Top 10 Offenses I’m Targeting in Best Ball at Various Prices
Check out Steve’s Underdog Fantasy Best Ball Rankings!
Finding the right offenses to stack in best ball drafts is key to success, which goes for various price points throughout the draft. Last year, if you had a lot of access to 49ers, Dolphins, Cowboys, Ravens, and Lions stacks, you probably had a successful best ball season. Couple that if you were able to find value in team stacks like the Rams, Packers, and Texans, then you were really cooking.
Team-level correlation and stacking up a team in best ball at various positions is one of my biggest priorities in best ball drafts. Of course, I’m going to mix in team stacks at some level from most NFL teams with the amount of drafts I’m doing. But I’ll want to lean heavier into certain teams to make stands or be overweight on certain teams.
Also, I’ve mentioned this in my articles and shows before, but when I say team-level correlation or team stacks, I’m usually talking about 2-4 players with or without the quarterback.
I look at various factors when deciding which teams I like the most. Here are the factors I analyzed to find my favorite team stacks in best ball:
–Last year’s total offense results via ProFootballReference
-Projected Total Points for 2024 – see tweet from Connor Allen of 4for4 Football
-Best Ball Playoff Schedule – see Fanspeak’s Playoff Charts for Totals, Dome/Conditions, etc
-Coaching or Personnel Changes – see Fanspeak Network’s show on Offensive Coordinator changes
-Draft Capital – total cost for 2-4 players
As I mentioned above, Connor Allen of 4for4 Football did a great Twitter thread for spreads and totals for all 2024 NFL games. See his tweet below, but its a good way to visualize the top projected offenses for the 2024 NFL season.
Sportsbooks released spreads and totals for EVERY game of the 2024 NFL Season!
Using those, we can calculate which teams are projected to be the HIGHEST & LOWEST scoring teams this year.
I found 6 stats you should leverage for betting, fantasy football, & more (Part 2):
— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) June 10, 2024
So with all the factors mentioned, here are my top 10 teams I’m targeting most this best ball season:
*I broke it into three categories based on total capital cost – Expensive, Mid-Priced, and Cheap Value.
EXPENSIVE STACKS:
1 – San Francisco 49ers:
-Highest projected points for 2024
-Had the 3rd most points in 2023
-Same personnel/coaches
-Elite best ball playoff schedule – all indoors or in California with high projected game totals
Summary: You have to pay for this team stack, but it should be worth it again this season. QB Brock Purdy has an ADP of 110 on Underdog Fantasy, but all his weapons go from 1-66 (current ADP).
2 – Detroit Lions:
-2nd Highest projected points for 2024
-Had the 5th most points in 2023
-Same personnel/coaches and potential breakout year for WR Jameson Williams (fairly priced)
-Great best ball playoff schedule outside of Week 16 in Chicago
Summary: Another team you’ll have to spend up for, as all weapons have an ADP of 6-84. QB Jared Goff‘s ADP is 125. I don’t mind stacking up the cheaper pieces on this team like RB David Montgomery and WR Jameson Williams.
3 – Kansas City Chiefs:
-3rd Highest projected points for 2024
-Added WR Marquise Brown (free agency) and WR Xavier Worthy (NFL Draft 1st Round pick) to the elite offense of Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and RB Isiah Pacheco
Summary: The Chiefs offense had a down season for their standards, but the additions to this elite offensive core should make the Chiefs offense tough to stop. Add to the fact that we are paying much less for Mahomes and Kelce than we did last year and their receivers are reasonably priced as well.
4 – Miami Dolphins:
-4th Highest projected points for 2024
-Had MOST yards in 2023 and 2nd most points in 2023
-Amazing Week 15 and 16 game environment and projected point totals
Summary: WR Tyreek Hill, WR Jaylen Waddle, and RB De’Von Achane are drafted in Rounds 1-3. But RB Raheem Mostert (ADP 97) and QB Tua Tagovailoa (ADP 120) and other weapons are very reasonably priced.
MID-PRICED STACKS:
5 – Dallas Cowboys:
-8th Highest projected points for 2024
-Had MOST passing touchdowns in 2023
-The passing game is the most intriguing pieces – very affordable outside of WR CeeDee Lamb (ADP 2.0)
-Nice projected totals in best ball playoffs for Weeks 16 vs. Tampa Bay and Week 17 vs. Philadelphia
Summary: QB Dak Prescott just keeps getting undervalued every year (current ADP 92). Despite not being a true dual-threat QB, he finished as a top fantasy QB again. He was QB3 last year, and Dallas figures to continue to be pass-heavy again in 2024.
6 – Green Bay Packers:
-10th Highest projected points for 2024
-QB Jordan Love had 3rd most passing touchdowns in 2023
-Great value on a top offense, as you can get all the top Packers’ weapons anywhere from ADP of 46 – 152. QB Jordan Love current ADP is 94, which I think is a great value for QB5 last year.
Summary: Love and the entire Packers’ offense really broke out the last third of the season and Love showed he’s a top quarterback in this league with a plethora of weapons at every skill position.
7 – Atlanta Falcons:
-13th Highest projected points for 2024
-Everything to do with coaching and personnel changes – check out to see where Steve ranked them in OC changes and impacts
Summary: Adding QB Kirk Cousins in free agency changes and Offensive Coordinator Zac Robinson changes everything for this offense and all their weapons. You have to pay for RB Bijan Robinson and WR Drake London early in drafts, but TE Kyle Pitts, QB Kirk Cousins and WR Darnell Mooney are very reasonably priced making it a stack you can afford at different price points.
8 – New York Jets:
-14th Highest projected points for 2024
-Everything with the return of QB Aaron Rodgers
Summary: After losing Rodgers after four plays last year, the future is bright in the Big Apple for 2024. Very similar to the Falcons, this is all about what Rodgers does for this offense and all their weapons. And just like the Falcons, you have to pay for RB Breece Hall and WR Garrett Wilson in Round 1, but Rodgers and the rest of the weapons are very affordable.
CHEAP VALUE STACKS:
9 – Tennesee Titans:
-Everything to do with coaching and personnel changes – check out to see where Steve ranked them in OC changes and impacts
-Insanely cheap value!
Summary: Not ranked well for projected points, this has everything to do with coaching and personnel changes. As we discussed on the show, the addition of Brian Callahan from the Bengals to be the Titans’ new HC and run the offense can’t be understated. We’ve seen what he did as the Bengals’ OC, and he’ll likely have the Titans play at a faster pace and be more pass-heavy.
They also added several key pieces to this offense in the draft and free agency, especially RB Tony Pollard, WR Calvin Ridley, and WR Tyler Boyd. QB Will Levis is set up for success with this situation.
The best part is every piece of this offense is underpriced and a team stack is incredibly cheap overall draft capital!
10- Los Angeles Chargers:
-Everything to do with coaching and personnel changes – check out to see where Steve ranked them in OC changes and impacts
-Insanely cheap value overall
Summary: QB Justin Herbert lost most of his weapons in free agency, but we gained WR Ladd McConkey in the NFL Draft and some former Ravens’ RBs in free agency. Now run by Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman, it’s likely to be more run-heavy, but for where you are getting McConkey (likely Herbert’s WR1) and Herbert, its good value for overall team stack.
Of course there are other great offenses to target, especially the ones not listed here but in Connor’s list of top projected points for 2024 like the Bills, Bengals, Eagles, Ravens, Texans, and Rams. There are other offenses like the Jaguars, Buccaneers, Colts and Steelers that I find intriguing as well. So I’ll have plenty exposure to these offenses too. But hopefully my top 10 offenses I’m targeting in best ball and reasons why is helpful to you.
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