Outback Bowl Preview

Tennessee vs Northwestern

Where can I see it? Friday, January 1st at Noon ET on ESPN2

Overview

This is an interesting match-up between a very talented team that isn’t particularly well coached and might be a year away in terms of experience versus an experienced, extremely well-coached team that has overachieved to get to 10-2 and seeks to become the first 11 win team in the school’s history. The Volunteers 8-4 record includes blown 4th quarter leads against Oklahoma, Florida and Alabama. The coaching match-up is one of the best recruiters in college football in Tennessee’s Butch Jones vs one of the best coaches & motivators in Northwestern’s Pat Fitzgerald.

When Rocky Top has the Ball

Tennessee is loaded with Sunday talent at WR & TE led by Von Pearson, Josh Malone, Ethan Wolf and Marquez North. In addition, Freshman WR JaJuan Jennings brings size and speed to the position as well. However, none of that matters because Mike DeBord’s 1950’s offense led by Josh Dobbs can’t consistently complete passes more than 8 yards. This is due to a variety of factors: offensive line, raw WRs and Dobbs is simply inaccurate for all but the easiest of passes. The Vol run game though is one of the best in the country led by an elite back in Jalen Hurd with power, speed and wiggle. Dobbs functions as an extra RB and runs the ball like an elite FB.

Complementing them is the breakaway speed of JC transfer Alvin Kamara. Kamara is also Rocky Top’s most dangerous weapon in the pass game. Northwestern counters with a defense that has two corners that might play on Sunday in Matthew Harris and Nick VanHoose. Pass rushers Deonte Gibson and Ryan Lowry provide constant pressure and clearly won the match-up vs Stanford’s offensive line in week one. Northwestern’s best defensive player is off ball LB Anthony Walker. Walker is a fast, tackling machine who makes plays all over the field.

Tennessee is a similar team offensively to Stanford with big play RBs & a QB with spotty accuracy with Stanford having a better offensive line than the Vols before injuries hit the Tennessee offensive line. The Northwestern defense adjusted to Stanford and completely shut them down. I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Vol kick returner, Evan Berry. Berry is one of the nation’s most explosive returners with a 38 yards per return average and 3 touchdowns on the season. Every team that has played the Vols this year has held their breath every time Berry has touched the ball.

Premier Matchup for Draftniks: A preview of a couple of 2017 NFL draft players: Northwestern’s tackling machine, pursuit LB, Anthony Walker vs Tennessee’s elite RB, Jalen Hurd. Walker will be giving away 15 pounds to Hurd. Walker was very effective vs Stanford’s McCafferty. Hurd brings the wiggle of a back much smaller than 240 pounds but still brings the boom of a 240 pound RB.

When the Doctors and Physicists have the ball
The Northwestern offense is basically two players: bell-cow back, Justin Jackson and superback (think TE, FB, WR hybrid – a unique position in Northwestern’s offense), Dan Vitale. Jackson is a smaller back who because of his balance & vision is a better inside runner than it would seem at first glance. Vitale is a unique talent with great hands and excellent game speed at 6’2 235. Tennessee’s defensive unit is loaded with Sunday talent in this game. Defensive lineman Derek Barnett & Khalil McKenzie are both Sunday players not eligible for 2016 NFL draft. The two best 2016 NFL draft talents in the game are Tennessee CB Cameron Sutton and the Vols pursuit LB, Jalen Reeves-Maybin. It will be interesting to see if the Vols put Sutton on Northwestern’s best receiver, Vitale or if Jalen Reeves-Maybin draws that assignment.

Premier Matchup for Draftniks: Northwestern’s Superback, do-everything, Dan Vitale vs Jalen Reeves-Maybin. This is a match-up of two of the best players at their position in the 2016 NFL draft. A couple of undersized but athletic players who will be fun to watch all game long.

2016 Draft Offensive Player to Watch – Dan Vitale TE Northwestern- With most of Tennessee’s elite offensive talent either ineligible for 2016 or completely unused in the offense, the choice is Vitale. Vitale accounts for 21% of Northwestern’s total passing yards ranking him in the top 5 among TE’s in the nation (credit to @jmcobern1 – https://draftcobern.wordpress.com/ – for market share information). His tape supports his market share numbers as a TE that snatches the ball out of his frame with his hands and is able to get open using his athletic ability. Vitale isn’t going to be for everyone because he doesn’t have the normal frame for a TE at 6’2, 235 and not many teams use a FB nowadays. Tennessee’s Alvin Kamara would draw interest as a situation back that can catch the ball, make big plays but also is a good runner who doesn’t tip absolute pass to the defense by his presence on the field.

2016 Draft Defensive Player to Watch – Cameron Sutton CB Tennessee– Sutton is a long CB that is all the rage in the NFL. Unlike many hyped long CB’s, Sutton also shows plus hip and ankle flex to change directions with WRs and the long speed to run with them. Coming into 2015, he needed to clean up his tackling and he did so. More concerning now was he did not make as many plays both from an interception and passes defended standpoint as you would like or expect from an elite prospect. Sutton will be the higher drafted of the two but Jalen Reeves-Maybin might be the better pro. Maybin is more physical than his size indicates and he might even be able to play safety on Sundays.

Prediction- I am an SEC guy and a Vols fan so I’m taking the Vols in a low scoring 14-10 win.