Receivers on bad offenses = Beware in Best Ball

When it comes to drafting receivers in best ball drafts, one key area that can get overlooked is the quality of the offense that they are on. No one questions the talent of a player like Garrett Wilson, but when Aaron Rodgers went down that offense plummeted and he finished as WR 31 overall and 39th in points per game. Now that was a situation that we couldn’t predict, but there are players ae weaker offenses that we make a reasonable assumption for how good they can be.

This impacts whether or not a player can pay off his ADP price and how much he can exceed it. In best ball, if you are choosing between two players and it would be WR 25, and one guy might be able to reach WR 20, but the other could be a top 15 WR then you should generally take the higher upside player in almost every instance. While a lot can happen throughout the season, we can at least guesstimate what offenses will be good or not, and if some of their top WRs are being taken in an appropriate range.

Receivers to avoid:

Malik Nabers (ADP: 25.2):

Given the nature of the Giants offense Nabers would be in one of the top 2 categories no matter what, but it’s his crazy high ADP that has it extremely hard to select him in the late 2nd/early 3rd round. The Giants passing offense isn’t exactly an exciting prospect, and even two years ago when Daniel Jones was healthy they finished bottom 10 in every major category. Nabers might have an outsized role, but it is going to be difficult for that to pay off this crazy high ADP. Even if he does pay off this ADP, does he have the ceiling of Mike Evans, Brandon Aiyuk, or Devonta Smith? No not really. Those players play with far better QBs, in far better offenses.

Jakobi Myers (ADP: 119.3):

Myers is a solid receiver and should fairly clearly be the Raiders number 2 WR, though Tre Tucker could push him a little bit. The problem is Brock Bowers is probably the Raiders’ true number 2 option, and if he takes on an outsized target share, after Davante Adams already has an outsized target share, how much is left for Myers. The Raiders passing attack is easily one of the more questionable units entering the season, and it wouldn’t be shocking if it’s bottom 10 or even bottom 5 in a number of key categories. The other area where Myers takes a hit is in the Red zone. Last year Myers had 8 TDs, but Adams was a bit down with only having 8 himself, and no TE really stepped up. Bowers could have a big TD role, and even 2nd year Michael Mayer could see more RZ usage.

Jerry Jeudy (ADP: 123.5):

The Browns offense is one that I’m worried about from a passing standpoint, Jacoby Brissett and Joe Flacco have bolstered their overall rankings the past two seasons, and now Watson is coming back from a major injury. Jeudy is clearly behind both Cooper and Njoku and he has a number of young receivers pushing for work behind him. As part of a passing offense that is a bit questionable, I’m just not spending a pick in the 10th/11th round on a guy like that.

Receivers I’m wary of, but still drafting:

Michael Pittman Jr. (ADP: 35.7):

It’s easy to get excited about the Colts offense as a whole, but a lot of that is due to the fact that they likely will have the top rushing offense in the league. Richardson and Taylor are also expected to dominate red zone looks, and could make TDs harder to stack up for a guy like Pittman. Assuming Richardson stays healthy, the Colts will likely be among the league’s lowest in passing attempts, that just makes it tougher for Pittman to exceed value here.

Pittman is probably being overdrafted as is, as multiple receivers taken after him have a higher ceiling, and many a safer floor as well. He still could hit value, which is why I don’t mind selecting him (especially if I can land Richardson later), but I don’t expect him to massively outperform this ADP.

Amari Cooper (ADP: 41):

Cooper finished the year on a massive high note, but that was also with Joe Flacco and a Browns passing offense that was throwing the ball more. Now with Watson back under center, and coming off an injury, that passing rate has some risk of going back down. Also, Watson’s accuracy and efficiency have been a concern. Cooper can still return value at this spot, but I don’t see a ton of upside, unless Watson returns to his Texans production levels.

Terry McLaurin (ADP: 51.7):

McLaurin talent-wise wise might be a top 15-20 WR, but he’s just not had the QB play to support that. Last year he was even in a high-volume offense (led the league in attempts) with decent TDs, yet that still didn’t translate to a major fantasy season (WR 32 overall, 42 PPG).

This year it’s a new offense under Kliff Kingsbury, but the team is breaking in a rookie QB. Jayden Daniels is also apt to run at the first sign of trouble, and Washington might have the worst OL in the league. I don’t see Washington’s pass attempts anywhere near the top of the league this season.

Then it becomes a question of how good is Daniels and what will the TD rate of the team be. McLaurin is kinda of safe though as you know he will lead the team in targets and should finish somewhere close to his value in ADP. The upside though is pretty questionable.

Diontae Johnson (ADP: 67.7):

A couple of weeks ago Johnson was more in the “Guys I’m willing to bet on” category, but he’s seen his ADP move from the low 80’s to the late 60’s. There is still value to be had here as last year’s top Panther’s receiver Adam Thielen finished as WR25 (Johnson is currently going as WR 39), but it’s getting thinner. While I do like the Panthers offense to be much better this year, it’s far from a given, and there is more competition for targets this season. I think Johnson can pay off his ADP in a below-average Panthers offense, but for major value either he will really need to dominate targets or Panthers offense is more middle of the pack.

Jordan Addison (ADP: 87.9):

Ignoring any potential suspension issues, I’m wary of Addison more due to what his upside can be. Addison is relying on Sam Darnold now to get him his fantasy points. That in some ways is an improvement as we now have a clearer picture of the Vikings plan, now that McCarthy is out for the year. If McCarthy was healthy he would have taken over the starting role at some point, which probably would have led to more conservative playcalling.

With Darnold, HC Kevin O’Connell will probably be as aggressive as always. It’s still a downgrade from Kirk Cousins, but at least the volume is probably safe. Addison’s upside worries me, especially later in the season, when T.J. Hockenson returns from injury. Jefferson and Hockenson could both see a lot of work, leaving Addison as a less secure play. I still think he can hit value, just not sold how much he can exceed it.

Courtland Sutton (ADP: 95.8):

It’s likely that the Broncos will have rookie Bo Nix at QB for most of the season, which I expect to be a decent downgrade from Russell Wilson. Sutton though is the unquestionable number 1 receiver and on a team that doesn’t have a TE that figures to earn a large number of targets. Sutton last year saw most of his value in the Red Zone, but given how good he was, why would Sean Payton not utilize him there.

I expect him to see more targets this year and it’s more a matter of how good the offense is overall, as to how much Sutton can overcome his ranking. If he was going 25-30 picks higher, I’d be much more wary of him and maybe even avoid him. But where he’s at now I think he’s safe, but limited.

Receivers I’m willing to bet on:

Davante Adams (ADP: 22.4):

The Raiders are one of the passing offenses that I question the most entering this season, but what I don’t question is Davante Adams. Adams has averaged over 10 targets a game every year going back to 2018, and that includes the last two seasons in Las Vegas. That kind of volume, regardless of who is throwing the football is tough to comeback in today’s NFL.

With some hope that not only will Adams get the same target share, but that he will get more on target and types of throws that fit his style in this system, he does even have a little chance to exceed value. What also helps is his Red Zone ability is arguably the best in the league. If the Raiders embrace that more this season, he can still get 8-12 TDs, even on a bad offense.

George Pickens (ADP: 45.4):

Last season the Steelers receivers overall were disappointing, which is not surprising considering the team managed just 13 passing TDs all season. Pickens redeemed himself in drafters eyes with a great playoff run, but he struggled to help advance your teams to the playoffs with how questionable this offense was a year ago. Now the Steelers have an upgrade at OC, QB, and along the offensive line.

As long as Brandon Aiyuk doesn’t end up getting traded here I don’t see any real issue of Pickens not hitting value. Though not likely the highest volume passing attack, I would expect the Steelers to see an increase in both passing yards and TDs in this new offense. Pickens should be the biggest beneficiary and can pretty decently exceed his ADP.

Calvin Ridley & DeAndre Hopkins (ADP: 56.5 & 90.6):

We’ve talked about Ridley, Hopkins and the new look Titans a lot this offseason, but their prices remain reasonable. This was a bottom 5 passing offense last year and should improve from that mark considerably given the new philosophy and personnel. Ridley and Hopkins are priced at a point where both can not only return value but considerably exceed value if this Titans offense finishes more like middle of the pack.

Hopkins in particular has slid due to an injury that likely won’t cost him a single game this season. I’m continuing to draft both with regularity and have little overall concern of them not hitting value.

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