Dark Horses: Unfancied NFL Teams That Should Make the Playoffs
As we have passed the midway point of the NFL season, we can make some observations about the direction of travel for the majority of teams. For example, fans of the Dolphins, Raiders, Jaguars, Giants, and Panthers can start preparing for next season, as they are certainly not going to be in the Playoffs. On the other end of the scale, the Chiefs (obviously), Bills, and Lions will be looking to January and beyond for postseason football. We’d also stick the Ravens and Eagles on this list, barring disaster.
Yet, while the aforementioned teams know where they are going, there’s another group of teams that is arguably more interesting: those likely to make the Playoffs, yet remain unfancied in the NFL odds to win the Super Bowl. Now, we aren’t saying that these teams are going to win it all, but they are likely to ruffle a few feathers in January. And, as anything can happen in football, their dark horse candidacy should not be dismissed. Below are four teams of interest, their chances of making the Playoffs, and their latest Super Bowl LIX odds:
- Washington Commanders
Playoff chances: circa 90%
Super Bowl LIX odds: +2500
The consensus preseason was that the Commanders were not yet ready to be contenders. That may prove to be right to an extent, but the Commanders are well worth their salt this season. Jayden Daniels has been a revelation and has led a very efficient offense. Worries about the Commanders’ defense will continue, but the Commanders have what it takes to nick a Wildcard spot at the very least. Level-headed fans will probably be happy with the team gaining some Playoff experience, knowing it will stand them in good stead next season, but it’s going to be interesting to see how far they can go.
- Los Angeles Chargers
Playoff chances: circa 88%
Super Bowl LIX odds: +4000
The Chargers are the epitome of a team that should go on this list. Few people were talking about them preseason, and they still haven’t hogged the limelight this NFL season, but they find themselves in a really strong position going into the business end of the campaign. They have a handful of tough games on the horizon – the Ravens, Falcons, and Chiefs in succession – but they also have a nice run-in to finish the season, and we can see them getting to 11 or 12 wins. Their defense has been their strength, and we think they can get enough out of Justin Herbert to get them over the line.
- Atlanta Falcons
Playoff chances: circa 87%
Super Bowl LIX odds: +3000
The Falcons haven’t had a winning season since 2017, but it seems that is about to change. They look locked in to win – the admittedly poor – NFC South. There are similarities with the Commanders in that the Falcons offense looks fluid, and the defense looks shaky, but there is a growing sense of optimism around the methods of head coach Raheem Morris. The form of Kirk Cousins, too, is a reason for belief in Atlanta.
- Arizona Cardinals
Playoff chances: circa 60%
Super Bowl LIX odds: +5000
We said the teams on this list were interesting, and the Arizona Cardinals fit that bill. The Cardinals had the second-toughest schedule of anyone across the first ten games of the season but still came out of it 6-4 going into their Bye Week. They’ve still a couple of tough games left, but they have also got winnable fixtures against the Seahawks (twice), Patriots, Panthers, and Rams. The 49ers represent a clear and present danger for the Cardinals’ hopes of winning the NFC West, so the matchup between the pair on the final day of the season could be pivotal.
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