Ranking the Landing spots for Rookie Runningbacks for Best Ball

Tier 1:

Teams with elite upside:

Denver Broncos:

The Broncos aren’t likely to get in on the Ashton Jeanty sweepstakes, but they might have the best landing spot in the NFL for a rookie back. The Broncos have a top-tier offensive coach in Sean Payton, who has had some fantastic fantasy rushing seasons in his history as a coach. They have one of the better offensive lines in the league, who excel as run blockers. They have a good young QB, with multiple passing weapons that will keep the chains moving, and keep defenses from stacking the box. Finally, they don’t have much currently invested in the position, so if they draft someone early they could quickly be a workhorse running back.

While I think you can make a case for any team in this tier as the top spot, I think the Broncos are the best combo of coach/offensive line/offensive talent/leading late in games. I do think they are a team to watch for Omarion Hampton or even a Judkins/Henderson in the first round (or trade back to the early 2nd). I’d be pretty surprised if they don’t add a back through the first two rounds.

Chicago Bears:

The Bears currently have D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson on the roster, but I wouldn’t feel too comfortable drafting either one at this point. Ben Johnson has already replaced Swift once in his career, drafting Gibbs in the first round 2 years ago for the Lions. It’s possible that maybe Swift retains a secondary role on the team, but early indications have the Bears drafting a back early in the draft. Either in the first round, or with one of their two early 2nd rounders. I would expect that back to have a clear feature role, and at least one of Swift or Johnson to be off the roster by the time the season starts.

The Bears invested heavily this offseason in upgrading their offensive line, so what was a liability last season appears to be a strength this year. Add in Ben Johnson as the play caller and this landing spot is absolutely fantastic for whomever they take. The Lions have finished in the top 3 in rushing TDs in each of Johnson’s three years as offensive coordinator and no worse than 11th in rushing yards. As a whole the Lions offense was top 5 in total yards and points all three seasons. Assuming 1st or 2nd round draft capital and you have the makings of a top 10 fantasy back.

Oakland Raiders:

There is no question that the Raiders are drafting a running back, and in fact they are the odds on favorite to land Ashton Jeanty in the first round. If not Jeanty in the first I would expect them to grab a back in the 2nd round. The question remains just how good of a landing spot this is? Generally, for a team that finished last season 29th in points and 32nd in yards per attempt, we wouldn’t rank them as a good running back landing spot. But this isn’t last year’s Raiders.

They added Pete Carroll, who not only is a good coach overall, but he’s always been someone who prioritizes the run. Chip Kelly is now the offensive coordinator, and in both the NFL and college has really good results in creating positive running environments. Geno Smith is now the QB, which should allow the Raiders offense to be at least average giving more scoring opportunities. Finally the Raiders offensive line is above average at worst, and could be a strength if a couple guys develop.

With veteran Raheem Mostert as the only real running back competition on this roster, whoever the team drafts is inline for a major role. Jeanty is a homerun selection, but even if they wait until the 2nd round (especially if it’s one of Chip Kelly’s Ohio State backs), this is a fantastic landing spot.

Dallas Cowboys:

The Cowboys added Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders in free agency, but don’t expect that to stop Dallas from addressing the position. This is a clear need, and something that was lacking even last year with Rico Dowdle (who was better than what they currently have). Now unless Ashton Jeanty is there at 12 I wouldn’t expect the Cowboys to draft a back in the first round, but in either the 2nd or 3rd round they could make a significant upgrade to the position.

Depending on what back they select, it could be a clear 3 down role with little threat to their playing time. The Cowboys offensive line is a bit more worrisome than it has been in recent years, and there is a coaching change here, so this isn’t without question marks. With the right back though, you could add a feature back to what can be one of the best offenses in the league. If this Cowboys offense plays like it did in 2023, then the upside here is massive.

Teams with a number 1 back role open:

Cleveland Browns:

While the Browns have bigger needs to figure out at the moment, right now their RB depth chart is a mess. Jerome Ford is the only back with significant experience, and he profiles best as a number 2/satellite back. They might not add one in the first or second round, but with a pair of 3rds and an early 4th they are in position to make a big addition to their roster.

While the Browns offense could be pretty bad again this season, the opening remains high because the lack of competition, as basically whoever they add has a fantastic chance to lead the team in rushing and rushing TDs.

Pittsburgh Steelers:

Though the fantasy community saw the departure of Najee Harris leading to the ascension of Jaylen Warren, the Steelers’ don’t view the situation the same way. Warren has never shown himself to be the majority back on the team, and only hit 15 carries in a game one time in his career. Most beat writers and comments from the team suggest they aren’t done at the position, even after signing Kenneth Gainwell. Pittsburgh is expected to draft a running back early in the draft, and that back in all likelihood ends up the Steelers feature back.

Warren could still retain similar value to what he’s done in the past, but I wouldn’t expect and expanded role for him. He’s done his best work as a change of pace back, and when facing less men in the box. For a guy who only has 6 career TDs in 473 touches, his fantasy outlook might be more capped than most people give him credit for. If the Steelers make the expected investment, than Warren’s ADP is probably too high. Even if Pittsburgh waits until the 4th round they could view that back as a lead option.

Tier 2:

Teams that could look to upgrade and have a positional battle for the starting role:

Washington Commanders:

While there hasn’t been a lot of buzz about it, but the Commanders reporters have repeatedly said that they are in the market for RB upgrades. This is despite retaining all three backs from last season in Brian Robinson Jr., Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols. With not adding anyone in free agency, it appears Washington could select a back early in the draft. Now with only two selections in the top 125 picks, they might not end up taking a back early, but its definitely a possibility to consider. They addressed most of their needs via trades or free agency, so they could consider it a luxury pick.

While Robinson Jr. was serviceable as the lead back, he never really showed upside and in fact he was ceding work at the end to McNichols a journeyman back. Ekeler at this point in his career is probably best served as a true satellite back. That leaves Robinson’s role very much in doubt heading into the season if they draft anyone in the first 4 rounds. Though there will likely be a committee aspect to this team, if they do make a good investment in the position, that could be a strong fantasy asset on one of the better offenses in the league.

Jacksonville Jaguars:

The Jaguars still have Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby on the roster, but those two aren’t going to prevent the Jaguars from upgrading at this position and potentially in a big way. New coach Liam Coen has gotten a ton out of his RBs in the past, and on paper Etienne and Bigsby aren’t perfect fits for him. I can see Jacksonville making a big move early in the draft to get Coen a guy he wants, and Trevor Lawrence a guy who can help take the heat off of him.

Given the uncertainty here I don’t feel great about taking either Etienne or Bigsby. Right now it’s not even clear who of those two are the true “lead” back. Bigsby has shown himself to be a better runner, but he has almost no usage in the passing game. Etienne is a good receiving back, but his rushing ability has been very questionable. Neither feels like value right now in drafts, and I think both are regulated to back-up duty after the draft.

New York Giants:

Tyrone Tracy was a good late-round rookie gem last year, so why am I ranking the Giants in this tier? Well for a couple of reasons. Tracy for as good as he was, it’s not as though he locked himself into a primary feature back role. He showed he could be okay in that role, but he wasn’t exactly making Giants fans forget Saquon Barkley. His profile was always a better fit as a satellite pass catching back, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Giants add a back for more of the lead role. Finally, all the talk is about how the Giants brass needs to win/be competitive to keep their jobs. With an elite rookie RB class, one of the best ways the Giants can upgrade their team at this point is to bolster their backfield talent and production.

Right now Tracy is one of the harder players to draft for me, as I do think the Giants look to upgrade here. If it is a big upgrade, then Tracy is likely being overdrafted by about 30-50 spots. Even with a day 3 draft pick, Tracy might not be completely safe. Say the Giants take someone like Damien Martinez in the 4th. He could be the early down/goalline back and Tracy handles the passing work.

Kansas City Chiefs:

Though the Chiefs have Isaiah Pacheco returning from injury, re-signed Kareem Hunt, and added Elijah Mitchell in free agency, they remain firmly in the mix of the teams that could draft a RB early to compete for the starting role. My sense is that the Chiefs don’t feel that Pacheco is a clear starter, and Hunt and Mitchell are there as insurance and to help form a committee if no one else is added. The Chiefs could still add a running back since it could be one of the most efficient ways to improve their offense.

With defenses fearing the deep ball so much, safeties are playing back, and it’s been a boon to the running game in recent years. Last year a number of playoff teams invested in the RB position (Eagles, Ravens, Packers, and Texans), and it paid off in a major way. I think the Chiefs saw this success and want to make sure they aren’t left behind. If they draft someone in the first 3 rounds, they are being drafted to compete for a starting role, and one that could be a massive fantasy role.

New England Patriots:

The Patriots are arguably the toughest team to place as they could do just about anything given the new coaching staff, some extra picks and the money to eat the dead cap in cutting someone. On the other hand they have two backs on the roster and under contract in Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson, who have both at one point in their careers shown the ability to be a feature back, capable of helping both in the running and passing game.

I ended up deciding to place the Patriots here just because I do think Stevenson’s grip on the lead back job is up in the air. The biggest threat might just be Antonio Gibson who the previous staff was starting to give more opportunities to. If it is a significant investment in the draft (1st-3rd rd), then one of Stevenson or Gibson is replaced. If its just a 4th rounder then maybe only Gibson would have to worry.

My prediction is the Patriots just have too many other big needs to invest highly at RB when you have a pair of capable of backs on the team. While there is potential for a roster battle, I think it’s unlikely.

Teams with a number 2 back role open:

L.A. Chargers:

The Chargers started this offseason as one of the premier landing spots as their depth chart of Hassan Haskins and Kimani Vidal is about as thin as it gets. They made a decent investment signing Najee Harris to a 1 year contract with up to $9M. Though the contract is just for one season and incentive laden, the general sense is that Harris is viewed as the clear starter, and now they need to find a back-up. Harris has shown the ability to be a bell-cow back, and is capable in all areas, but he’s probably at his best as a 60% running back.

In that case the Chargers back-up back could be a pretty decent role with some fantasy upside next season. I would be surprised if they add a running back in the first two rounds, but once you get to round 3, it very much could be on the table.

Cincinnati Bengals:

Right now on paper the Bengals actually look pretty set at RB with Chase Brown as the starter, and Zack Moss and Samaje Perine backing him up. The expectation though is that the Bengals could draft a mid-round RB and release Moss to save a bit of money. If that occurs then I believe this is a good landing spot as the Bengals coaches made two things clear: 1 – they love Chase Brown and 2- they don’t plan on Brown being in position to be a bell-cow back.

Now this doesn’t mean that Brown won’t be a very good fantasy back this year, just that the staff wants to have a solid back-up option so he won’t have to play 80-90% of the snaps like he did the 2nd half of the season. The way I look at it is Brown will be more like a 60% guy, with a back-up getting 30%+ and Perine as the insurance policy. Now if that back-up is Moss then maybe that split is a bit more even between him and Perine, but if the Bengals find the right rookie, that could be a solid number 2 back to target.

Houston Texans:

The Texans don’t have any issue with Joe Mixon as their featured back, but behind him they are returning Ogunbowale and Pierce. Ogunbowale is okay as a 3rd down back, but this is clearly a role that can be improved upon. More likely an early Day 3 option, a rookie could come in and take over the number 2 role on this team. The upside will remained capped as long as Joe Mixon is healthy, but it’s not a bad landing spot overall.

New Orleans Saints:

Alvin Kamara is pretty set as the team’s lead back, and remains a back with top 10 fantasy upside. Behind him, is pretty wide open. Kendre Miller was in the previous regime’s dog house, and between that and injuries he managed just 14 games and 80 carries over two seasons. Even worse, he averaged just 3.8 ypc in that time. With a new coaching staff and such a deep running back class (plus Kamara’s age), I could see a decent investment in the position.

The Saints have two 3rd’s and two 4th’s, so that seems like an area where I’d expect them to invest in the position. Unless they draft one in the 1st or 2nd round I don’t think it impacts Kamara’s stock too much, but if they do grab one in the 3rd or 4th it could bury Miller. The upside here is mixed, but for their to be a lot of fantasy relevance here I think you’d like to see a guy who maybe gets a lot of the goalline work that Taysom Hill handled in the past.

Tier 3:

Teams who could upgrade their number 2 back:

Tennessee Titans:

Tony Pollard seems pretty well set as the lead back, but Tyjae Spears role as the back-up could be on shakier ground. Most thought he would push Pollard for the starting role last season, and that never materialized. He got a little extra work late in the season when Pollard was banged up, but he didn’t really show that he can be an impact player. Remember this was not the coaching staff that drafted him, so now two years removed his stock could be in question.

Now what could save him is the Titans just have so many needs, that back-up RB when they have Pollard might not be at the top of the list. Right now Spears feels overdrafted as any Day 2 or early Day 3 back could really push for this role.

San Francisco 49ers:

The 49ers were always going to draft a running back, the question was would it be a guy in the 3rd round or 6th round. With letting Mitchell go to the Chiefs and trading Jordan Mason, right now it’s pretty thin behind Christian McCaffrey. Second year back, Isaac Guerendo had a solid year filling in when he got the chance. I could see the 49ers use a 3rd or 4th rounder to add some competition.

McCaffrey’s health actually bumps this role up above a couple other teams in this tier. Sure, if he’s basically fully healthy, then neither Guerendo or a rookie will make much of an impact, but if anything happens to CMC, the contingent value is extremely high.

Miami Dolphins:

There is no question that De’Von Achane’s role is set as the lead back (or offensive weapon is probably more accurate). Behind him though there is more of an opportunity. Right now only 2nd year back Jaylen Wright and Alexander Mattison are on the roster. The Dolphins are very likely to draft a back, but the question becomes how high and what type of role.

Two years ago, when this offense was at its pinnacle, they utilized a power back in Raheem Mostert to complement Achane’s open field skills. It made them extremely efficient in the Red Zone and allowed them to wear teams down. Do they add a short yardage specialist? And if so what does that mean for Wright’s chances as the number 2 back? Now if they don’t use a significant investment at the position, does Wright show he’s the clear number 2?

Indianapolis Colts:

Obviously, this is Jonathan Taylor‘s backfield, but after a disappointing season of Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson behind him a year ago, the Colts need to find better options to back up their star running back. They already added one in Khalil Herbert in free agency, but might not be done. I’d be surprised if it was a major investment, but it’s not clear how much faith they have in Herbert.

If you think Herbert will not see major competition, then he might be the best valued contingent RB in drafts right now. You can get him in the 20th round, and he won’t be 100% drafted. Sure he likely won’t have many usable weeks when Taylor is healthy. But any games Taylor misses, and you could have an absolute steal. Herbert has averaged 4.8 yards per carry in his career, and has been a good number 2 back on bad Bears teams in the past.

New York Jets:

On paper, it does appear that the Jets could be more of a Tier 4 team, with a clear number 1 back in Breece Hall and a pair of 2nd-year backs that the team is high on in Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis. The reality is the Jets are maybe the biggest wild card this offseason. They could be anywhere from a team looking to replace their starter, to not even considering adding a rookie RB.

Hall for all his hype and big play ability, hasn’t in three years shown himself to be a consistent feature back. The upside is there, but it just hasn’t fully materialized. Now there are reasons for why, between the injury, coaching staff issues, some OL and QB issues etc., end of the day though its a brand new decision-making team, and they might not want to invest in a back they didn’t bring in. It is still more likely than not, that Hall is the team’s lead back, but there just remains an air of uncertainty here.

Behind Hall, questions are there for Allen and Davis, who were 4th and 5th-round picks a year ago. They did a nice job unseating 2023 4th rounder Abanikanda, but is their role really safe with this new regime? With Hall entering the final year of his rookie deal, I could see the Jets making a 2nd or 3rd round investment to share some work this year and take over in 2026.

Green Bay Packers:

The Packers have no question at the top of their RB depth chart in Josh Jacobs, but the number 2 role is a bit more open. You have Marshawn Lloyd who was a 3rd rounder last year, but never got going and dealt with injuries, competing versus Emmanuel Wilson who filled in nicely in this role last year. While Lloyd has the draft capital, Wilson has the NFL performance. This is probably a good position battle throughout camp this year. The wild card is, do they add another contender with a 3rd-5th round pick?

The Packers draft a RB almost every year, and have taken earlier backs at times when people don’t necessarily expect it in the past. They probably wait till the end of the draft to address the position, but they are a wild card for sure. At the end of the day even if they add someone earlier, it shouldn’t change the outlook for Jacobs one bit.

 

Tier 4:

Teams unlikely to make any real investment:

Arizona Cardinals:

The Cardinals are likely set at RB with James Conner as the lead back and 2nd year back Trey Benson positioned as the back-up. If they wanted to they could find a 2nd or 3rd rd back who could be an upgrade to Benson, but it just doesn’t seem like a priority for the Cardinals this season. Any addition they make is probably a later day 3 guy, who barely sees the field.

L.A. Rams:

The Rams are similar to the Cardinals as they have an established starter with a 2nd year back behind him. They typically draft a RB later in the draft and I could see that trend continue, but I don’t see this as a real landing spot. I’m taking Kyren as the clear starter, and Corum as the clear number 2 back.

Carolina Panthers:

With Chubba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle, the Panthers are likely set at RB. They have two 1,000 yard backs, when a number of teams struggle to find one. A late round pick could enter the mix, but it shouldn’t be a threat to the top two backs in Carolina. I think Hubbard has shown he can be a feature back, but Dowdle could earn a few extra carries beyond just being a contingent value back.

Teams that are basically set at RB:

(no particular order): Bills, Ravens, Eagles, Lions, Vikings, Falcons, Buccaneers, Seahawks

Not going to do individual write-ups on these teams, but all appear to be pretty well set at RB for the 2025 season, with a clear starter and second back. In some cases even the 3rd back is pretty well set. There is always a chance that a value pick is made or just a 6th-7th round guy who is mainly viewed as a special teamer. Unfortunately outside of trades or injuries any backs taken by these teams are very unlikely to make an impact.