EVALUATING PROBABILITIES: A KEY SKILL FOR SUCCESSFUL FOOTBALL BETTING

Betting on football is one of the easiest ways to make money in sports gambling. After all, this sport is popular and thus attracts many fans, punters, and bookies. As a result, choosing the betting sites for football is easy as you will have more than enough choices. Secondly, the sport has been around for over a century, and you can find many resources on it. And finally, it has a large community that allows you to learn more about it, get tips on how to wager, and get insights even before they are available to the rest of the world.

We look at how you can be successful in sports betting:

The Evaluation Strategy

There are two kinds of punters. The first looks at two teams and decides which will win based on their gut feelings or team rankings. The second one researches all possibilities before placing a wager. Can you guess which one makes a career out of football betting? It’s the second one!

Unlike gambling on games of chance, football betting gives you room to determine the most likely winner and your profits by considering the factors below:

1.   Past Games

One of the easiest ways to determine the team that will come out on top is to look at how they have interacted in the previous games. For example, if team A almost always beats team B, this will likely be the case. But in doing so, you must consider when the teams last played against each other.

For example, teams A and B may have played against each other five years ago when they were in the EPL. But team B was later relegated to the Championship and has just returned to the EPL. In such a case, the stats would be outdated, and you would need to rely on the other factors discussed below.

2.   Starting Lineups

Who will be in the starting eleven? Teams are often known for their different styles. Some are aggressive with their offence, while others have solid defences. But these styles only hold up if the best players are in the starting lineup. Consider the players who often bring out these elements and review whether they will be on the field. Even one player can make a big difference.

3.   Changes in Management

We all know how different managers affect teams. Not only do they affect the overall team morale, but they also come with new playing styles. So, while a team may have been an underdog, a pro manager can come in and change all that in just a few months. As such, look at whether teams have had changes in management and their trajectories following the changes. If it has favoured them, it will likely give them a leg up over their competition.

4.   Injuries

The last thing you want is for your favourite in the starting eleven to suffer an injury, which can affect your prediction. For example, if you wanted to bet on team A because of player Z and that player suffers an injury, can the rest of the team replace Z’s efforts? If you cannot back the team up because of the injury, you should avoid backing it altogether. While team efforts count for overall scores, we cannot ignore the impact of star players.

5.   Who is Home?

You may have already noticed that teams playing at home often have the advantage. They are playing on familiar grounds, have their fans around them, and want to uphold their status by not getting defeated at home. While this factor does not always have a significant impact, you can compound it with the rest when making your prediction.

6.   Current Rankings

Suppose you are betting on a game involving team A, 3rd in the rankings, and team B, 6th. Which team do you think would win? Often, people think the team at the top has the best winning chance – and this is usually true. At the same time, it depends on the date of the rankings. For example, if the teams have only played five games, team B still has time to beat team A. But if the rankings are closer to the end of the season, team A has likely forged a strategy that will keep it winning till the season closes.

7.   Motivations

Games are not the same. Some are qualifiers, while others are friendlies. So, before backing any team, consider its motivations. What does it get if it wins? For example, if a team is trying to avoid relegation, it will likely fight to beat the other team. But if the team will get relegated either way, it will probably not put up much of a fight.

8.   How About the Odds?

Team A may have odds of 1.25, while B may have 2.40. But what do these numbers mean? Odds are a measure of probability. However, with bookies, these figures also include public perception, the commission the bookie takes, and other analyses. As such, you should only use them to calculate your profit, not which team has the upper hand. E.g., if you wager 100 pounds on team A and it wins, you will get (100*1.25=125) pounds.

Compounding all the factors included in this list will help you complete an objective evaluation that gets you closer to your win.