High-Risk, High-Reward: Drafting Elite QBs in Daily Fantasy

Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) can be a game of fine margins, and understanding the intricacies of drafting quarterbacks (QBs) is essential for success. Let’s dive deep into strategies for drafting elite QBs, identifying breakout candidates, and managing high-risk, high-reward picks, especially in 2-QB formats.

 

Leveraging the statistics and records from last season, we’ll explore how to navigate the complex landscape of QB drafting, focusing on elite choices, potential breakout stars, and high-risk picks that could pay off.

2-QB Draft Strategy

 

The 2-QB draft strategy stands out distinctly compared to 1-QB and even superflex strategies. In 1-QB leagues, the supply of QBs far exceeds the demand, with most leagues featuring 10 to 12 starters and fewer than 12 backups rostered. However, the dynamic shifts significantly in superflex leagues, where most teams start two QBs each week, resulting in 20 or 24 QBs in starting lineups and typically 32 QBs rostered.

 

In Superflex leagues, there’s an option to start a running back (RB), wide receiver (WR), or tight end (TE) in the superflex spot as an emergency measure. However, in 2-QB leagues, teams are mandated to start two QBs weekly, altering the supply vs. demand equation and necessitating a different draft strategy. The tight supply and high demand make drafting elite QBs even more crucial.

Finding Value in 2-QB Drafts

 

While the need for elite QBs is clear, it doesn’t mean abandoning all previous strategies. Flexibility and value hunting early in the draft remain key. However, the value presents differently in 2-QB leagues compared to 1-QB and Superflex leagues. Understanding the 3D values of QBs in each format helps precisely gauge these differences.

 

In 1-QB and 2-QB leagues, QB values vary significantly. In 2-QB leagues, elite fantasy QBs hold massive value. Rankings in 2-QB leagues often feature QBs in four of the top five spots and eight of the first eleven. This highlights the importance of securing top QBs like Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson early on.

 

Drafting Elite QBs

 

Securing an elite QB provides a significant weekly and season-long advantage. For instance, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson are consistently top performers. In 2-QB league rankings, you’ll find these QBs dominating the top spots. Hurts, Allen, Mahomes, and Jackson are all top-five picks due to their ability to deliver consistently high points.

 

Despite the high value of elite QBs, it’s not always necessary to spend your first-round pick on a QB. Players like WR CeeDee Lamb, RB Christian McCaffrey, and WR Tyreek Hill are also top-8 players in 2-QB leagues and viable first-round picks if the value aligns. The same applies to WR Justin Jefferson, who is ranked 12th.

 

Secondary QBs With Breakout Potential

 

Looking beyond the elite tier, there are QBs poised for breakout seasons. For instance, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, and Bryce Young are intriguing prospects. Stroud, ranked seventh, and Richardson, ranked ninth, could deliver significant returns if they build on their potential and performance from the previous season.

 

Second-year QBs often show significant improvement. Anthony Richardson, for example, has the potential for a standout season. Bryce Young is one of those backup QBs that could be a good late pick with a lot of upside.

 

Bryce Young’s rookie season had its challenges, but there’s optimism for his future growth. The quarterback faced numerous obstacles, including poor pass protection, limited receiving options, and a lack of explosive plays.

 

Selected as the top pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Young started 16 of 17 games. However, he struggled to surpass 200 passing yards in 11 of those games and threw for one or no touchdowns in 14 of his starts. In the one game he missed, backup Andy Dalton stepped in and threw for 361 yards and two touchdowns.

 

Despite these struggles, Young showed some promising signs. He maintained a low interception rate of 1.9 percent and developed into a capable scrambler, a skill he didn’t often utilize at Alabama.

 

At Alabama, Young was a proven winner, boasting a 23-4 record against top-tier competition in college football. His winning mentality extends back to high school, suggesting he has the resilience and talent to evolve into a quality NFL starter. Improvement may take time, but it would be surprising if he doesn’t show at least some progress in his second year.

 

FanDuel North Carolina will surely see some action on the second-year QB as he should have a better sophomore year with his rookie year behind him.

 

 

High-Risk, High-Reward Picks

 

High-risk, high-reward QBs can be game-changers if selected wisely. Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott, ranked 10th and 11th respectively, offer substantial upside but come with their own sets of risks. Evaluating these risks against potential rewards is crucial for a successful draft strategy.

 

Drafting high-risk QBs involves balancing their potential upside with their inherent risks. For instance, Joe Burrow’s high ranking reflects his ability to deliver top-tier performances. However, assessing his injury history and team dynamics is essential to make an informed decision.

Key Differences in 2-QB and Superflex Leagues

 

Superflex leagues offer more flexibility by allowing a non-QB player in the superflex spot, unlike 2-QB leagues where two QBs are mandatory. This flexibility can impact draft strategy, making understanding these nuances critical for optimal drafting.

 

In superflex leagues, drafting a second QB isn’t as urgent, given the option to start another position. However, in 2-QB leagues, securing a second reliable QB early can prevent scrambling for lower-tier options later on.

 

Optimal Draft Strategies for 2-QB Leagues

 

In 2-QB leagues, the optimal strategy often includes securing an elite QB in the first round. Following this, targeting another high-value QB in the second round can provide a strong foundation. Flexibility remains key, but the emphasis on QBs is higher.

 

One common mistake in 2-QB leagues is reaching for a second QB too early. Historically, the production difference between the 10th and 20th QB is minimal. In 2024, this flat area of the rankings appears between QB12 and QB22, making it vital to avoid overreaching.

 

Elite QB Rankings

 

Based on 2024 rankings, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson are the elite QBs to target. These players provide consistent high performance, making them invaluable in 2-QB leagues.

 

While securing an elite QB is crucial, finding value in QBs ranked slightly lower can also be beneficial. C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, and Joe Burrow offer high potential and can be excellent second-round picks if available.

 

Managing QB Supply and Demand

 

In 2-QB leagues, managing QB supply and demand is critical. With most teams starting two QBs weekly and typically 32 QBs rostered, the competition for quality QBs is fierce. Drafting strategies must account for this high demand and limited supply.

 

Strategic selection involves balancing the immediate need for QBs with the value available in other positions. Drafting a top-tier QB early while remaining flexible to grab high-value players in other positions ensures a well-rounded team.

 

Flexibility in Drafting

 

Flexibility in drafting means being prepared to adjust strategies based on how the draft unfolds. While prioritizing QBs is essential in 2-QB leagues, being open to selecting top-tier RBs, WRs, and TEs when value presents itself can strengthen the overall roster.

 

Keeping an eye on draft trends and adapting quickly is vital. If QBs are flying off the board, securing a reliable second QB becomes urgent. Conversely, if other positions offer better value, staying flexible and adjusting the draft plan can yield better results.

 

Recap of Strategies and Key Points

 

In conclusion, drafting elite QBs in DFS, particularly in 2-QB leagues, requires a keen understanding of supply vs. demand dynamics, strategic flexibility, and careful evaluation of high-risk, high-reward picks.

 

By focusing on elite QBs like Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson while remaining adaptable to value in other positions, drafters can build strong, competitive teams.

 

Additionally, identifying breakout candidates like C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, and Bryce Young, and managing risks with players like Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott, can provide an edge in DFS competitions.