5 Running Backs going too high in Underdog Drafts

*Some of these players might still be viable in the right build/stack, but these are the players I feel are generally going too high in Underdog Best Ball drafts.

James Cook (ADP: 56):

Now Cook is an example of a player who in the right build/stack I can be more on board with him around his ADP. So if you are doing a full Bills onslaught or as a bring-back pick to Garrett Wilson/Breece Hall, I’m more on board with selecting Cook. It’s as a stand-alone back that I have more concerns with Cook.

Cook last season finished as RB 10 overall, but was 17 in points per game. So taking him as RB 13 does lead to some natural questions if we are valuing him properly. On the positive side he is the unquestioned lead back, who also gets passing work, from one of the top offenses in the league. The concern is Cook’s TD equity is the lowest of any back in the top 24. Cook had just two rushing TDs in 237 carries last year. And things weren’t any better in the postseason as he had 0 TD on 36 carries in two games. He did add four receiving TDs which really buoyed him, but receiving TDs for RBs can be a bit more fluky.

Even in a top-tier offense where he gets a lot of combined yards and catches, Cook will struggle to maintain this ranking/ADP unless his TD role expands. If he loses any receiving TDs without replacing them on the ground, it could be a big problem. Him being a part of an elite offense is his saving grace, and the hope is that he can get a few extra TDs to payoff and exceed his ADP. I just would prefer him to be taken roughly a round and a half later.

Aaron Jones (ADP:80.3):

Jones is one of the most explosive backs when he’s healthy and on the field, he has a career 5.0 ypc and has never been below 4.6 in a season. He is also a good receiver out of the backfield and will add a decent number of fantasy points that way. So why should we be hesitant to take him at this spot?

Jones has dealt with some injuries the last few seasons, missing 2-5 games in three of the last four seasons. Even without the injuries Jones has looked like more of a part-time player of late seeing his carries per game dip below 13 in each of those seasons. His TD role has also been muted, as he has just 8 combined TDs on the ground over those three seasons. Add in the concern that he’s going from Packers led offenses of Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love to a Vikings offense that will be led by either Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy (to say nothing of a more questionable offensive line).

Now perhaps the Vikings will look to use Jones more this season, particularly near the goalline, but it is far from a guarantee, and in a lesser offense better usage might just end up being a wash. Jones is still being taken in a range where there are pretty clear lead backs with strong TD roles. He feels like he should probably be more in line with guys like Tony Pollard, Zack Moss, and Brian Robinson Jr. and those guys are going 1.5-2 rounds later.

Jonathon Brooks (ADP: 91.8):

Brooks is still recovering from a torn ACL last November, and thus far has not returned to action. While reports on his recovery are solid, the Panthers have also made it clear they aren’t going to rush him back. Even if he would be active to start the season (highly unlikely), the Panthers aren’t going to give him a major workload. While the hope of drafters is you land an explosive back for the 2nd half/playoffs of your fantasy season, the Panthers may be cautious all season.

Barring some major surprise this Panthers team likely won’t be in contention for a Playoff spot, so how much are they going to risk their young talented back to finish 6-11. Brooks could be on a snap count for the entire year. He still could have some good fantasy games in that situation, but it probably caps both the number of them and his having ultimate ceiling-type games. With other backs who are more locked into good roles and likely for the entire season drafted around him, Brooks is a tough click coming from one of the worst offenses in the league.

Javonte Williams (ADP: 110.7):

Williams has looked better at camp according to reports, but this is still probably the messiest RB situation in the league and one that I want to be underweight on at this ADP. Williams is coming off a season where he averaged just 3.6 yards per carry, and managed just 3 rushing TDs on over 200 carries. In addition to continuing to split work with Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine, the Broncos added 5th round rookie Audric Estime. Even if Perine is potentially cut, McLaughlin will cut into any passing game work, and Estime could see most of the work inside the 5-10 yard line.

So even if Williams improves as a runner this season, he could be used similarly to James Cook, but with only about half the passing game work. Not to mention he is apart from a much worse total offense, so the upside is limited. If I’m going to bet on an uncertain backfield I’d rather take shots on the Dallas or Browns backs, since their upside in those offenses are much higher. The Chargers are another pair of backs that you can take a shot on, that should be in a better situation. Williams isn’t an awful pick if he ends up the clear starter again, but it will be hard for him to exceed value unless he gets a more defined role.

Trey Benson (ADP: 118.7):

Benson got a lot of hype once he was drafted in the early 3rd round, but the noise never seemed to make sense. Sure it was a solid draft investment in the position, but keep in mind the Cardinals had a bunch of extra picks, so they could make more luxury selections. Benson was never a real threat to James Conner for the starting role, TD role, or even the passing game role. Best case scenario is he offers injury upside and gets 5-10 touches a game. So taking him in the top 12 rounds always has felt like a stretch.

While he’s still listed as the Cardinals number 2 back, camp reports have not been strong for Benson. Emari Demercado has been having a really strong camp, and has actually been the back to spell Conner with the starters so far. So Benson might be in a fight for a number 2 role on a team that outside of injury shouldn’t have that much value. There are numerous backs with far more defined or upside roles being taken in the next couple of rounds. Ideally, Benson should be selected about 3-4 rounds later, where other contingent value backs or upside backs are going. Given his tenuous hold on even the back-up role I won’t be selecting much of him this season.