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Safe Pick: Oddsmakers say Tagovailoa will be QB2 over Herbert

Drafting a quarterback is rarely, if ever, considered a “safe pick” – especially when it comes to a QB with an injury history like Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa or one who has had to work at becoming a more vocal leader like Oregon’s Justin Herbert.

And the latest news on the two QBs only muddies the water.

The Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller confirmed a report from former general manager Michael Lombardi that claimed teams have medically flunked Tagovailoa.

And now there’s this item to add to the uncertainty, from Miller:

“There have been strong signals coming out of the team’s scouting department that they prefer quarterback Justin Herbert to Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa, which would frustrate Dolphins fans to no end after they spent two years waiting for the Crimson Tide signal-caller.”

Miller said a high-level scout hears Miami still wants Tagovailoa and that its flirtation with Herbert simply may be a way of ensuring another team doesn’t jump ahead of them at pick No. 5 to draft the Alabama junior.

“However, that’s only one opinion,” Miller wrote in his latest Scouting Notebook. “While it’s an educated one, it’s hard to listen to one voice when so many others are shouting that Herbert will be the guy. At this point in the predraft process — and I’m writing this exactly two weeks before the first pick is announced — it’s a safe estimate that 90 percent of the intel surrounding Miami points to Herbert.”

So the thinking is, it’ll be Herbert over Tagovailoa for Miami.

Unless it’s not.

Need some clarification? Look no further than the oddsmakers.

According to the latest odds, Tagovailoa is still the favorite to be the second quarterback selected after LSU’s Joe Burrow – regardless of who takes him.

Tagovailoa currently sits at minus-500, while Herbert is minus-300.

From GamblingSites.com:

“Our own Michael Wynn provides a good argument as to why Tua Tagovailoa will be a bust, but he’s still an elite prospect that a lot of teams covet. When and where Tua gets drafted isn’t the question; it’s if he’ll be the second passer taken.

“With Justin Herbert being graded below Tagovailoa and the odds favoring this play, bettors can safely bank on Tua’s name being called second among quarterbacks.”


Jake Rigdon (jake@sydwriting.com) covers the NFL draft for Fanspeak and the On The Clock, which is the only NFL draft simulator that allows you to customize and use your own big board while giving you control over trades.

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