NFL Historical Betting Trends

Anyone interested in betting on the NFL, or researching the history of football betting, will find that there’s an abundance of information available for every game that has taken place since the beginning of the first major betting databases in the 1980s and 90s. With more than three decades of point spread data to analyse, it really is possible to gain an edge and learn more about betting with a thorough examination of the historical odds.

But where do you find such history and how can you put it to good use, you ask? Sports betting data is available from a wide variety of sources, but here’s a general idea of where you should look and what you should be looking for when assessing historical betting trends in the NFL:

Free Sports Betting – Is It Really Free?

Before we get into sports betting history and how you can use it to make better bets on NFL games, let’s discuss another historical topic that’s commonly swept aside yet crucial in the world of sports betting – evaluating the value proposition and accuracy of the phrase “free sports betting.” In reality, nothing is free about placing a bet, and many sites will be quick to skim past the wagering requirements and other hidden terms within a promotional offer.

While this doesn’t directly speak to historical betting trends, it’s a valid point to keep in mind when you’re signing up for a site that promises free betting, as historically speaking, this has not always been the case. Many times, you’ll have to come out of pocket to facilitate a “free” bet, which, by definition, means it’s not truly free.

Using a Historical NFL Betting Database

The best way to take a closer look into NFL betting history is to search through a database like the one maintained by OddsShark. This database contains the point spread, score, and over/under of every single NFL game since 1980, making it one of the oldest and most complete archives of its kind. From 1990 on, every other stat was added for each game. Here are a few ways you can use the OddsShark NFL betting database:

• 1-on-1 Comparisons – You can use one of these databases to look up the history between two teams in a head to head comparison.
• Before/After Bye – You can also see how well a specific team did when playing before or after a bye.
• VS Division or Conference – You can see how well a specific team has done against a conference or division and specify whether the games were at home, away, or anywhere.

Regardless of which type of comparison or data set you request, you can choose between a sample size of 10, 20, or 30 games. Generally, using the largest sample size will give you the broadest reflection, but may also decrease the meaningfulness of the stats if they’re spread out over time too far. In other words, it might be more useful to assess the past 10-game stretch if you’re looking at the historical odds for a team-v.s-team match.

History Doesn’t Always Repeat Itself

Checking the history that two teams have against each other can be an intriguing consideration to make during your bet-making due diligence, but team-v.s-team odds don’t always have practical use in a modern situation. Still, nobody could blame you if you decided to bet on the Patriots in the Super Bowl given their championship history. In cases where historical betting trends are pointing towards a likely dynasty, the franchise attribute certainly comes into play.

In most cases, though, it’s better to look at similar match-ups rather than focusing on the team names. Comb through the archives to see if you can find 10 examples of games between similar teams with similar players. This approach will give you a more accurate historical precedent than simply stating that one team has beaten another at some distant point in the past.

Knowing the History Can Help You Make Wiser Bets

After you’ve started looking at betting history data on a regular basis, you’ll start to notice patterns and trends that will help you make better decisions going forward. In this way, being a betting historian is about more than just developing an interesting hobby – it should be a part of every betting enthusiast’s training and education.

Even if you don’t plan on writing a column on it, it always helps to have some independent analysis skills backing your betting decisions. After all, anyone who is serious about the NFL will have a little bit of a sport historian in them anyway, so you might as well nurture that urge to learn about the past and use it to improve your own future with better bet-making.