2011 NFL Mock Draft Picks 17-32 Updated Mar. 8th
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17. New England Patriots (From Oakland): OLB Robert Quinn, North Carolina-
The Patriots could look to go in a number of directions here, including DE (the 3-4 variety), RB, WR, OT, OG, or Rush LB, and I think they will take the best player available at one of those needs. Given their propensity to focus on defense I think that is where they will look. While I’ve been mocking them J.J. Watt for a while, their vast depth of draft picks will allow them to still get a quality 5-technique DE later in the draft. With Quinn still on the board, New England will get the elite pass rusher they have been sorely lacking. I think Quinn might end up being better suited as a 4-3 end, but he should do quite well rushing the quarterback from the outside linebacker position.
New England is a prime candidate to trade up (or even trade down), but right now I think Watt is their prime choice.
pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OLB Aldon Smith
Feb. 18th update: The Patriots will give Cam Jordan a long hard look, as well as Julio Jones. I think Watt is still their pick and he will be an immediate starter.
Feb. 25th update: Watt almost looks like he was born to be a Patriot, and while there are some other interesting options I still see this as they way they go.
Mar. 2nd: Watt blew up the combine, but unfortunately for him so did a number of other players. Watt is basically a borderline top 10 talent, so getting him at 17 is fantastic value.
pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection, DE J.J. Watt
18. San Diego Chargers: DE J.J. Watt, Wisconsin-
With the Patriots passing on J.J. Watt, San Diego lands a player worth of a top 10 pick in the 2nd half of round 1. The Chargers could consider an offensive lineman or receiver here, but defensive end is their biggest need and Watt should fill it exceptionally well.
pick change, Jan. 25th previous pick: DE J.J. Watt
pick change, Feb. 3rd previous pick: WR Julio Jones
Feb. 25th update: I’d still be pretty shocked to see Jordan fall this far, but it is possible. If he does the Chargers almost have to take him.
pick change:Feb. 24th previous selection DE Cam Jordan.
pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection OLB Robert Quinn
19. New York Giants: OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA-
Although a number of teams could target Ayers, I see him falling a little bit, since he is more of a 4-3 OLB, than a 3-4. Sure he rushes the passer, but guys like Smith and Miller do it better. Ayers plays better in coverage and diagnosing runs, making him a more ideal fit for a 4-3 team. The Giants desperately need to upgrade their back 7 (and could also look DT). He can be useful blitzing the quarterback, but can go out in coverage as well. He would be a big upgrade for the G-men, and should be able to start from day 1.
Feb. 3rd update: Giants still will look at a few other positions, but I don’t see them passing up Ayers and a big upgrade to that defense.
Feb. 17th update: I know some people are looking for the Giants to take an offensive lineman , but I don’t see it in the first round. Not with Ayers on the board.
Feb. 25th update: Ayers to the Giants is one of the biggest no-brainers in this draft, and barring them landing a top LB in free agency I can’t see how they look elsewhere.
Mar. 2nd update: I wasn’t thrilled with Ayers at the Combine, and considered moving him down, but I think what is more likely is he is now the late teens-early 20’s player, that I’ve been slotting him as. He still is a great fit for the G-Men, and should be near the top of their draft board.
Mar. 6th update: I’m still enough of a believer in Ayers to keep him at this spot, but I think his hold of it is tenuous at best.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue-
I’ve been mocking them an offensive tackle for some time, but I really think Tampa could be happy with Ryan Kerrigan. He has fallen some in my book and this is a bit high for him, but he can get after the quarterback. Sacks didn’t come easy for the Buccaneers last season, and that has to change for them to take their game to the next level and become a playoff team. I worry about Kerrigan in the ground game, but I do still like him as a pass rusher.
pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection OT Nate Solder
pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo
pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection OT Gabe Carimi
Mar. 2nd update: Kerrigan blew up at the Combine, and really showed great athleticism. He even answered some questions about standing up as an OLB. I think Kerrigan is a great fit for Tampa and should be a fantastic pass rusher at the next level.
Mar. 6th update: I think Tampa would be thrilled with Kerrigan, and it will take something pretty spectacular to make them look in a different direction.
21. Kansas City Chiefs: OLB/DE Justin Houston, Georgia-
The Chiefs might be desperate for a receiver, but there is no one on the board here worth taking. I realize that they have been drafting pretty steady on defense of late, but they do have their tight end, running back, and quarterback (at least they believe so) positions set. Offensive line looks pretty good assuming they resign their free agents (not big name stars so I see them coming back). Receiver is a big issue, but it will need to be addressed in free agency to find a real fix. I think the Chiefs will look to add another pass rusher to compliment Hali, and Houston is a great fit. While the Chiefs defense did a lot of things well this season they were really a one man show when it came to rushing the passer. If they can add a second threat it will strengthen the entire defense.
Feb. 3rd Update: The Chiefs still are in need of a complement to Hali, and I think Houston is the perfect fit for them.
Feb. 18th Update: Justin Houston still looks like a great pick for the Chiefs, though Julio Jones will tempt them. If they have not added anyone via free agency, Jones could be the pick, otherwise Houston and Hali will wreck havoc on the AFC West.
Feb. 24th update: 3-4’s succeed because of their line (which is improving) and their pass rush, adding Houston ensures the latter of those two is going to be very good.
Mar. 2nd update: Houston I thought put together a very nice Combine, and showed well in both the athletic and positional drills. Houston is firming up a spot in the top 20-25 rankings and is a good fit in K.C.
Mar. 6th update: This is a slight reach for the Chiefs, but I still don’t see why they wouldn’t want a bookend to Hali.
22. Indianapolis Colts: OT Anthony Castonzo, Boston College-
I finally gave in and now have the Colts taking an offensive tackle. They could take one in free agency, but they might not want to pay the high price tag with having to resign Peyton this offseason. Look for the Colts to add a good defensive player or two in free agency to allow them to take an OT. Castonzo I thought preformed well at the Scouting Combine, and looked to be the 2nd best tackle in the draft. I don’t think he is the perfect tackle, but he should be a day one starter and protect Peyton’s blindside for a number of years.
pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DT Stephen Paea
Feb. 18th update: I realize I’m going against the grain here as most people have them targeting a tackle. I just feel strongly the Colts will use free agency and the rest of the draft to fill their OT need. Ballard is a great fit for them and fills a huge need.
pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection DT Christian Ballard
pick change: Feb. 25th previous selection OT Gabe Carimi
Mar. 6th update: While DT is still a real possibility, if they have a shot at Castonzo, I can’t see them passing it up. Protecting Manning and getting some help for the ground game is a top priority.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: CB Jimmy Smith, Colorado-
The Eagles have a pressing need at offensive tackle and I’m not buying their faith in Winston Justice, but I am starting to think they might look elsewhere in the draft. Corner back is almost as big of a need as offensive line, and Jimmy Smith is moving up draft boards. He is a big strong physical corner, that will have no problem matching up with the Cowboys’ Dez Bryant and Miles Austin. Smith should really shore up that secondary and turn it into a strength. The Eagles will need to still find an offensive tackle, but they should have some options in free agency to do so.
Feb. 3rd update: Although I’d personally prefer Carimi, I’m thinking Sherrod will go higher in the draft. Unless they upgrade OT in free agency the Eagles need to strengthen that line.
Feb. 18th update: Sherrod could move a little higher, but this seems like a good spot for him. If the Eagles haven’t addressed their corner need a guy like Brandon Harris is a legitimate option.
pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection OT Derrek Sherrod
Mar. 2nd update: Jimmy Smith has some red flags, but the Eagles have been known to take chances on people. He has fantastic talent so they are getting an elite player, but there are some serious questions.
Mar. 6th update: Jimmy Smith on talent alone is a top 15 player, but his character concerns will likely get him to slip the Eagles.
24. New Orleans Saints: G/C Mike Pouncey, Florida-
I think Mark Ingram would have been their pick if he was available. But, with him off the board and the Saints filling their DT need with Shaun Rogers, I could see them looking to upgrade their offensive line. Yes they already have two of the best guards in the league, but Carl Nicks is a restricted free agent, and I’m not sure if they are willing to have both of their guards signed to massive contracts. If they land Pouncey, they could look to trade Nicks, before he is an unrestricted free agent next season. Even if they keep Nicks, they could always start Pouncey at center where, there current starter, Jonathan Goodwin is also currently a free agent.
Feb. 3rd update: More and more I’m thinking the Saints will look at Ingram with this pick. Their lack of a consistent running game is their only flaw on offense. And while the running back by committee approach worked two years ago, this year was a fairly big disaster. Ingram alleviates that, and can be the true feature back for them.
pick change: Feb 18th previous selection RB Mark Ingram
Feb. 24th update: There are a couple ways the Saints could go, but adding a DT, could really bring this defense together. I know it is a number of years straight taking a defensive player first, but without another first round quality running back, I can’t see that trend changing.
pick change: Feb. 25th previous selection DT Drake Nevis
Mar. 6th update: Pouncey is somewhat of a luxury pick, but it allows them to have multiple options. It is never a bad strategy to strengthen their offensive line, so I see this a real possibility.
25. Seattle Seahawks: DT Corey Liuget, Illinois-
The Seahawks have a number of needs so I think they will go with the best player available strategy, and at this point no player has more value than Liuget. Liuget has the makings of a star defensive tackle. While he could potentially play outside in a 3 man front, his best position is DT. Seattle could be looking at losing their best D-lineman in DT Brandon Mebane, so Liuget could possibly be his replacement. Even if they keep Mebane, pairing him with Liuget would be a nightmare for opposing offenses.
pick change: previous selection DE Cameron Jordan
Feb. 17th update: Aaron Williams still makes sense at this pick, though D-line is still an option. A lot could depend on whether or not they bring Brandon Mebane back at DT, if he leaves there is a pretty big hole for the Seahawks to fill.
Feb. 24th update: I still like Williams with this pick, but with so many needs, it is very possible they go in a different direction.
pick change: Feb. 24th previous selection CB Aaron Williams
pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection QB Jake Locker
26. Baltimore Ravens: CB Brandon Harris, Miami-
The Ravens have one of the elite defenses in the league, but their corner back play is still average at best. Harris is a promising young corner, who has the skills to develop into a number one corner. Until then the Ravens will be quite happy with him being number two, and a big upgrade.
Feb. 3rd update: Ravens could target defensive line or linebacker, but I’m fairly confident this pick is on defense. CB remains their biggest need and Harris is a good fit for them.
Feb. 17th update: This is pure need over desire. Julio Jones would look nice in a Ravens uniform, but they have to fill that hole at CB.
Feb. 24th update: Corner back has to be number one on the Ravens wish list, and Harris is good value at this spot.
Mar. 2nd update: I think Harris is quickly becoming the 3rd best corner in this draft class. He looks to be a playmaker at the next level and shouldn’t disappoint Ravens fans.
Mar. 6th update: Harris has a lot of upside and while he might not be elite he has the potential to be pretty close to it.
27. Atlanta Falcons: TE Kyle Rudolph, Notre Dame-
Although the Falcons need to upgrade their pass rush, there aren’t any good 4-3 ends available at this pick. They could grab a guy like Heyward or Ballard and kick him inside on passing downs, but I’m guessing they go in a different direction. They could target an offensive lineman if they lose one of their starters in free agency, but for now I like Kyle Rudolph with this pick. No it isn’t the wide receiver they are hoping for, but Rudolph, should still be a good weapon in year one, despite being Tony Gonzalez’s understudy. Surround Matt Ryan with as many weapons as possible is key for Atlanta, and Rudolph definitely qualifies.
pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection TE Kyle Rudolph
pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection WR Torrey Smith
pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection WR Julio Jones
pick change: Feb. 25th previous selection DE Christian Ballard
Mar. 6th update: This is a little high for Rudolph, but he is the perfect fit for the Falcons, and with no DE’s available here that are worth the pick, adding a weapon for Ryan is key.
28. New England Patriots: OT Derek Sherrod, Miss. St.-
While I like the idea of the Patriots grabbing a playmaker, I’m thinking they will take the more practical approach at take an offensive lineman. Sherrod is 4th on my OT board, but I see him as a guy the Patriots will like. He can play on either side and is more of a pass blocker than a run blocker. The Pats need him, because with Matt Light on the way out, and New England’s once elite offensive line is showing some holes. The Jets exploited some of those weaknesses in the Playoffs, as they were even able to get pressure with 3 and 4 men rushing. Unless the Patriots add a top tackle in free agency, they will have to address it early in the draft.
pick change: Jan. 25th previous selection DE Allen Bailey
pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection WR Titus Young
pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection WR Torrey Smith
pick change: Feb. 25th previous selection OT Anthony Castonzo
Mar. 6th update: Unless they add a FA tackle the Pats need to add a starting caliber guy, and Sherrod is the top guy on the board.
29. New York Jets: DE Muhammad Wilkerson Temple-
The Jets are likely to lose Shaun Ellis to free agency this offseason leaving a major void along their defensive line. I think this has to be New York’s top priority come draft time, and they should be quite pleased with Wilkerson. I’ve previously had Cameron Heyward here, but his injury could knock him down a peg. Wilkerson is a little raw, but he flashes big time upside, and looks to be effective both against the rush and the pass. He should ensure that the Jets don’t miss Ellis too much, and will help keep this defense among the league’s elite.
Feb. 3rd update: While Heyward’s injury could have him drop into the early 2nd round, I think the Jets will probably look past that. Now of course you never know and a lot will be dependent on how much he can workout before the draft. Right now I still think he is their pick.
Feb. 17th update: Jets franchised Harris and apparently their top targets are their two receivers. It looks as though they could need a corner, but I’m guessing they find another way to fill that need.
Feb. 24th update: A lot will depend on what they lose in free agency, but until then Heyward is the smart pick.
Mar. 2nd update: Heyward is still the tentative pick, but I do believe there are a number of directions the Jets could go.
pick change: Mar. 2nd previous selection DE Cameron Heyward
30. Chicago Bears: OT Nate Solder, Colorado –
Nate Solder is a boom or bust tackle, and I consider him the 5th best OT in the draft. I do think he will go higher than others and remain a first round pick because of that unlimited upside. I liked what I saw from Solder in the offensive lineman drills at the Combine, but his lack of upper body strength does worry me. He’s a good fit for Chicago, given his quickness, but he needs to maintain leverage if he is going to be a star.
pick change: previous selection OT DeMarcus Love
Feb. 17th update: I have some real concerns about Solder, and the more I watch him the less I like, but I am thinking he will still go in the first round. The Bears have a big enough need they, won’t let the concerns about Solder stop them.
pick change: Feb. 17th previous selection OT Nate Solder
pick change: Feb. 25th previous selection OT Derek Sherrod
Mar. 6th update: The Bears need to come out of this draft with an offensive tackle, otherwise I really doubt they’ll be able to come anywhere close to replicating their success from last year.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: OT Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin-
I’ve had Pouncey going to the Steelers for quite some time, but I could see him off the board by this pick. If that is the case Pittsburgh should waste no time turning in their card for Carimi, who is a perfect fit for them. Last season both of their starting tackles missed a significant amount of time due to injury, so it is a major need for Pittsburgh. Carimi could have been born to play in Pittsburgh as he is a pure road grinder, with a blue collar attitude. He will be devastating in run blocking and more than hold his own in pass blocking. He’s probably a better fit on the right side, but since both tackles need upgraded he fits in Pittsburgh.
Feb. 3rd update: CB and OT are still big needs, but grabbing another interior lineman is key. I don’t think there is anyway they let Pouncey slip by them.
Feb. 17th update: I know the Steelers have a need at corner, but their guards were getting pretty well manhandled in the Super Bowl. Putting the Pouncey boys together will be the best thing for both Roethlisberger and Mendenhall.
Feb. 24 update: I still think Pouncey and Pouncey is a dream scenario for the Steelers offensive line. Now if Willie Colon or Ike Taylor leave it could change their strategy.
pick change: previous selection OG Mike Pouncey
Mar. 6th update: I love the Carimi to the Steelers idea. I think he is just the blue collar, power running guy that they are looking for.
32. Green Bay Packers: WR Torrey Smith, Maryland-
This is a bit of a luxury pick, but it makes sense as well. I know the Packers have some defensive and offensive line issues, but they also could have a huge issue developing at WR. James Jones is a free agent, and I’m guessing he’ll get priced out of what the Packers are willing to pay. On top of Jones leaving, Donald Driver is coming off his worst season and might only have one more year left. A good young receiver like Torrey Smith, does make some sense for the Packers. Their window is now, and adding weapons for Aaron Rodgers has to be a top priority. Smith has the speed and quickness to help stretch the field, and be a home run threat.
Feb. 3rd update: Packers could go in a different direction, but I think Liuget makes a lot of sense for them still.
pick change: Feb. 3rd previous selection DE/DT Corey Liuget
pick change: Feb. 18th previous selection WR Titus Young
Mar. 2nd update: I thought Smith had a pretty good Combine overall and should make a strong case for being the Packers pick. They could look at another area, but I think the idea of adding a top weapon will prevail.
Mar. 6th update: This is a pick that could go in any number of directions, but the Packers are pretty definite to lose James Jones this season, so they could look long and hard at WR.