We've updated our Privacy Policy.
The Sports Fan’s Interactive Toolbox | On the Clock Premium

Dynasty Football Rookie Draft Running Back Breakdown

Now that the NFL draft is over we have the whole picture for rookies and what their Dynasty Football outlook will be. We will go position-by-position breaking down every player drafted and what their dynasty outlook is at their landing spot. The main focus will be PPR Dynasty value, but acknowledgement to Superflex will be considered as well. Today we look at the Running backs:

In Dynasty finding young running backs that you can utilize for their first 4-6 years is key to succeeding in your league. Though QBs and WRs will retain their value for longer, running backs are still a focal point in the format. In addition the typical expanded roster sizes of Dynasty leagues allow you to find those diamonds from the late rounds of the draft, before season long players would. Guys like Khalil Herbert and Elijah Mitchell weren’t on many season long rosters last season, which caused a mad scramble on the waiver wire/blind bidding. For Dynasty both of those late round backs were likely sitting at the bottom of someone’s roster.

In Dynasty it is also important to project forward the depth chart of teams, and the eventual opportunity. For running backs this is in some cases easier, since teams typically won’t overcommit resources to the position. Obviously a lot can still change with injuries and new coaching staffs, but generally speaking you can have a reasonable idea of a future role.

(Note Players will be listed in the order they were drafted)

Breece Hall, New York Jets – 2nd round (36th overall):

-Hall was widely considered the top back in the class after he ran for over 3,000 yards and 41 TDs the last two seasons. He has excellent testing numbers and displays good receiving skills as well. Hall has the size to hold up as a feature back and doesn’t have any major weakness to his game.

The Jets are a strong landing spot for Hall as he should easily have the featured back role and be the primary option on the goal line. Michael Carter will steal some of the passing work from Hall, but he will still add decent points in that area. If the Jets offense improves and he has enough scoring opportunities, Hall should be an RB1 as a rookie. Even if he falls short, it’s likely he’s a high-end RB2.

Expect him to go 1.01 or 1.02 in just about every Dynasty and SF draft.

Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks – 2nd round (41st overall):

– Walker transferred to Michigan State and became the Spartans featured back this season with over 1,600 yards and 18 TDs. He unfortunately wasn’t ever used much in the passing game, but he should be at least adequate there. Walker is a great combination of speed and power, as he was among the best in college at breaking tackles, while displaying a strong 2nd gear.

Walker has an interesting fit with Seattle, with pros and cons for his outlook. On the positive side Seattle is going to be a run first team, and figures to rely on it more without Russell Wilson. On the negative side, he is likely to split carries as a rookie with Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny. Also Seattle typically doesn’t throw a ton to their backs, and this offense could just be bad.

Despite some concerns for year one, long term value wins out and Walker has feature back potential. He should go between 1.02 and 1.05 in just about every format.

James Cook, Buffalo Bills – 2nd round (63rd overall):

-Cook was a bit of a surprise as the 3rd back off the board, but he offers excellent potential as a receiving back, with big play rushing potential. He didn’t get enough chance to showcase himself in Georgia’s offense, but the big play ability is legitimate.

If it all comes together he could be an Alvin Kamara/Austin Ekler type of player. While Devin Singletary will probably be the primary rusher for Buffalo, Cook could be a major passing weapon racking up catches. This is an offense that has been desperate for that type of role, and offers extreme upside given their efficiency. Going forward Cook could even see a larger rushing role as Singletary is in the final year of his rookie deal.

There is a wide range of potential outcomes here, but Buffalo invested a high pick in Cook and figures to find a way to get him on the field. Expect him to go late rd 1- early rd 2.

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 3rd round (91st overall):

-White is one of the most dynamic backs in the class, with explosive big play ability. He’s extremely good in the open field and will pick up big chuck plays. White also is one of the better receiving backs in the class.

He should quickly establish himself as the number 2/satellite back in Tampa, fending off Vaughn and Gio Bernard. He will still firmly be behind Leonard Fournette for at least 2 years, but there is future potential as well.

Given that his fantasy points are likely capped for the first 2 years, I’d hold off till early Rd. 2.

Tyrion Davis-Price, San Francisco 49ers – 3rd round (93rd overall):

-This was a bit of a surprise pick as Davis-Price was typically valued as a late 4th-early 5th, and the 49ers weren’t thought to be in the market for an early round back. Davis-Price finally got the starting role at LSU, and after a slow start he was excellent for the Tigers down the stretch. He is a strong between the tackles runner, but it is intriguing that Kyle Shanahan and company feel that he can fit his system. One concern will be can he contribute in the receiving game, as he showed very little in college.

While on paper this situation looks overcrowded with Elijah Mitchell and Trey Sermon on the roster, but it’s impossible to ignore the draft capital here. Also, if Kyle Shanahan signs off on a running back, that is an incredible endorsement. It’s possible that San Francisco already see’s Davis-Price ahead of Sermon, which puts him in a great spot to add value as a rookie. Also, last year San Francisco had to run Deebo Samuel quite a lot, from the offseason noise it seems likely that will be no longer on the table.

It’s tough to slot Davis-Price in Dynasty drafts as the short and long term opportunity could be either incredible or non-existent. I do think his potential and draft capital still warrant a later 2nd round selection.

Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders – 3rd round (98th overall):

-Robinson is a powerful, between the tackles back who finally got the starting shot at Alabama, rushing for over 1,300 yards and 14 TDs. The landing spot isn’t great, as Washington already has a 1,000 yard back in Antonio Gibson and a pass catcher in J.D. McKissic, both signed for at least 2 years. The talk from Washington is that Robinson and Gibson will both have a role, which likely limits them both from a fantasy perspective. What Robinson is intriguing at is one of the best back-up/handcuff backs. If all three of Gibson, Robinson, and McKissic are healthy the value stays limited, but if one back goes down the other two will both be fantasy viable. Washington wants to be a run heavy team, so Robinson could fall into an incredible role. Probably would wait till the late 2nd, but there is upside there.

Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans – 4th round (107th overall):

-Pierce was only a part time back at Florida, but his tape and athletic profile shows the potential for a complete back in the NFL. He also lands in a fantastic spot as the Texans only have Marlon Mack and Rex Burkhead really ahead of him. Perhaps Mack is now fully healthy from his injury two years ago, but if he’s not Pierce could pass him on the depth chart before the season starts. Even if Mack starts the year as the top back, Pierce should carve out a solid role. Going forward there is zero RB investment for 2023, so it would become Pierce’s job to lose. Now if he struggles, yes Houston will probably bring in competition next season, but the potential is here for him to take over as the primary back. Pierce is worth considering in the late 1st-early 2nd range.

Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders – 4th round (122nd overall):

-White shared carries at Georgia, but he does have feature back upside if given the opportunity. He’s more athletic than people thought, and runs with good balance and power. He won’t get that feature role immediately as Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake are ahead of him, but in 2023 they are both free agents. This Raiders offense is primed to be very good over the next few years, so if you can lock in a potential 2023 and 2024 starting back, that is an intriguing option. There is some unknowns here, but he’s still worth late 2nd/early 3rd consideration.

Isaiah Spiller, LA Chargers – 4th round (123rd overall):

-Spiller came into the draft process as a favorite to go as a top 3 back and potential 2nd rounder. He was highly productive at Texas A&M for three seasons, but fell in draft circles due to his testing numbers. Though he went later than most would hope, this is a fair landing spot for Spiller. The Chargers have openly talked about getting a power back to complement Austin Ekler, and just haven’t found a good fit. This led to Ekler rushing for more TDs that probably LA wanted last season. If Spiller wins this number 2 job, it could be 150-175 carries, 20+ catches and the primary goal line work. That can be a valuable spot in fantasy, and if Ekler were to miss any games he’s an RB1. Mid-2nd round is where you should be looking to take him.

Pierre Strong Jr., New England Patriots – 4th round (127th overall):

-Strong was a small school guy, who had a lot of interest in draft circles. Unfortunately he goes to one of the more crowded situations in New England (including 6th rounder Kevin Harris), who have Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, and James White locked in. Next season Harris and White could have moved on, but Stevenson figures to be ahead of Strong. The draft capital is strong enough to take him late in dynasty drafts, but don’t expect much rookie production.

Hassan Haskins, Tennessee Titans – 4th round (131st overall):

-Haskins lands in a prime handcuff spot behind Derrick Henry with the Titans. Haskins has a very similar skill set to Henry, and there is no clear back-up now in Tennessee. Last season when Henry missed some time, D’Onta Foreman put together multiple strong fantasy weeks. Haskins doesn’t have a clear path to become a starter, but there is clear value in this role, particularly if you think Henry could begin to break down.

Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons – 5th round (151st overall):

-Allgeier put together an incredible 1,600 yard season at BYU, and profiles as a strong between the tackles running back, with high TD upside. He can be okay as a receiver as well, adding a bit of value there. The draft capital was low, but the opportunity is strong in Atlanta. Patterson will be the starting RB on paper, but he will likely be highly involved in the passing game and might be on the field plenty with other backs. The Falcons have already released Mike Davis, opening the door for Allgeier to be that more “primary” back. Despite Atlanta projecting as a poor offense, If Allgeier gets that role he can be an RB3 with RB2 upside. Long-term hopefully he plays well enough that Atlanta won’t prioritize a RB next season, but this is an intriguing situation worth 2nd round draft capital.

Snoop Conner, Jacksonville Jaguars – 5th round (154th overall):

-Conner was a number two back at Mississippi, but has some decent skills that could translate to the NFL. This was still probably a bit high for him and the landing spot isn’t necessarily great as Jacksonville has Etienne, Robinson and Armstead all ahead of him. While there are some injury concerns, I’d probably avoid taking Conner this year.

Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns – 5th round (156th overall):

-Ford goes to perhaps the most crowded backfield in the league, but it could open up next season with Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson as free agents. Ford has a nice skill set, but even if those free agents leave, there is no guarantee that he ends up the 2nd back. He’s worth stashing if you can afford it, but this is a tough situation to get excited about right now.

Kyren Williams, LA Rams – 5th round (164th overall):

-Williams was very productive at Notre Dame, but doesn’t get the best landing spot here. Cam Akers is clearly the number one, with Darrell Henderson behind him. Williams will have to battle Jake Funk for the 3rd role. He could be worth a 4th rounder in the hope that he gets the 3rd role and Henderson moves on next season.

Ty Chandler, Minnesota Vikings – 5th round (169th overall):

-Chandler had a fantastic year at UNC after transferring in, he has an ok landing spot here with Minnesota. Chandler is likely no better than the 3rd back as a rookie, but Alexander Mattison is a free agent after the season. Mattison’s been a solid streamer when Cook hasn’t been able to play, so Chandler could be a good hand-cuff back a year from now.

Kevin Harris, New England Patriots – 6th round (183rd overall):

-After his 2020 monster season at South Carolina, Harris had an injury filled 2021. He slid to the 6th round, but the most troubling thing for his dynasty value is the landing spot. New England’s backfield is so crowded, that it’s likely Harris will be targeted for the Practice Squad.

Tyler Badie, Baltimore Ravens – 6th round (196th overall):

-Badie is a talented shifty satellite back, but he lands in questionable situation. J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards figure to be the 1-2 backs if they are healthy, with Tyson Williams and Justice Hill in the mix as well. Badie has a shot to move up the depth chart, but even if he does find his way onto the field Baltimore has not been good for pass catching backs.

Keaontay Ingram, Arizona Cardinals – 6th round (201st overall):

-Ingram has a good size/athletic profile and was solid in his lone year as the top back at USC. What makes him very intriguing is the landing spot. The Cardinals have very little currently behind James Conner (Eno Benjamin being the current 2nd back), leaving the opportunity here for Ingram. Conner has never played a full season and his highest carry total was 215. If Ingram can clearly beat out Benjamin he could find himself into a pretty good role for Dynasty. Definitely consider him late round 3 or early round 4.

Trestan Ebner, Chicago Bears – 6th round (203rd overall):

-Ebner is a satellite back option who could look to fill the Tarik Cohen role in Chicago. The Bears are set atop their depth chart, so Ebner will need to contribute on special teams to even earn a roster spot. Ebner’s receiving ability does make him at least interesting. If you have extra roster spots to carry until camp, he might be worth taking.

Brittain Brown, Las Vegas Raiders -7th round (250th overall):

-Brown was the number 2 back for UCLA the past 2 years after transferring from Duke. He had explosive plays, but never won the top role. Not only did he get late round draft capital, but this depth chart is extremely crowded right now. Unless Brown has an incredible camp/preseason he’s likely to be a practice squad type guy. Right now there is no dynasty value.

Isaih Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs- 7th round (251st overall):

-Despite being the final back taken, there is a little intrigue here for Pacheco. His college production doesn’t look good stats wise, but he played on a terrible Rutgers offense. His skills and athleticism are better than the numbers. The other intriguing thing about Pacheco is the landing spot. The Chiefs don’t have a great pass catching back on the roster and Pacheo has that upside. Also a year from now the backfield situation potentially opens up. This is definitely a late round stash, but it’s at least worth seeing what he can do in camp/preseason.

 



comments powered by Disqus