Final thoughts on the 2016 Senior Bowl

How many Senior Bowlers will be taken in the first round?

On average there are between 6-10 Senior Bowl players taken in the first round each year, give or take a player or two. So how many will go Thursday night in the draft this year? That’s an interesting question because there are a number of borderline 1st round talents who may or may not be selected depending on team’s needs at the end of the round.

Now a lot can change between now and draft day, but these players should be basically surefire 1st round picks:

QB Carson Wentz, DE Noah Spence, ILB Reggie Ragland, DL Sheldon Rankins, and DL Jarran Reed

Likely 1st round picks:

OG Cody Whitehair, DT Vernon Butler, DT Austin Johnson

Possible 1st round picks:

WR Braxton Miller, OT Jason Spriggs, S Darian Thompson, DT Adolphus Washington, DL Sheldon Day, OL Vadal Alexander

That’s a total of 14 players and doesn’t even include any long shot options. Now I don’t think all 14 will get taken in the first round, but I can see a good 10 prospects grabbed in the first round. My guess would be we will see the 8 from the “surefire” and “likely” category and we’ll see Spriggs and Miller slide in the end of the round.

Where we could see a real run on Senior Bowl prospects is in the 2nd round, where you could see another 15-18 Senior Bowl players. That would mean that of the top 63 picks, 25-28 of them could be Senior Bowlers. Now again a lot can change between now and April, but I think we’ll see numbers similar to this.

Carson Wentz still remains the top Senior Bowl Quarterback:

Wentz was the clear leader of the eight Senior Bowl QB’s heading into the week and he unquestionably had the best week of practice. Unfortunately his game performance didn’t match-up and other quarterbacks looked better, does that mean that teams will start thinking of dropping Wentz in their rankings? The simple answer is no way. Wentz not looking great in the game is far less important than three strong practices which saw him make considerably more throws than he had in the game. Also his previous standing as the better QB and the fact that he is the ideal height that teams are looking for will keep him above the other QBs.

Wentz’ poor showing in the game isn’t meaningless, but it’s just a small piece of the overall puzzle. For all the hype surrounding him and high pick consideration, most people acknowledge that he’s a bit of a project and needs a year or two of development. So Wentz staring down a receiver or hesitating to throw a pass aren’t exactly damning examples of why he shouldn’t be taken in the first round of the draft or why another Senior Bowl QB would be better than him.

Best position groups of the week:

By far the most dominant position group of the week was the defensive line. The level of talent on both defensive lines this week was simply unfair this week and that showed some in the game. Six or seven of these defensive linemen could be taken in the first round and as many as 10 should go in the first two rounds. Even the tier of defensive linemen beyond that looked strong this week. Other positions might have had 1-2 stand out players, but none could come close to the overall talent and production from this DL group.

Final thoughts on the importance of the Senior Bowl to NFL teams:

Every year during the Senior Bowl there seems to be a debate that rages on just how important this week and the game are in the overall draft evaluation process to NFL teams. There seems to be a growing number of people who think that the Senior Bowl is overrated in importance to NFL teams, and while I’m sure some analysts and experts tend to exaggerate the value of the week that is not how NFL teams are going to feel.

Is the Senior Bowl week the be all, end all of the scouting process and the only thing that matters in a scouting grade? Of course not, it’s just one part of the draft evaluation puzzle, but it is an important piece of that puzzle. NFL teams get their first chance to get a look at prospects up close during the weigh-in to see if their expected numbers on a prospect match-up in reality. While teams will get to do this again at the Scouting Combine, it can give them a head start on valuing some players more for their needs, as well as the ability to compare and contrast the weigh-in results. For team’s these results are really important as they have certain benchmarks they are typically looking for at various positions. Also by looking at body type you can see how a player carries that weight and project it going forward.

Next teams get to interview (and for many prospects multiple times) just about every prospect down in mobile (roughly 120) getting them a good feel for the player and an important part of the evaluation process. While players will get interviewed at the Combine, there are so many players in Indianapolis that your formal interviews are limited, and additional meetings will likely be shorter. By interviewing over 100 players at the Senior Bowl, NFL teams not only get a chance to talk with about 40% of the draft class, but it also allows them to plan their interviews at the Combine as well. If they weren’t impressed with a player at the Senior Bowl, then they probably won’t waste their time interviewing him at the combine or wasting one of their allotted visits on him. If it is a player that they really like and want to meet again, then they already have a head start on a player.

Practices are a big part of the Senior Bowl evaluation as it gives teams three days of watching these players under NFL coaching doing individual drills, head-to-head battles and of course team drills. All of those would have value for a single practice, so having three of them can give a lot of insight on players. This is especially true if players get to be used in a different way than they were used in college. Whether that means a position shift, or in a different style of offense/defense. Again this isn’t going to be the sole thing a player is judged on, but it is going to help the evaluation process. Especially because higher-ups/coaches can get a better look (or first look) on some players. If one or two catches their eye, then that head personnel guy/coach will maybe really start to study all the tape they have on a player. While the Combine and pro days can do that on some level, they are very brief in comparison and of course they are more scripted without any head-to-head competition.

Finally, the game has value in the scouting process as well. Now many people dismiss it because so many teams send most (if not all) of their delegations home before the game, but that doesn’t mean they don’t take it into consideration. A number of teams do leave a scout or two behind to watch the game live and report on it. Teams send most of their personnel home because they can watch the tape of the game, and unlike practice where there are multiple units going at once, all the action is centralized. Cowboys coach Jason Garrett in a press conference this week, made it clear that the game is still important every year in the process. He said that they will watch the film of the game “over and over again” focusing on different players. Overall I think the game is least important part of the Senior Bowl total evaluation, but it still will play a role.