Will the Malik Nabers Hype Bubble Burst?

August 13, 2024

Best Ball Fantasy Football Fantasy Football

Steve Shoup

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If someone were to make the argument that a 1st round rookie receiver is being drafted way too high in Underdog Best Ball drafts, one would probably assume it was Marvin Harrison Jr. Many feel that despite his draft status, and clear role as the Cardinals’ number 1 receiver, Harrison isn’t worthy of being taken at ADP 13.6, routinely over the likes of Drake London, Deebo Samuel and Nico Collins.

While that is a fair and rational argument, we don’t see that same argument being played out with the next rookie receiver Malik Nabers who is going essentially a round later at ADP 25.6. Nabers is going at the same spot as Mike Evans and ahead of Brandon Aiyuk, DeVonta Smith, and DK Metcalf.

Of the two, Nabers has the greater risk, and the opportunity cost is pretty similar, yet the narrative is very different. For a rookie WR to be successful and really be elite (i.e. a top 20 WR), you need a few things: elite talent, positive TD equity, an outsized opportunity, a top QB, and a top offense.

Talent:

Now both Harrison Jr. and Nabers have the talent down no question. Nabers would have been the top WR taken in just about every draft of the last 10 years outside of this one and 2021 with Ja’Marr Chase.

They also should both lead their team in targets and get well above 120 targets as a rookie. Of the two Harrison will likely have more targets, as the Arizona offense should throw more. Generally, overall it could be fairly close within 10-15 targets.

Touchdown Equity:

Regarding positive TD equity, Harrison has the big frame and Red zone ability that every team craves. His two seasons as a starter at Ohio State he paced the team with 14 TDs. His skill set should have no problem transferring to the NFL, and if he stays healthy he should easily have 8-12 TDs this year.

Naber’s skill set isn’t as clear-cut as that of a major TD producer. He drew a lot of comparisons in the pre-draft process to D.J. Moore. Moore has never had more than 8 TDs, and it took until his 5th season before he had more than 4 TDs. In college Nabers did get 14 TDs this past season, but that was 2nd on the team to Brian Thomas Jr., and his previous year as a starter he only had 3 TDs.

So it’s not clear that Nabers will have a massive TD role, especially as a rookie. Many of his TDs will probably need to come from outside of the Red Zone, which is so much tougher to predict in terms of fantasy.

Quarterback Play:

Where the difference becomes unquestionable is a top-tier QB and offense. Both the Cardinals and Giants missed their QB for the majority of last season, and Arizona finished above New York in both points and yards. Now with Kyler Murray fully healthy, Harrison has a major advantage at who is throwing him the ball.

Both Kyler Murray and Daniel Jones were 1st round picks in 2019, and in that time Murray has put up better statistical numbers in every category. Completion % 66.6 vs 64.3

TD% 4.2 vs 3.3

YPA 7.0 vs 6.6

Yards per Game 240.7 vs 208.5

These are the numbers that are going to matter whether or not one of these receivers can meet the value of their ADP. Why again are we worried about Harrison, but not Nabers with the far worse QB outlook?

On top of that Jones will be coming back from an ACL injury, which could lead to him having some rust early in the season. Kyler came back from his major injury mid-season last year so he is good to go. The Cardinals’ offensive line is expected to be better, and with more quality weapons, Arizona’s offense figures to be in scoring position more as well. The Cardinals offense should be more efficient leading to more targets (as mentioned above), but that leads to more yards and for a guy with a clear Red Zone role, more TDs.

Summary:

Overall I’m not in love with Harrison’s draft ADP, and usually only take him when he slides a couple of picks. While I think he’s a little overdrafted, I can at least see the pieces come together for him to be a top 10 Fantasy WR to pay off his ADP. He’s got the QB, opportunity, and likely TD equity to hit if it all breaks his way.

The issue I have with Nabers is I just don’t see him being a couple of spots overdrafted, but more like a round and a half +. In that offense, with that QB, it’s tough to imagine that a receiver with Nabers skillset drastically outperforms, particularly in the TD department. We’ve seen this too often lately where young stud rookie WRs like Garrett Wilson and Drake London, look great on paper, but they can’t produce massive fantasy numbers because their weaker QB/offense holds them back. And those players weren’t being drafted nearly as high as Nabers in Best Ball.

The risk is just too high here, and the opportunity cost not only of other top wide receivers, but great running backs as well. That early third round is just too much to risk investing in the Giants’ top receiver. Yet despite all the warning signs the Nabers hype will not die.

I don’t like betting against his talent, but I’m not also going to invest that highly into what is expected to be one of the weaker offenses in the league. For me, I will remain out on Nabers at this price.