NFL: Guide how to bet and make a profit!
The NFL is divided into 8 divisions, each of which includes 4 teams. During the short regular season (from September to February, all teams play 16 fights (8 home and 8 away). And at the end of the season, the 12 clubs with the most points take part in the playoffs, the final match of which became the most popular event not only in USA, but also in many other countries of the world.
A short long season makes it difficult to bet on this sport: there are too few matches to properly assess the potential of each team. But there are also many lovers who, having certain experience, are able to turn this disadvantage into a virtue.
Types of NFL Betting
Especially popular in the NFL is Spread betting, which is a bet on the winner taking into account the odds of Point spread. Thanks to this, the bookmakers manage to balance the chances of clubs of various levels, thus compensating the underdogs for the missing points to the detriment of the favorite teams.
In other words, the bookmaker predicts the victory of the favorite with a certain difference in points, which are called point spread. They are deducted from the favorite and transferred to the account of the outsider.
A bet on a favorite wins if he wins with a difference greater than that predicted by the bookmaker. A bet on an outsider wins if he wins, reduces the match in a draw or loses, but with a smaller difference than was predicted by the bookmaker.
On betting sites, sports betting can be seen as follows: Tennessee Titans -3.5 versus Kansas City Chiefs +3.5. It follows that after a bet on Tennessee, the team must win at least 4 points in order for your bet to win. If your choice fell on Kansas, then your bet will win if he loses no more than 3 points or wins.
Here you can make a prediction on how many teams will score in total during the match, taking into account overtime. In the middle numbers, the NFL teams are gaining 43 points per game for two, but because of the rules, 43 points in the match is a rare option. The most popular totals in the NFL are 41 and 44 points, each of which is found in about 4 percent of matches.
It is possible to bet “more / less” on individual teams – a good option if, for example, you have well studied the attack of one team and the opponent’s defense, but are not sure about the rest of the lines.
Related and interdependent markets with respect to totals are quotes for the team – the author of the most productive quarter, as well as bets on who gets to a certain number of points first.
Most bettors betting on the NFL choose bets on favorites. But just outsiders bookmakers give a big plus spread, which implies an advantage over favorite teams. If a player has a good nervous system, then he can very well bet on outsiders with high odds and win good money.
Take a look at the statistics. Over the past decade, there was a large spread of outsiders’ matches up to +10 points, moreover, most matches ended in victory for outsiders (54%). Of course, playing only on outsiders is very dangerous, but thanks to the support of bookmakers there is a positive trend.
As a rule, newcomers are afraid to bet on weak teams, but look again at the statistics: even in home games, bookmakers give outsiders a powerful spread of +7 points, which again gives them a serious advantage. In addition, in 60% of cases, the favorites lose!
It is interesting that the vast majority of matches ends with the victory of outsiders in spite of everything. Let’s make a simple calculation: if you make 10 bets on an outsider, and only three of them win, the player may well remain in the black, but if you make bets on the favorite in this situation, they will most likely send them to the deepest minus.
Home team bets
The regular price of the advantage of own field in the NFL is equal to 3 points. Thus, if you see in the presented line that the team serving as the host of the match has a handicap of “-3” points, this indicates that the chances of the teams are estimated by the 50×50 bookmaker. The hosts get an advantage only for the reason that they play in the home stadium.
So, if the teams are interchanged, then, in turn, the former guests will be quoted as favorites with the “-3” handicap. And to determine what exactly will be the advantage of the hosts, when they begin to play with rivals in their field, you need to subtract “6” from the intended handicap. Suppose that “Denver” plays with “Philadelphia” at home and the bookmaker offers a “-4.5” handicap, this suggests that the game will be held in Philadelphia and you can bet on the victory of “Denver” with the point spread“+1.5” .
Some NFL Betting Tips
Before betting on NFL, you need to take some precautions and consider certain factors. Below are some tips to help you make better bets. This is not to say that these tips are a universal strategy for betting on NFL, but you need to know all these things in order to avoid stupid losses at least.
Think with your own head. First of all, do not start from the line in your analysis, but before viewing the coefficients, evaluate for yourself what chances each team has to score a certain number of points in a match or play a head start.
It is necessary to take into account all the factors together – the weather, injuries, the advantage of the home site, the form of teams and so on. Learn the nfl expert picks and predictions, then having formed your opinion, you can already draw parallels with the quotes offered by the bookmaker.
No need to bet on every match. Yes, unlike other American leagues in the NFL, this is at least physically possible due to a not so tight calendar, but it is unlikely that you will break the bank with the volume of bets.
It is much more efficient to select several teams for analysis each week that you think are most profitable for the week, and focus on their matches. So it will be easier to track the dynamics of your game, notice errors and develop a betting strategy.
Catch the line as early as possible. At the very start of the market, you can sometimes find more favorable odds for the bet you need, especially if the analysis led you to the forecast for the favorite.
The home site factor is always worth considering. Teams hold matches in different stadiums, and each city has its own characteristics – somewhere natural turf, and somewhere artificial turf, some fans are driven forward, others play in chamber silence due to the many failed seasons.
Viewing statistics on yards and the shape of quarterbacks can help simplify the analysis. American football is a confrontation between attacking and defensive lines of teams. Therefore, the easiest way to understand the strength of a team is to track how much the team’s attack is gaining yards and how much its defense allows yards per game episode. Naturally, teams passing an average larger territory than their rival win more often.
Quarterback is the main creator on the field, and a huge percentage of success depends on its form and skill. If the team in the composition has a quarterback of the top five in the league, and there are no injuries in the attacking line, then betting on a favorite can be a good option.