Running Back Free Agents and How to Value them for Best Ball

How are you handling the running back free agents or cut/trade candidates? With murky situations for these RBs, this is how I’m handling each player.

RB Free Agents:

Aaron Jones:

Jones is coming off a 17-game season, during which he had over 1,500 combined yards and 7 TDs for the Vikings. He got banged up and wasn’t utilized as much down the stretch, but overall, it was promising to see him not miss time.

Jones will turn 31 during the season, but he remains a reliable back when healthy. This season marked just the third time in his eight-year career that he was healthy for every game, missing 2-6 games in the other five seasons.

Jones should have a decent market for a 2-3 year deal, and can still be a 50-60% back, and a fantasy weapon. The issue is where will he land. If it’s back with the Vikings then he probably can pay off his RB 28 (ADP 89) price tag. Last year Jones finished as 16th in total points and RB 20th in points per game, so there is still some value regardless of how you look at it.

So far I’m taking him some, not so much a knock on him, just that there are other players in that range I prioritize. If he’s back with the Vikings or has another good landing spot, I will absolutely start taking him more.

Najee Harris:

Harris is the running back everyone loves to hate, but the facts don’t back up that disdain. Harris has been a 4-year starter, and hasn’t missed a single game in his career. This has led him to be a 1,000-yard back and at least a minimum of 181 fantasy points in every season. Harris can be a capable starter, and at least a 50% back like he’s been in Pittsburgh.

He’s young, he’s healthy, he’s been a solid runner, can operate as a short yardage back and is decently effective as a pass catcher. While he gets knocked for his lack of “big play” ability, he actually generates 15+ yard runs at a respectable clip. What he lacks is the ability to turn those into 40, 50, and 60+ yard gains.

Whether he’s back with the Steelers in his current role or on another team, he’s a good bet to finish in that RB 20-30 range, so you are even getting some value at RB 36. For me, I am drafting him a decent amount, because he’s got a safer projection than a number of backs taken after ADP 100. He’s likely to remain a strong floor play, vs a high ceiling, but you need guys like that if you hope to advance to the playoffs.

J.K. Dobbins:

Dobbins had his healthiest season since 2020 playing in 13 games, and had over 1,000 combined yards and 9 TDs. He still obviously carries some long-term injury risk, so his free-agent market should be muted.

On the positive side, that probably makes it even more likely that he stays in LA with the Chargers. This is probably the best outcome for him, and could really help pay off his ADP of 102. I would still expect the Chargers to add a back in the draft, but Dobbins should at least be a 50% player with the Chargers.

I’m currently taking him a decent amount, as he definitely has more value than a few backs in this range. If he does come back to the Chargers I’ll be even more excited and look to increase my exposure.

Rico Dowdle:

It took a little while, but Dowdle had a bit of a breakout down the stretch for the Cowboys. He ended up a 1,000 yard rusher, and had 178.3 fantasy points. Dowdle had only 5 total TDs, but some of that can be attributed to the split role, and the issues on offense (OL and QB).

The problem is, what do we do with Dowdle in free agency. The Cowboys reportedly want him back, but even if they do re-sign him, they are likely to bring in some serious competition. Probably more likely he signs with another team, but what will his role be?

With such a talented RB draft class, he could find himself in a situation where his outlook diminishes after the draft. Right now though his ADP of 138.3 is palable enough to account for that outcome.

I’m drafting him right now at a decent clip, but I would worry if he gets a “favorable” landing spot and his ADP rises.

Javonte Williams:

Williams is someone who is still being drafted (ADP 181.9) due to his age and original NFL Draft capital. Unfortunately, I don’t think the realities of who he currently is warrant selecting him much in Best Ball.

Prior to his knee injury, Williams looked like he might have a bright career, but it just hasn’t happened. Over the past two seasons he’s averaged just 3.6 and 3.7 yards per carry. In over 600 career carries he has just 11 TDs and in 158 receptions he’s averaged just 6.1 yards per catch and another 5 TD.

I’m sure he will catch on with some NFL team, but it might be very much as a 3rd back. It’s tough to imagine any NFL team sees a major role for him right now.

He’s someone I’m basically completely avoiding in Best Ball, until he goes in more like the 20th round range.

Kareem Hunt:

I understand that he’s getting older and is slower than he used to be, but he’s still an NFL capable running back. In 13 games (8 starts), Hunt had 900 combined yards and 7 TDs, good for 144 fantasy points.

Sure he likely won’t have a landing spot with that kind of role in 2025, but he’s a guy who even in injury years, he’s gotten 99-111 fantasy points in the previous three seasons. He’s capable both as a goalline back and a solid receiver out of the backfield.

He’s not a guy to overdraft, especially right now. But as an option in the 20th round of drafts, he warrants some consideration.

Raheem Mostert:

The Dolphins have already cut Mostert, but he’s someone to watch as free agency begins. Yes, he’s coming off an injury filled season and is older, but he’s a 20th round guy, who is just one year removed from 255 UD points.

Sure that 2023 season won’t be replicated, but he’s a guy with power and speed. In the right landing spot, he could get 100-125 fantasy points as a 30-40% player.

Cam Akers:

Cam Akers is one of the more interesting names out there. He’s a former 2nd round pick, who at 26 is one of the youngest options. He’s coming off a productive year as the Vikings’ number 2 back, and only played with the team for the final 3/4 of the season.

It’s doubtful he will be viewed as a starter, but he could be a 35-40% player for a team and carve out a role that gives you a number of usable weeks. For a 20th-round guy that’s pretty solid.

A Vikings reunion would probably be the ideal landing spot, but if he signs anywhere with a little guaranteed money attached, you have to imagine he’s going to have a role.

RB Cut/Trade Candidates:

D’Andre Swift:

Swift is unlikely to be outright cut with his contract, but it’s notable that with Ben Johnson taking over he might not be in the team’s plans.

Two years ago, despite Swift being on a cheap rookie contract for another year, the Lions signed David Montgomery in Free Agency and drafted Jahmyr Gibbs in the 1st round. Will Johnson do something similar this year? If the Bears were to trade Swift, they would also save $6.6M against the cap.

Swift is a solid fantasy producing running back, and if he gets traded I could see him paying off his 107.5 ADP. If he stays in Chicago, you will always have to worry about him being stuck in the dog house and not getting the opportunities.

Brian Robinson Jr./Austin Ekeler:

Robinson and Ekeler did fine in Kingsbury’s offense, but this pair was average at best, and they were seeing their production matched by journeyman Jeremy McNichols.

Washington is expected to add a back this offseason, which could allow for either one or two of these backs to be off the roster. Ekeler (assuming he doesn’t retire) has the safer bet to have a fantasy viable role.

Travis Etienne Jr./Tank Bigsby:

Not clear that either of these backs are getting traded, but it might be the only way they find a valuable role. The Jaguars are highly expected to add at least one back this offseason, and it could be someone basically handed the top role.

Zach Charbonnet:

There has been no real buzz about this so far, but as a former 2nd RD pick of a previous staff, he could be someone that’s moved. Charbonnet showed last year that when given an opportunity he can produce, but he’s also pretty entrenched behind Walker.

Right now he’s going a little high as he mainly has contingent value. If a trade materializes though, and he’s looking at more of a 50/50 role he could get pretty interesting.