Taking Advantage of undefined WR rooms for Best Ball – AFC South

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Houston Texans- Nico Collins (ADP- 18.1), Stefon Diggs (ADP-31.4), Tank Dell (ADP- 34.3)

The Texans are a tough situation because overall this looks like a bright young offense, that should be top 10 if not top 5 in the league in scoring and yards. So of course we want not only Stroud and WR stacks, but we want these WRs on their own as well. The issue is they are priced up to a point where it can make it hard for all or more than one to hit value.

Nico Collins Collins is the most likely Texans WR1, and if he does end up clearly in that role than he should pay off this high ADP. Last season was a breakout performance, and things are likely to get better in year two of Stroud and this offense. The only real risk is if none of the 3 WRs really establish themselves as an “Alpha”.

Stefon Diggs Diggs comes over in a trade from the Bills and will likely slide into the number 2 role on this team. While the end of the year closed poorly in Buffalo, he still finished the year 10th in total .5 ppr points. The price is a little high with Collins ahead of him and Dell pushing him from behind. I think people try to bury Diggs too much, so he will slide some, but this is still a high ADP given the role being compressed.

Tank Dell- Dell was an explosive 3rd round rookie, and a fantastic spike week guy for Best Ball last year. Unfortunately, he is coming off a major leg injury, and is now dealing with some serious extra competition from Diggs (as well as Collins). If he ends up as the WR3 or even splitting the WR2/3 role with Diggs, it will be tough to pay off this ADP. If he does leapfrog Diggs and is the clear cut WR2 then you get a little value here.

Advice: Take all three, but Collins is the only one I completely trust. Diggs and Dell are kind of contingent of each other. It’s going to be next to impossible for both to “succeed” so for one to be a success the other one will need to be a disappointment.

 

Indianapolis Colts- Michael Pittman Jr. (ADP-33.4), Adonai Mitchell (ADP-116), Josh Downs (ADP- 131.4), Alec Pierce (ADP- 215.9)

The Colts’ situation is tough because we believe the offense is going to be top-tier, and Anthony Richardson is potentially a top 5 QB. The problem is who do we stack with him?

Pittman is fine at his ADP, though there probably isn’t a ton of room for him to exceed value. Even last year he finished as WR 15 overall and 19th in points per game, and that was with potentially a QB who was more accurate in Minshew and maybe even threw more. It’s tough to get a full barometer of Richardson, but so much of his fantasy value last year, was tied to his legs. He didn’t attempt a lot of passes even in his full games. Despite some volume concerns, Pittman isn’t the one to worry about in this offense.

I think Mitchell’s ADP is the most out of place here as it’s not even clear he will fully have the opposite starting role from Pittman. Yes, he was a 2nd round pick and a value at that in the NFL draft, but he’s a raw talent, and his skill set does resemble that of Pierce’s as a taller deep ball WR. Mitchell has far more upside, but Pierce could eat into his role especially early in the season. It would be surprising if Mitchell ends up 2nd on this team in targets, and unless he really dominates RZ looks, his scoring potential could be limited.

Downs showed a lot of promise as a rookie, and despite some volume concerns, his ADP protects you from losing too much value in case the volume isn’t there or Mitchell takes on a larger role. I do think there is a real chance he outplays this ADP. He had nearly 100 targets as a rookie and managed just 2 TDs, that should hopefully improve a bit and with Richardson, while the accuracy may suffer, the depth of target could increase.

Advice: Pittman is the primary option and should be someone you are grabbing on the regular. I do worry about him being able to exceed his ADP, but he should at least hit value. Downs looks like a nice mid-round target as a strong 5th or 6th WR option. Mitchell feels too overpriced for me, given the role and nature of the offense.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars- Christian Kirk (ADP- 43), Brian Thomas (ADP- 72.2), Gabe Davis (ADP- 132)

The Jaguars are similar to the Texans where they are a potential top 10 (or even higher offense) with three WRs we want to target, the difference here is they are not overpriced. In fact, they might be underpriced as a whole, and an area where we can get some real value. Now one thing to keep in mind is TE Evan Engram probably will take on a larger role than say Dalton Schultz, but even still, there are going to be plenty of opportunities for these top 3 WRs.

Christian Kirk Kirk has the highest ADP, and he has the most experience in general and with Trevor Lawrence. I have some concern that he might not end up WR 1, but even as a high-end WR2 he can pay off this ADP. Through the first 12 weeks before he got injured last year, Kirk was WR 23 despite Calvin Ridley being the top option on the team. So he can pay off this role, but whether or not he has major upside is dictated by if you think he’s the top guy or not.

Brian Thomas- Thomas is a first-round rookie, with the skill set to be a true X WR, a guy who just dominates on the outside with his size/speed combo. If he and Lawrence get on the same page quickly, he could be the top option on this team, providing massive value especially if he’s the top TD scorer.

Gabe Davis- Davis probably has no chance of being the top WR on the Jags, but he could be WR2, and he’s historically been a great “better in best ball” type of receiver with multiple good spike weeks. The fact that you can get him in the 11th or 12 round is pretty strong. He won’t hit your line-up every week and isn’t the type of guy you can count on if you have some major injuries with your top WRs, but when he hits you will see some big value.

Advice: This is one of my favorite teams to target because it feels like all three WRs can hit value and have the upside to exceed it, which is very rare. It’s not even contingent on another one failing or getting injured. As long as the Jags offense is in the top 10 range, these receivers are good picks. Kirk is the safest for sure, while Thomas probably has the biggest upside. Davis should really only be seen as a like a spike week guy, but there is value in that.

 

Tennessee Titans- Calvin Ridley (ADP- 56.2), DeAndre Hopkins (ADP- 67.9), Tyler Boyd (ADP- 202.5)

Arguably no team is expected to have a bigger offensive make-over than the Titans this season. They go from an extremely run-heavy, Derrick Henry-led offense, to a pass-first, air-it-out attack.

Brian Callahan takes over as the Head Coach and likely primary play caller, and Will Levis should see plenty of support from better weapons, offensive philosophy, and a far better OL. Even if he’s a below-average QB, the opportunity will be there for him to produce fantasy points, which means we should be looking at his wide receivers. There is a lot of value right now where they are being drafted and can be a great addition to any best ball team to get a piece of this passing offense.

Calvin Ridley- Early reports have him taking the “Ja’Marr Chase” role in this offense, and whether that is true or not, if the Titans pass anything close to what the Bengals have in recent years Ridley can return serious value as the WR1 or 2 in this offense. He ended last year as WR 17 on the Jags, and is going as WR 35. Even in points per game, he was WR 26 last year, and a lot of that was due to a slow start. If he is the clear-cut number 1 he will crush this ADP, and if it’s a split role or he’s number 2, he can still hit value.

DeAndre Hopkins Last year Hopkins was WR22 and is currently going as WR40. His WR22 ranking is more impressive considering the Titans finished 29th or 30th in attempts, yards, and TDs. His 7 receiving TDs represented half of all the Titans passing TDs (and 2 were thrown by Derrick Henry). Yes, Calvin Ridley is added to the mix this year, and perhaps he will be the top WR, but don’t count out Hopkins. This might be a split situation. Even in a case where Hopkins is the clear-cut WR2, he can exceed this value pretty clearly.

Tyler Boyd Boyd is no real threat to Ridley or Hopkins, but he does offer major value as a guy who you can easily still get in the 17th or 18th round. He is familiar with this offensive system and has been a top 50 WR the last 3 years in Cincy, despite being behind a pair of top receivers. Also if either Ridley or Hopkins were to miss time, he can see his role expanded.

Advice- Take plenty of both Ridley and Hopkins. Not only can you easily take Levis as your QB 3 late, but the upside here is huge. Right now the market is pushing Ridley as the clear cut WR1, and while I like him a lot, it’s probably more like a 60% chance that he has that role. In the case of a split role or Hopkins finishing as the top WR, you get even better value by taking him. So I’m trying to balance my exposure of the two. I also like adding on Boyd late in drafts as a safe WR 7 or 8 in the build.


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