Favorite NFL Futures Bets: AFC East

September 6, 2022

Megan Shoup

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I will be doing a series on all 8 NFL divisions and targeting the NFL Futures Bets that I like. I’m not going to bet on every team. I am looking for value in the bet and picking my spots for bets I like. After reviewing offseason moves, NFL Draft picks, Strength of Schedule, and more, these are the bets I like for the AFC East.

NOTES:

-Current Win Totals are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook. Obviously, shop around for the best lines. I used the same Sportsbook for consistency.

-The NFL Strength of Schedule – see the full list and all the details here.

Buffalo Bills

Current Win Total: 11.5 wins (OVER -135 / UNDER +115)

Strength of Schedule: T-12

Additions: QB Case Keenum, RB Duke Johnson, WR Jamison Crowder, TE O.J. Howard, G Roger Saffold, C Greg Mancz, Edge Von Miller, Edge Shaq Lawson, DT Tim Settle, DT Jordan Phillips

Departures: QB Mitch Trubisky, RB Matt Breida, WR Cole Beasley, WR Emmanuel Sanders, OT Daryl Williams, G Jon Feliciano, Edge Jerry Hughes, Edge Mario Addison, DT Harrison Phillips, DT Vernon Butler, CB Levi Wallace

Draft: CB Kaiir Elam, RB James Cook, LB Terrel Bernard, WR Khalil Shakir, P Matt Araiza, CB Christian Benford, OT Luke Tenuta, LB Baylon Spector

My Favorite Bets:

-Over 11.5 wins -135

Reasons Why?

QB Josh Allen and the Bills are THE favorites this season – AFC East, AFC, and the Super Bowl. This team is ascending and added Edge Von Miller to the mix on defense. I don’t typically bet the biggest favorite for those futures because I like taking shots with a little longer odds. Plus, even though the Bills very much should be the favorites to win it all, a championship team still needs some of the championship run luck on their side.

With a middle-of-the-road strength of schedule, I will take the Bills over 11.5 wins. And if the favorites do make it all the way to the Super Bowl, I will not be surprised.

Miami Dolphins

Current Win Total: 8.5 wins (OVER -135 / UNDER +115)

Strength of Schedule: 21st

Additions: QB Teddy Bridgewater, RB Chase Edmonds, RB Raheem Mostert, FB Alec Ingold, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Cedrick Wilson, OT Terron Armstead, G Connor Williams, CB Keion Crossen

Departures: QB Jacoby Brissett, WR Will Fuller, C Greg Mancz

Draft: LB Channing Tindall, WR Erik Ezukanma, LB Cameron Goode, QB Skylar Thompson

My Favorite Bets:

-10+ wins +115

-To Make the Playoffs +142

Reasons Why?

This summer I wrote about how I’m very excited to see what new HC Mike McDaniel brings to this Dolphins’ offense. He is a brilliant offensive mind that has learned under Kyle Shanahan and I believe he will set QB Tua Tagovailoa up for success, especially with the addition of Tyreek Hill, Chase Edmonds, and two new offensive linemen.

I’ll skip the over and take the plus odds at 10+ wins on FanDuel Sportsbook for the Dolphins. While the AFC is incredibly competitive, with the 21st strength of schedule, I think the Dolphins will be firmly in the playoff hunt. So I’ll take the Make the Playoffs bet on FanDuel Sportsbook at +142.

New England Patriots

Current Win Total: 8.5 wins (OVER -115/ UNDER -105)

Strength of Schedule: 16th

Additions: RB Ty Montgomery, CB Terrance Mitchell, CB Malcolm Butler

Departures: RB Brandon Bolden, G Shaq Mason, G/ C Ted Karras, Edge Chase Winovich, LB Dont’a Hightower, LB Kyle Van Noy, CB J.C. Jackson

Draft: G Cole Strange, WR Tyquan Thornton, CB Marcus Jones, CB Jack Jones, RB Pierre Strong, QB Bailey Zappe, RB Kevin Harris, DL Sam Roberts, G Chasen Hines, G Andrew Stueber

My Favorite Bets:

-None

Reasons Why?

While I was impressed with QB Mac Jones‘ rookie season and love the 1-2 punch of RBs Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, the receivers are weak and the offensive line is middle of the pack. The scariest part is Joe Judge and Matt Patricia are taking over for offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. That screams danger to this offense!

I can’t bet against Bill Belichick but I can’t be the over her either, so I’ll just pass.

New York Jets

Current Win Total: 5.5 wins (OVER -145 / UNDER +125)

Strength of Schedule: T-17

Additions: TE C.J. Uzomah, TE Tyler Conklin, QB Joe Flacco, G Laken Tomlinson, Edge Jacob Martin, CB D.J. Reed, S Jordan Whitehead

Departures: WR Jamison Crowder, OT Morgan Moses, Edge Shaq Lawson, DT Foley Fatukasi, LB Blake Cashman, S Marcus Maye

Draft: CB Ahmad Gardner, WR Garrett Wilson, Edge Jermaine Johnson, RB Breece Hall, TE Jeremy Ruckert, OT Max Mitchell, Edge Michael Clemons

My Favorite Bets:

-Over 5.5 wins -145

Reasons Why?

I don’t like the juice you have to pay for over 5.5 wins. But very winnable games against the Jaguars, Seahawks and Bears, I think the Jets can win 3 more once they get QB Zach Wilson back. I liked the Jets draft with the additions of WR Garrett Wilson and RB Breece Hall to build up the skill positions for Wilson. Give me the over here, but I’m guessing it will be a rollercoaster season.

What do you think of my AFC East bets? Will you be tailing any of these bets with me?