hope to forgo, adding an elite corner.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection, QB Blaine Gabbert

Feb. 17th update: I could see the 49ers look long and hard at both Gabbert and Robert Quinn with this pick, but right now I can’t see them not taking Peterson, who is a steal at 7 and a perfect playmaker.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection CB Prince Amukamara

Mar. 6th update: Gabbert is a good pick for the 49ers and can help begin the revival of that franchise. I think he will need a little time, but he should be a quick study under Harbaugh.

8. Tennessee Titans: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn-

The Titans have been searching for an inside pass rusher for a couple years now, and now they finally have one in Nick Fairley. Fairley is a top 5 talent, but one that could slip since he isn’t as good of a fit in the 3-4. Fairley will be a big boost to the Titans pass rush, that could be hurting from the potential loss of Jason Babin. Tennessee needs a disruptor along their defensive line and that fits Fairley perfectly.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE De’Quan Bowers

Feb. 17th update: It is really hard to say what direction the Titans go, but Gabbert has got to be on their short list. I don’t think he is a great quarterback prospect, but I do like the upside.

Feb. 24th update: I really don’t love this pick for the Titans, but it is hard not to go with it. They desperately need a quarterback, and at least have some talent around him on offense.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection: QB Blaine Gabbert

pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection: WR Julio Jones

9. Dallas Cowboys: CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska-

The Cowboys have many needs, but I see them going hard after a corner back in this draft. I think Amukamara is the best CB, in this class and an absolute steal for them at this pick. Personally I think Amukamara is the best corner in this draft and will automatically revitalize their secondary.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection, OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection, DE Marcel Dareus

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection, OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection, CB Patrick Peterson

Mar. 6th update: When you have Hakeem Nicks, and DeSean Jackson in your division you need to find a way to matchup. Even Rex Grossman threw for 400 yards against this Cowboys secondary, so CB is definitely a need.

10. Washington Redskins: OLB/ DE Aldon Smith, Missouri-

While a lot of people will try to ‘mock’ the Redskins a quarterback, that is not the direction this team should be going in. I could also see the Redskins as a prime team to trade back, given their vast needs and small number of picks, but I’m not predicting trades in this mock. In this version of the draft, I have A.J. Green available, which I know a number of fans would jump at, but that too is the wrong choice. The Redskins need to fix their offensive line, and their front 7 on defense, to become a contender. Until then it doesn’t matter who they have at receiver, since the quarterback will never get the ball to him.

I’ve had a 5 technique defensive end mocked here the last two weeks, but I’m going to change my tune a little and go with Aldon Smith. Smith will complement Orakpo on the other side and give the Redskins an incredible pass rush tandem. While defensive end is a priority it is such a deep draft that you can get a really good one in the 2nd round. I think Robert Quinn will get some looks here as well, but Smith might be a better fit.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE Marcell Dareus

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection DE Cam Jordan

Feb. 24th update: The more I see of Smith the more I love him, I think he is going to be a dominate pass rusher at the next level.

Mar. 2nd update: I thought Smith had a great combine and really began to separate himself for me.

Mar. 6th update: I know I’m a lot higher on Smith than most, but I think 3 years from now when you look back at this draft he will end up being a top 10 player.

11. Houston Texans: DE Cam Jordan, California-

Houston will be in the midst of transitioning to a 3-4 defense, and with no corner back to take they should focus this pick on grabbing a front 7 player. While they could go for a rush linebacker, I think Robert Quinn isn’t the best option. Quinn could be better suited as a 4-3 end. Although they could make due with Quinn, I believe there is a better player available in Cam Jordan at defensive end. Jordan, for a 3-4 end, should still generate a good bit of pressure, and be a disruptive force in the backfield. Houston needs to add the best 3-4 player they can, and right now that seems like Cam Jordan.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Von Miller

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Aldon Smith

Feb. 24th update: The Texans could look to move up or down in this draft, but adding an elite pass rusher is paramount as they make the 3-4 switch.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

Mar. 6th update: Cam Jordan is a great fit for the Texans and upgrading that line with 3-4 players is key. A pass rusher is possible, but Jordan is too good to pass up.

12. Minnesota Vikings: WR Julio Jones, Alabama-

While I do think that offensive line and defensive line (along with quarterback) are bigger needs I don’t think the Vikings will let Julio Jones slip by them. Sidney Rice is probably going to leave as a free agent, and the Vikings have little in the way of receiving depth behind, Percy Harvin. If Jones is here I think they will take him.

While I like Jones overall and think he is a top half of the first round talent. I do feel the hype factor is raising his stock. Despite playing on one of the best balanced teams in college football, Jones has a lot of bad games out there. Between the inconsistency and dropped balls I think he is more of a risk. That being said someone will take him top 15 and the Vikings could make a lot of sense.

Feb. 1st update: I realize there are some Vince Young to the Vikings rumors, but I still see Newton as the pick here until that happens.

pick change: Feb. 1st pevious selection QB Cam Newton

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection WR A.J. Green

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection WR Jon Baldwin

pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection DE Da’Quan Bowers

13. Detroit Lions: OT Tyron Smith, USC-

I know corner and linebacker are need spots, but they aren’t anything compared to Detroit’s need at left tackle. What the Lions have done in terms of protecting (or not protecting) Matt Stafford is flat out insane. You spend $60 million on a guy and you put him in a situation where he can’t succeed and needs to run for his life. The Lions have to fix that this offseason and grabbing Smith would be a smart move. In addition to the pain the offensive line has caused their quarterbacks, the Lions running game hasn’t fared much better. Their backs have one of the worst yards per carry in the league, and can never pick up the tough yards. I know defense wins championships, but Smith is a top notch talent and can protect Stafford for the next decade.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

Mar. 2nd update: Smith didn’t do the workouts, but he had an impressive combine nonetheless. Just by weighing in over 300 lbs, he showed that he is a top 15 talent. He will make Matt Stafford a very happy quarterback, and Lions fans should be thrilled that their offensive line is improving.

Mar. 6th update: Smith is still the top tackle on the board and his presence will allow Backus (a better run blocker) kick over to the RT spot, strengthening their line in two areas.

14. St. Louis Rams: WR Jon Baldwin, Pittsburgh-

The Rams need to walk away from this draft with a frontline receiver, which means they need to address this position in the first round. Now normally I would hate the idea of 3 receivers in the top 15, but it is hard to argue the talent of these three guys. Baldwin probably got passed up by Jones, but you really can’t blame Baldwin. He had a fantastic Combine in his own right and should be cemented into first round pick status. The Rams will be thrilled to land one of the top three receivers, though with the way their stock is rising, they might have to trade up to do so.

Feb 1st update: This pick will be either Baldwin or Jones unless the Rams grab a couple big receivers in free agency. They have to add weapons for Bradford and I don’t see them changing course.

Feb. 17th update: I think Baldwin is going to really kill it at the combine and pro day, which will cement this pick. I think there is a case to be made that he is even better than A.J. Green, but I’m guessing Green’s hype wins out.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection WR Jon Baldwin

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection WR Julio Jones

Mar. 6th update: I know some fans don’t like Baldwin too much, but don’t buy the hype, this guy is a stud and just as deserving to go top 15 as Julio Jones. Yes they could go DE or DT here, but I’m a big believer in Baldwin and think he will be the best of the 3 receivers.

15. Miami Dolphins: RB Mark Ingram, Alabama-

I’ve had Ryan Kerrigan here for a couple of weeks now, but I have to change this to running back and Mark Ingram. I do think the Dolphins need another rush linebacker, it isn’t nearly as pressing of a need. Miami right now doesn’t have anyone capable of significant playing time on their running back depth chart. That means the need someone they know can start, not someone who might be able to start, like a late round pick. If the Dolphins had a 2nd rounder, I’d still maybe hold off. But not having a pick until the 3rd round, puts Ingram right here. I’m not a huge Ingram fan, and would say this is a good 10 spots too high, but he does fill a primary need for the Dolphins.

Feb. 1st update: Still not buying a quarterback here or a running back. If for some reason Gabbert falls I could see him being taken, but no way Mallett or Locker get picked here. Ingram is a nice back, but not top 15 worthy. Dolphins should stay the course and strengthen that defense.

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Ryan Kerrigan

Feb. 24th update: I don’t love this Ingram pick, but until the Dolphins do something in their backfield it is hard for me to ignore the position.

Mar. 2nd update: Ingram had a good combine, but I think he needed to show a little more to be a top 15 pick. Right now I’m keeping this pick, but Miami might be better served trading back or filling their need via free agency.

Mar. 6th update: I want to see more out of Ingram to say he is top 15 worthy, but it is such a need for Miami I can’t pass it up.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars: DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa:

Clayborn was once thought to be a top 10 pick, but slipped some due to a poor senior campaign. Clayborn’s senior numbers weren’t entirely his fault as teams routinely double teamed him, and ran plays away from the powerful defensive end. Clayborn isn’t a dominate pass rusher, but he has the skills to get between 7-10 sacks a season. Clayborn will help continue to boost a Jacksonville pass rush that let them down when it mattered the most.

Feb. 1st update: Clayborn could be slipping and I nearly had him fall into the 20′s, but still have enough confidence to keep him here. Not participating in the Senior Bowl didn’t help his stock, and at this point unless he has an incredible combine I think the best he can hope for is being taken right here. The Jags could look corner or safety, but my guess is they stay with a lineman.

Feb. 17th update: I still like Clayborn to the Jags, though a guy like Kerrigan could be in the mix as well. Cam Jordan is guy who is falling, but really shouldn’t. He fits better inside on a 4-3, but the Jags could find a place for him. I think Clayborn has the inside edge, and is still a good fit here.

Feb. 24th update: Clayborn fits with the Jags and I think he is their number one target.

Mar. 2nd update: I like Clayborn maybe more than most, but I thought he looked pretty good at the Combine. I think the Jags will be in the market for a DE, and right now Clayborn is at the top of my list.

Mar. 6th update: Clayborn makes a lot of sense at this pick and while there are a couple of other respectable options I really think this is the way they go.

Round 1 Picks 17-32
Round 2
Round 3
Round 4
NFL Draft Blog

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1. Carolina Panthers: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn-

With no Andrew Luck in the mix the Panthers, will go to plan B, which is to choose from one of the elite defensive players in the draft or wide receiver A.J. Green. There might be a big push for the Panthers to go for Green, given their need for a play making receiver (especially to help in the development of Jimmy Claussen), but I think that would be a big mistake. The Panthers have spent a number of draft picks on  receivers the last few years, and while Green is better than all of them, that is just too many resources to put into one position, especially when they have so many other holes. The other reason why Green doesn’t make sense is that receivers just aren’t worth the high draft pick when you have so many other needs. As good as Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald are they weren’t enough to keep their teams from having losing records. The Panthers need a bigger impact player.

While the Panthers could go for one of the elite corners or a defensive end, those aren’t nearly as big of a need as defensive tackle. Fairley is an elite player, and fills a major need for the Panthers. Adding Fairley to an already impressive defensive line (assuming they resign Johnson), would jump start the Panthers rebuilding efforts big time. Now with not franchising Johnson they could very well lose him, but Fairley is still a slightly better fit than Bowers for me.

Feb. 1st update: Still think Fairley is the pick here, combine, workouts and background work will all be crucial. The reports about his attitude are troubling, but not sold yet that it changes anything.

Feb. 17th update: No change at the top Fairley is still the best fit for the Panthers.

Feb. 24th update: Bowers is gaining some steam, especially if they lose Johnson. But Fairley is still the best fit for the Panthers.

Mar. 2nd update: It wasn’t the greatest combine for Fairley, but I hardly think it was the worst. Dareus might be moving up, but DT is a huge need and Fairley still has the best game tape.

2. Denver Broncos: DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama-

With the Broncos officially resigning Champ Bailey, I think corner back slides a few notches down their needs list. The Broncos desperately need a defensive tackle, and after Dareus’ big combine performance, I think the Broncos will be willing to pull the trigger. They still have needs at CB and DE, but Dareus fills their biggest need and he looks to be an elite defensive tackle.

Feb. 1st update: Still think CB is the pick here and believe that Amukamara is that guy.

Feb. 17th update: Still like Prince over Peterson, but Peterson is closing the gap for me. Also think Denver could be the type of team that prefers Peterson. I keep Prince up here for now, but it is getting close.

pick change: previous selection Feb. 17th CB Prince Amukamara

pick change: previous selection Feb. 24th DE Da’Quan Bowers

3. Buffalo Bills: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU-

The Bills could go any number of ways, but I’m guessing they focus on the defensive side of the ball, which is the strength of this draft. With Fairley and Dareus off the board I think they might target LSU CB Patrick Peterson. Peterson is a playmaker, and the Bills are sorely lacking that on defense. Corner back isn’t a major need, but the Bills face some good receivers and quarterbacks in their division and they might want to matchup. Von Miller makes a lot of sense here as well, but I’m guessing the hype from Peterson wins out.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Von Miller

Feb. 24th update: I’m not buying the Newton to Buffalo rumors, though I guess anything is possible considering they took Spiller last year. The Bills I think will look DE/OLB/CB before considering Newton. I like Dareus more than most and say he is probably the best fit for a 3-4 team.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection DE/DT Marcell Dareus

4. Cincinnati Bengals: QB Cam Newton, Auburn-

While wide receiver could be the pick, or DE with Bowers on the board, I’m thinking the Bengals bite the bullet and grab Newton. Newton’s workout was a start, and if he follows it up with a big combine and pro day he will likely be picked in the top 5. If the Bengals can’t convince Palmer to come back and play, they will look for his replacement. Personally, I think that this is far too high for Newton, but some team will pull the trigger on him. It will be tough to pass up A.J. Green, but it could end up happening with Newton on the board.

Feb. 1st update: Yes quarterback could be an issue if Palmer follows through with his trade demands, but I don’t think there is anyone worth taking at this spot.

pick change: Feb. 1st selection WR A.J. Green

Feb. 24th update: I still see Newton as the fit in Cincinnati, although personally I think it is far too early for Newton.

Mar. 2nd update: Newton isn’t a top 10 quarterback, but I see the Bengals over drafting him. I really believe Palmer is done in Cincinnati, and Newton will be his eventual replacement.

5. Arizona Cardinals: OLB Von Miller, Texas A&M-

While a lot of people have the Cardinals taking a quarterback in the first round, I don’t think that is the direction they will look to go. I see Arizona looking to add a more veteran option and maybe drafting a QB in the mid-rounds. The Cardinals biggest need after quarterback is a pass rusher, and that is one need they can fill this April. With Miller on the board, the Cards should be running up to Commissioner Goodell to turn their card in. Miller will make the Arizona’s defense vastly superior.

pick change: Jan. 25 Previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

Feb. 24th update: Miller will need to have a big combine to secure this top 5 spot, but I believe that he will, and the Cards will be quite happy with their selection.

Mar. 2nd update: Miller looked very good at the combine, and while he was a little stiff in the hips he will spend most of his time in opponents backfields, so I don’t see that turning off the Cardinals.

6. Cleveland Browns: WR A.J. Green, Georgia-

The Browns have two major needs (WR and DE) and either one could make sense for this pick. I have previously linked them to both a receiver and defensive end, but now I believe they will look receiver first. Although I don’t normally advocate receivers over more important positions, like the defensive line, it is hard to argue against Green. Green has the skill set and potential to be the next elite receiver in this league. Given the Browns lack of a quality wide receiver, Green makes a lot of sense for them. Although, they could still look at DE with a guy like Robert Quinn or Aldon Smith, I think Green is too good to pass up.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection WR Julio Jones

Feb. 17th update: There is a chance Bowers could be off the board, but I still am pretty strong on this pick. He is the perfect fit for the 4-3 and is a huge need for the Browns. A.J. Green is a very real option for the Browns here, and I could move him back up dependent on his combine.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection DE De’Quan Bowers

Mar. 2nd update: With Julio Jones’ performance at the combine he could be fighting Green to be the first receiver selected. I think Green still is the top choice and will end up being the Brown’s choice.

7. San Francisco 49ers: QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri-

I’ve had the 49ers taking a quarterback for awhile, but we could be looking at an extended lockout that could make it difficult to land an established veteran. If that is the case the 49ers could very well look at Gabbert. Gabbert isn’t totally NFL ready, but he is fairly close, and he isn’t likely to be a complete bust. Given the talent on defense, San Francisco, could hope to forgo, adding an elite corner.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection, QB Blaine Gabbert

Feb. 17th update: I could see the 49ers look long and hard at both Gabbert and Robert Quinn with this pick, but right now I can’t see them not taking Peterson, who is a steal at 7 and a perfect playmaker.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection CB Prince Amukamara

8. Tennessee Titans: WR Julio Jones, Alabama-

I think this is a little high for Jones, but would say there is a real chance he gets selected here. He has a fantastic combine and his stock is skyrocketing right now. While the Titans have Kenny Britt, he hasn’t been the model teammate so Tennessee could look at this as a value pick. Also, despite having Britt last year, the Titans passing game couldn’t get going. Tennessee could look to add some punch to their receiving corps. Personally I’m not a fan of overvaluing receivers, but it does happen and I could see it happening here.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE De’Quan Bowers

Feb. 17th update: It is really hard to say what direction the Titans go, but Gabbert has got to be on their short list. I don’t think he is a great quarterback prospect, but I do like the upside.

Feb. 24th update: I really don’t love this pick for the Titans, but it is hard not to go with it. They desperately need a quarterback, and at least have some talent around him on offense.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection: QB Blaine Gabbert

9. Dallas Cowboys: CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska-

The Cowboys have many needs, but I see them going hard after a corner back in this draft. I think Amukamara is the best CB, in this class and an absolute steal for them at this pick.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection, OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection, DE Marcel Dareus

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection, OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection, CB Patrick Peterson

10. Washington Redskins: OLB/ DE Aldon Smith, Missouri-

While a lot of people will try to ‘mock’ the Redskins a quarterback, that is not the direction this team should be going in. I could also see the Redskins as a prime team to trade back, given their vast needs and small number of picks, but I’m not predicting trades in this mock. In this version of the draft, I have A.J. Green available, which I know a number of fans would jump at, but that too is the wrong choice. The Redskins need to fix their offensive line, and their front 7 on defense, to become a contender. Until then it doesn’t matter who they have at receiver, since the quarterback will never get the ball to him.

I’ve had a 5 technique defensive end mocked here the last two weeks, but I’m going to change my tune a little and go with Aldon Smith. Smith will complement Orakpo on the other side and give the Redskins an incredible pass rush tandem. While defensive end is a priority it is such a deep draft that you can get a really good one in the 2nd round. I think Robert Quinn will get some looks here as well, but Smith might be a better fit.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE Marcell Dareus

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection DE Cam Jordan

Feb. 24th update: The more I see of Smith the more I love him, I think he is going to be a dominate pass rusher at the next level.

Mar. 2nd update: I thought Smith had a great combine and really began to separate himself for me.

11. Houston Texans: DE Cam Jordan, California-

Houston will be in the midst of transitioning to a 3-4 defense, and with no corner back to take they should focus this pick on grabbing a front 7 player. While they could go for a rush linebacker, I think Robert Quinn isn’t the best option. Quinn could be better suited as a 4-3 end. Although they could make due with Quinn, I believe there is a better player available in Cam Jordan at defensive end. Jordan, for a 3-4 end, should still generate a good bit of pressure, and be a disruptive force in the backfield. Houston needs to add the best 3-4 player they can, and right now that seems like Cam Jordan.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Von Miller

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Aldon Smith

Feb. 24th update: The Texans could look to move up or down in this draft, but adding an elite pass rusher is paramount as they make the 3-4 switch.

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

12. Minnesota Vikings: DE Da’Quan Bowers, Clemson-

Although the Vikings have a number of needs on offense I see them looking defense with this pick. They are likely to lose Ray Edwards in free agency and could use a bookend pass rusher to Jared Allen. Bowers didn’t do a full workout at the combine, but he did show up at a good weight and size. While I think he is a top 5 talent, I don’t like the way he fits into 3-4 teams, which means he could fall out of the top 10. I think Minnesota is a great fit for him and he can be an impact player.

Feb. 1st update: I realize there are some Vince Young to the Vikings rumors, but I still see Newton as the pick here until that happens.

pick change: Feb. 1st pevious selection QB Cam Newton

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection WR A.J. Green

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection WR Jon Baldwin

13. Detroit Lions: OT Tyron Smith, USC-

I know corner and linebacker are need spots, but they aren’t anything compared to Detroit’s need at left tackle. What the Lions have done in terms of protecting (or not protecting) Matt Stafford is flat out insane. You spend $60 million on a guy and you put him in a situation where he can’t succeed and needs to run for his life. The Lions have to fix that this offseason and grabbing Smith would be a smart move. In addition to the pain the offensive line has caused their quarterbacks, the Lions running game hasn’t fared much better. Their backs have one of the worst yards per carry in the league, and can never pick up the tough yards. I know defense wins championships, but Smith is a top notch talent and can protect Stafford for the next decade.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

Mar. 2nd update: Smith didn’t do the workouts, but he had an impressive combine nonetheless. Just by weighing in over 300 lbs, he showed that he is a top 15 talent. He will make Matt Stafford a very happy quarterback, and Lions fans should be thrilled that their offensive line is improving.

14. St. Louis Rams: WR Jon Baldwin, Pittsburgh-

The Rams need to walk away from this draft with a frontline receiver, which means they need to address this position in the first round. Now normally I would hate the idea of 3 receivers in the top 15, but it is hard to argue the talent of these three guys. Baldwin probably got passed up by Jones, but you really can’t blame Baldwin. He had a fantastic Combine in his own right and should be cemented into first round pick status. The Rams will be thrilled to land one of the top three receivers, though with the way their stock is rising, they might have to trade up to do so.

Feb 1st update: This pick will be either Baldwin or Jones unless the Rams grab a couple big receivers in free agency. They have to add weapons for Bradford and I don’t see them changing course.

Feb. 17th update: I think Baldwin is going to really kill it at the combine and pro day, which will cement this pick. I think there is a case to be made that he is even better than A.J. Green, but I’m guessing Green’s hype wins out.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection WR Jon Baldwin

pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection WR Julio Jones

15. Miami Dolphins: RB Mark Ingram, Alabama-

I’ve had Ryan Kerrigan here for a couple of weeks now, but I have to change this to running back and Mark Ingram. I do think the Dolphins need another rush linebacker, it isn’t nearly as pressing of a need. Miami right now doesn’t have anyone capable of significant playing time on their running back depth chart. That means the need someone they know can start, not someone who might be able to start, like a late round pick. If the Dolphins had a 2nd rounder, I’d still maybe hold off. But not having a pick until the 3rd round, puts Ingram right here. I’m not a huge Ingram fan, and would say this is a good 10 spots too high, but he does fill a primary need for the Dolphins.

Feb. 1st update: Still not buying a quarterback here or a running back. If for some reason Gabbert falls I could see him being taken, but no way Mallett or Locker get picked here. Ingram is a nice back, but not top 15 worthy. Dolphins should stay the course and strengthen that defense.

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Ryan Kerrigan

Feb. 24th update: I don’t love this Ingram pick, but until the Dolphins do something in their backfield it is hard for me to ignore the position.

Mar. 2nd update: Ingram had a good combine, but I think he needed to show a little more to be a top 15 pick. Right now I’m keeping this pick, but Miami might be better served trading back or filling their need via free agency.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars: DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa:

Clayborn was once thought to be a top 10 pick, but slipped some due to a poor senior campaign. Clayborn’s senior numbers weren’t entirely his fault as teams routinely double teamed him, and ran plays away from the powerful defensive end. Clayborn isn’t a dominate pass rusher, but he has the skills to get between 7-10 sacks a season. Clayborn will help continue to boost a Jacksonville pass rush that let them down when it mattered the most.

Feb. 1st update: Clayborn could be slipping and I nearly had him fall into the 20′s, but still have enough confidence to keep him here. Not participating in the Senior Bowl didn’t help his stock, and at this point unless he has an incredible combine I think the best he can hope for is being taken right here. The Jags could look corner or safety, but my guess is they stay with a lineman.

Feb. 17th update: I still like Clayborn to the Jags, though a guy like Kerrigan could be in the mix as well. Cam Jordan is guy who is falling, but really shouldn’t. He fits better inside on a 4-3, but the Jags could find a place for him. I think Clayborn has the inside edge, and is still a good fit here.

Feb. 24th update: Clayborn fits with the Jags and I think he is their number one target.

Mar. 2nd update: I like Clayborn maybe more than most, but I thought he looked pretty good at the Combine. I think the Jags will be in the market for a DE, and right now Clayborn is at the top of my list.

Round 1 Picks 17-32
NFL Draft Blog

1. Carolina Panthers: DT Nick Fairley, Auburn-

With no Andrew Luck in the mix the Panthers, will go to plan B, which is to choose from one of the elite defensive players in the draft or wide receiver A.J. Green. There might be a big push for the Panthers to go for Green, given their need for a play making receiver (especially to help in the development of Jimmy Claussen), but I think that would be a big mistake. The Panthers have spent a number of draft picks on  receivers the last few years, and while Green is better than all of them, that is just too many resources to put into one position, especially when they have so many other holes. The other reason why Green doesn’t make sense is that receivers just aren’t worth the high draft pick when you have so many other needs. As good as Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald are they weren’t enough to keep their teams from having losing records. The Panthers need a bigger impact player.

While the Panthers could go for one of the elite corners or a defensive end, those aren’t nearly as big of a need as defensive tackle. Fairley is an elite player, and fills a major need for the Panthers. Adding Fairley to an already impressive defensive line (assuming they resign Johnson), would jump start the Panthers rebuilding efforts big time. Now with not franchising Johnson they could very well lose him, but Fairley is still a slightly better fit than Bowers for me.

Feb. 1st update: Still think Fairley is the pick here, combine, workouts and background work will all be crucial. The reports about his attitude are troubling, but not sold yet that it changes anything.

Feb. 17th update: No change at the top Fairley is still the best fit for the Panthers.

Feb. 24th update: Bowers is gaining some steam, especially if they lose Johnson. But Fairley is still the best fit for the Panthers.

2. Denver Broncos: DE Da’Quan Bowers, Clemson-

With the Broncos officially resigning Champ Bailey, I think corner back slides a few notches down their needs list. Although the Broncos covet, Fairley and could ideally go with the next best defensive tackle, I think they go with the best player available, in Bowers. Denver needs to revamp that entire defense, but in particular the defensive line. Elvis Dumervil will be at one end, but beyond that the Broncos have nothing for the other end spot. Bowers will be an instant fix, and should become a dominate force.

Feb. 1st update: Still think CB is the pick here and believe that Amukamara is that guy.

Feb. 17th update: Still like Prince over Peterson, but Peterson is closing the gap for me. Also think Denver could be the type of team that prefers Peterson. I keep Prince up here for now, but it is getting close.

pick change: previous selection Feb. 17th CB Prince Amukamara

3. Buffalo Bills: DE/DT Marcell Dareus, Alabama-

The Bills could go a number of different directions, but with the recent release of Marcus Stroud, the Bills need some help up front. I know they were impressed with Alex Carrington, but Dareus is at a different level. Putting him next to Kyle Williams should shut down the run. Dareus also projects to give a good amount of pressure from his end spot. I still think OLB Von Miller is high on their list, but to run a 3-4, you need to have linemen who can hold at the point of attack, and that is Dareus.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Von Miller

Feb. 24th update: I’m not buying the Newton to Buffalo rumors, though I guess anything is possible considering they took Spiller last year. The Bills I think will look DE/OLB/CB before considering Newton. I like Dareus more than most and say he is probably the best fit for a 3-4 team.

4. Cincinnati Bengals: QB Cam Newton, Auburn-

While wide receiver could be the pick, or DE with Bowers on the board, I’m thinking the Bengals bite the bullet and grab Newton. Newton’s workout was a start, and if he follows it up with a big combine and pro day he will likely be picked in the top 5. If the Bengals can’t convince Palmer to come back and play, they will look for his replacement. Personally, I think that this is far too high for Newton, but some team will pull the trigger on him. It will be tough to pass up A.J. Green, but it could end up happening with Newton on the board.

Feb. 1st update: Yes quarterback could be an issue if Palmer follows through with his trade demands, but I don’t think there is anyone worth taking at this spot.

pick change: Feb. 1st selection WR A.J. Green

Feb. 24th update: I still see Newton as the fit in Cincinnati, although personally I think it is far too early for Newton.

5. Arizona Cardinals: OLB Von Miller, Texas A&M-

While a lot of people have the Cardinals taking a quarterback in the first round, I don’t think that is the direction they will look to go. I see Arizona looking to add a more veteran option and maybe drafting a QB in the mid-rounds. The Cardinals biggest need after quarterback is a pass rusher, and that is one need they can fill this April. With Miller on the board, the Cards should be running up to Commissioner Goodell to turn their card in. Miller will make the Arizona’s defense vastly superior.

pick change: Jan. 25 Previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Robert Quinn

Feb. 24th update: Miller will need to have a big combine to secure this top 5 spot, but I believe that he will, and the Cards will be quite happy with their selection.

6. Cleveland Browns: WR A.J. Green, Georgia-

The Browns have two major needs (WR and DE) and either one could make sense for this pick. I have previously linked them to both a receiver and defensive end, but now I believe they will look receiver first. Although I don’t normally advocate receivers over more important positions, like the defensive line, it is hard to argue against Green. Green has the skill set and potential to be the next elite receiver in this league. Given the Browns lack of a quality wide receiver, Green makes a lot of sense for them. Although, they could still look at DE with a guy like Robert Quinn or Aldon Smith, I think Green is too good to pass up.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection WR Julio Jones

Feb. 17th update: There is a chance Bowers could be off the board, but I still am pretty strong on this pick. He is the perfect fit for the 4-3 and is a huge need for the Browns. A.J. Green is a very real option for the Browns here, and I could move him back up dependent on his combine.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection DE De’Quan Bowers

7. San Francisco 49ers: CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska-

While the 49ers could be tempted by a quarterback, I think corner back makes too much sense for them to pass up. Their secondary got pretty torched last season, and adding a play-maker like Amukamara should help fix that problem immediately.  The 49ers could win the NFC West next year with just a few changes so adding guys who can help right away, compared to a developmental QB makes sense. With a stud corner in the fold that defense should finally be as good as advertised. Quarterback is still and issue, and one that will likely be addressed in free agency (or via a trade) and a mid-round selection. I’m extremely close between which corner is better Peterson or Amukamara, but give the slight edge to Amukamara.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection, QB Blaine Gabbert

Feb. 17th update: I could see the 49ers look long and hard at both Gabbert and Robert Quinn with this pick, but right now I can’t see them not taking Peterson, who is a steal at 7 and a perfect playmaker.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection CB Patrick Peterson

8. Tennessee Titans: QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri-

The Titans at this point could go in any direction, but it will be hard to gauge until they have a new coach in place. Despite the coaching change it looks as though Vince Young is on his way out. While that would have happened with Jeff Fisher at the helm, he was more likely to look for a more veteran fix (McNabb, Kolb, etc.), then go the rookie route. With a new staff in place it might be time to rebuild in Tennessee, making Gabbert a smart pick. While I don’t know if I’d label him a ‘franchise quarterback’, he does have the best combination of potential, talent, and likelihood of reaching it. Gabbert probably should start until at least mid-season, but he gives hope as a quarterback who can take pressure off Chris Johnson.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE De’Quan Bowers

Feb. 17th update: It is really hard to say what direction the Titans go, but Gabbert has got to be on their short list. I don’t think he is a great quarterback prospect, but I do like the upside.

Feb. 24th update: I really don’t love this pick for the Titans, but it is hard not to go with it. They desperately need a quarterback, and at least have some talent around him on offense.

9. Dallas Cowboys: CB Patrick Peterson, LSU-

I know the Cowboys need an offensive lineman, and I think Tyson Smith is perfect for them, but there is no way they’d pass up Peterson (or Amukamara) if available. Their secondary was flat out awful last season, and they need a playmaker to take over. When you play the Eagles and Giants receiving corps 4 times a year, you have to match-up. The Cowboys do have serious offensive line issues and will need to fix that in free agency/2nd round of the draft.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection, OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection, DE Marcel Dareus

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection, OT Tyron Smith

10. Washington Redskins: OLB/ DE Aldon Smith, Missouri-

While a lot of people will try to ‘mock’ the Redskins a quarterback, that is not the direction this team should be going in. I could also see the Redskins as a prime team to trade back, given their vast needs and small number of picks, but I’m not predicting trades in this mock. In this version of the draft, I have A.J. Green available, which I know a number of fans would jump at, but that too is the wrong choice. The Redskins need to fix their offensive line, and their front 7 on defense, to become a contender. Until then it doesn’t matter who they have at receiver, since the quarterback will never get the ball to him.

I’ve had a 5 technique defensive end mocked here the last two weeks, but I’m going to change my tune a little and go with Aldon Smith. Smith will complement Orakpo on the other side and give the Redskins an incredible pass rush tandem. While defensive end is a priority it is such a deep draft that you can get a really good one in the 2nd round. I think Robert Quinn will get some looks here as well, but Smith might be a better fit.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE Marcell Dareus

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection DE Cam Jordan

Feb. 24th update: The more I see of Smith the more I love him, I think he is going to be a dominate pass rusher at the next level.

11. Houston Texans: OLB/DE Robert Quinn, North Carolina-

Houston will be in the midst of transitioning to a 3-4 defense, and with no corner back to take should focus this pick on grabbing a rush linebacker. I’ll keep with the trend of my previous picks and give the Texans an elite pass rusher. I think Quinn absolutely dominated two years ago, and should help cause havoc in Wade Phillips new defense.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Von Miller

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Aldon Smith

Feb. 24th update: The Texans could look to move up or down in this draft, but adding an elite pass rusher is paramount as they make the 3-4 switch.

12. Minnesota Vikings: WR Jon Baldwin, Pittsburgh-

While I think the Vikings will consider quarterback, there is no one at this pick worth taking. Other areas of need include both the offensive and defensive lines, but none is as pressing as wide receiver. Although the Vikings could still resign Sidney Rice, they are going to let him test the open market, and I’m guessing some other team overpays for him. The Vikings will desperately look for a receiver complement to Percy Harvin. I think Baldwin is an exceptional talent, one that has a case to be picked ahead of Green. People may scoff at this pick, and I’m not a huge fan of drafting receivers high, but it happens every year, and Baldwin is a weapon.

Feb. 1st update: I realize there are some Vince Young to the Vikings rumors, but I still see Newton as the pick here until that happens.

pick change: Feb. 1st pevious selection QB Cam Newton

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection WR A.J. Green

13. Detroit Lions: OT Tyron Smith, USC-

I know corner and linebacker are need spots, but they aren’t anything compared to Detroit’s need at left tackle. What the Lions have done in terms of protecting (or not protecting) Matt Stafford is flat out insane. You spend $60 million on a guy and you put him in a situation where he can’t succeed and needs to run for his life. The Lions have to fix that this offseason and grabbing Smith would be a smart move. In addition to the pain the offensive line has caused their quarterbacks, the Lions running game hasn’t fared much better. Their backs have one of the worst yards per carry in the league, and can never pick up the tough yards. I know defense wins championships, but Smith is a top notch talent and can protect Stafford for the next decade.

pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OT Tyron Smith

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo

14. St. Louis Rams: WR Julio Jones, Alabama-

The Rams need to walk away from this draft with a frontline receiver, which means they need to address this position in the first round. Now normally I would hate the idea of 3 receivers in the top 15, but it is hard to argue the talent of these three guys. Jones is another big play, big time receiver and will quickly become Sam Bradford’s best friend.

Feb 1st update: This pick will be either Baldwin or Jones unless the Rams grab a couple big receivers in free agency. They have to add weapons for Bradford and I don’t see them changing course.

Feb. 17th update: I think Baldwin is going to really kill it at the combine and pro day, which will cement this pick. I think there is a case to be made that he is even better than A.J. Green, but I’m guessing Green’s hype wins out.

pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection WR Jon Baldwin

15. Miami Dolphins: RB Mark Ingram, Alabama-

I’ve had Ryan Kerrigan here for a couple of weeks now, but I have to change this to running back and Mark Ingram. I do think the Dolphins need another rush linebacker, it isn’t nearly as pressing of a need. Miami right now doesn’t have anyone capable of significant playing time on their running back depth chart. That means the need someone they know can start, not someone who might be able to start, like a late round pick. If the Dolphins had a 2nd rounder, I’d still maybe hold off. But not having a pick until the 3rd round, puts Ingram right here. I’m not a huge Ingram fan, and would say this is a good 10 spots too high, but he does fill a primary need for the Dolphins.

Feb. 1st update: Still not buying a quarterback here or a running back. If for some reason Gabbert falls I could see him being taken, but no way Mallett or Locker get picked here. Ingram is a nice back, but not top 15 worthy. Dolphins should stay the course and strengthen that defense.

pick change: Feb. 1st previous selection OLB Ryan Kerrigan

Feb. 24th update: I don’t love this Ingram pick, but until the Dolphins do something in their backfield it is hard for me to ignore the position.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars: DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa:

Clayborn was once thought to be a top 10 pick, but slipped some due to a poor senior campaign. Clayborn’s senior numbers weren’t entirely his fault as teams routinely double teamed him, and ran plays away from the powerful defensive end. Clayborn isn’t a dominate pass rusher, but he has the skills to get between 7-10 sacks a season. Clayborn will help continue to boost a Jacksonville pass rush that let them down when it mattered the most.

Feb. 1st update: Clayborn could be slipping and I nearly had him fall into the 20′s, but still have enough confidence to keep him here. Not participating in the Senior Bowl didn’t help his stock, and at this point unless he has an incredible combine I think the best he can hope for is being taken right here. The Jags could look corner or safety, but my guess is they stay with a lineman.

Feb. 17th update: I still like Clayborn to the Jags, though a guy like Kerrigan could be in the mix as well. Cam Jordan is guy who is falling, but really shouldn’t. He fits better inside on a 4-3, but the Jags could find a place for him. I think Clayborn has the inside edge, and is still a good fit here.

Feb. 24th update: Clayborn fits with the Jags and I think he is their number one target.

Round 1 Picks 17-32
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