Players Being Drafted Too High at their ADP in Best Ball

May 28, 2024

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Steve Shoup

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WR Zay Flowers- WR 25, ADP 37.9

Flowers definitely checks some boxes for us. He has almost no competition to be the Ravens’ top wide receiver, he had a productive rookie season, he showed spike week potential, and is paired with an elite QB. Unfortunately, though I think he’s being dragged up drafts a bit too much due to his pairing with Lamar Jackson.

Flowers ceiling is pretty questionable, as most of his best games came without Mark Andrews on the field. Andrews if healthy should lead this team in targets, and fellow TE Isaiah Likely has earned himself a share of the passing game. Flowers will get the most targets among the receivers, but this is one of the lower-volume passing attacks in the league. Between their excellent defense and Jackson’s ability to run the football. Add in RB Derrick Henry and that could further eat away some passing attempts.

The lack of a ceiling here is a concern, as I don’t see much chance of him being a top 20 WR. More likely he’s a 30-40 WR, who can work in stacks and give some spike weeks. It would just be nice if his ADP was more reflective of that.

WR Tank Dell- WR 26, ADP 39.4

From a talent perspective, I love Tank Dell. He showed as a rookie that he can be a major weapon, and that was with a rookie QB as well. The problem is his ADP is simply too high for his expected role on this offense.

For as good as the Texans’ offense projects, they now have Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs as their top two receivers. It’s going to be tough for Dell to overtake either one of them, and if he doesn’t it will be tough for him to even reach 100 targets. In that case him paying off this ADP is next to impossible. Dell is also coming off a broken leg suffered late in the season. Though he’s already back on the field, it’s possible he’s not as fast as he was, as he fully works his way back.

It’s a tough situation when you love the player, love the offense, but it’s basically impossible for him to hit value at this ADP. Hopefully, he slides some and starts to make the risk of taking a 3rd receiver less of a factor. Right now though, it’s tough to click on him over some clear number 1 receivers or high-end number 2’s.

WR Rome Odunze- WR 37, ADP 67.1

Similar to Dell (though not at the same cost), the talent is legitimate, but can we take a team’s 3rd WR this high and feel good about it? In Bears stacks sure, but outside of that he’s fighting D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen for targets, and Cole Kmet for TDs.

I do think he’s getting near the point where he can be a solid pick again, but it’s tough to take him ahead of fellow rookies McConkey, Coleman, and Brian Thomas, who all could be number 1’s on their teams. Also, Jordan Addison and Chris Godwin should be good number 2 receivers, that will likely outscore Odunze.

WR Christian Watson– WR 46, ADP 81.3

Watson is an electric receiver, with the size/speed combo teams love. Unfortunately through two seasons, he’s managed just 23 games, and he still remains a bit raw overall as a player. The Packers have also greatly increased their WR talent with Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks, as well as a pair of good TEs in Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft.

Watson is just going too high given the risk of missed games and all the competition he’s facing. If he has another sustained absence, there is no guarantee that he will regain his starting role (and it might even be squeezed this year). As much as I love the Packers offense he’s going at least 30 picks too high for me.

RB Jonathon Brooks – RB 24, ADP 88.3

Brooks is coming off a torn ACL and appears likely to be ready for camp. Now just because he’s ready for camp that doesn’t mean he will be ready for a massive role as a rookie. This is the conflation that we deal with every year with guys returning from major injuries. Brooks suffered his ACL injury mid-way through the season, so it would be less than a full year at the start of the NFL season. Generally, guys coming back before a full season, have plenty of rust to shake off.

The other concern here is that the Panthers aren’t really expected to be good next year. Are they going to rush Brooks back or give him a serious workload, just to finish among the bottom of the league? He’s likely to be splitting time with Hubbard this season, which should limit his upside. I don’t love taking him in a position to be a low-end RB2, given these risks.

WR Curtis Samuel– WR50, ADP 99.9

I want pieces of the Bills offense as well, but Samuel is being taken too high right now as a top-100 player. He’s always been a low target/ADOT guy, that relies on manufactured touches. That’s not likely to change going forward.

In this offense, he will be behind TE Dalton Kincaid, rookie WR Keon Coleman, and very possibly 3rd year WR Khalil Shakir. Shakir and Samuel have some similarities to their game, but Shakir offers some extra down-the-field ability. He’s also more familiar with the offense and Josh Allen, which should give him a leg up.

Samuel just being in this offense should have some decent fantasy games, but I don’t think he’s returning value at this ADP. I would be taking Shakir ahead of him, given the higher upside.

Washington Rookie Trio- QB Jayden Daniels- QB 12, ADP 104.1, TE Ben Sinnott- TE 17, ADP 155, WR Luke McCaffrey- WR 78, ADP 178.1

I wanted to talk about this trio together, as I think the inflation of Daniels is propping up the values of the other Washington Commanders’ rookies. Daniels is definitely a dynamic runner, and he has a good enough arm that he can get decent points through the air as well. This can lead to some massive spike weeks, when both come together.

The issue is that generally for rookie QBs with this profile we see those spike weeks come few and far between. And when it’s not a spike week, he’s going to have some real unusable weeks. Ideally, that is not the type of guy you want to draft in the top 12 QBs, and definitely not ahead of the list of QBs right behind him.

If you look at the next 8 QBs (Purdy, Tua, Lawrence, Goff, Herbert, Cousins, Stafford, Rodgers), all are in better offenses, with better weapons and of course, aren’t rookies. Sure they generally won’t add many fantasy points with their legs, but they will be fantasy producers. Purdy last season finished as QB 6 in fantasy, which is the exact same spot Kirk Cousins was when he got injured after 8 weeks, and Justin Herbert was thru week 13 before he got injured.

Lawrence had a stretch of games of 20+ points before injuries took their toll on his receivers and himself last season. While not all of these QBs will finish ahead of Daniels, it wouldn’t be surprising to see half of them finish ahead of him in fantasy production. Maybe Daniels offers the highest spike week potential, but most of these guys will have multiple 25-30+ point games themselves.

As for Sinnott and McCaffrey the issue is they are simply going way too high given their role, and what this offense is likely to look like. A lot of fantasy production will come from Daniels himself on the ground, and when he is throwing the ball, Terry McLaurin and Josh Dotson figure to be the top targets. Also, expect Austin Ekeler to have a decent role from the back-field. It’s not even clear that Sinnott will be the full-time starting TE over Zach Ertz.

RB Javonte Williams– RB 31 ADP 105.2

Williams remains atop the Broncos RB depth chart, but this is probably the most murky RB group in the league. With Jaleel McLaughlin, Samje Perine, and rookie Audric Estime all vying for work, Williams will need to show his old burst if he wants to truly be the starter.

His 3.6 ypc last season was extremely underwhelming, as was his lack of TD production (3 rushing in 217 carries). Estime is likely to take the goalline work this season, so unless Williams really improves as an overall runner, he could struggle to be effective. I would much rather look at some of the RBs right behind him like Singletary, either Washington RB, Edwards, Elliott, and even Nick Chubb.

WR Adonai Mitchell- WR 56, ADP 119.6

Coming into the draft Mitchell had a lot of buzz and that has kept his ADP relatively high, despite him sliding in the actual NFL draft and not having the best overall landing spot. Overall the Colts offense is very intriguing and could be a fantasy winner this year, but it’s likely only the couple core guys (Anthony Richardson, Jonathan Taylor, and Michael Pittman Jr.) that you want.

The Colts were only middle of the pack last year in passing targets (18th overall at 574), and that number would likely have been lower had Richardson remained healthy. For all his fantasy upside Richardson, only averaged 31 attempts and 211 yards in his two fully healthy games (both of which the Colts were playing from behind). With Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs likely the top two targets on this team, it could be really tough for a third to emerge. Mitchell is likely to get pushed some from Alec Pierce at WR and the TE combo of Jelani Woods (who was injured last season) and Kyle Granson. It’s tough to see Mitchell justifying a 10th or 11th-round selection as a rookie.

TE T.J. Hockenson– TE 14, ADP 127.5

There is no question that even with the downgrade at QB Hockenson would be a solid value at TE 14, and in the 120-130 range. He was still able to have a couple productive games last season after Kirk Cousins got injured. Unfortunately, Hockenson himself is coming off his own injury, when he tore his ACL and MCL late in the season.

Right now there is no timetable for his return, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he misses the first month or so. Even when he comes back, Minnesota might be looking at this as a lost season and could ease him back in. Given the weakness of the position group, there is still a place to draft Hockenson this year, but he should be more like TE 17-20 range, and taken 2-3 rounds later.

WR Jerry Jeudy– WR 59, ADP 127.6

Jeudy finally moves on from the Broncos, but it’s not clear if this move will help his fantasy outlook. Most of the Browns’ best passing games the past two seasons came with either Jacoby Brissett or Joe Flacco at the helm. DeShaun Watson has not looked anything near the elite QB he was in Houston, and now he’s coming off a major injury.

Jeudy will have Amari Cooper and David Njoku ahead of him in the pecking order, and some decent talent behind him in Elijah Moore, Cedric Tillman, and Jamari Thrash. It’s hard to see a real upside case here for Jeudy, there is still some untapped talent, but he will need a lot to go right to outplay this ADP, or even meet it.

WR Xavier Legette- WR 65, ADP 137.9

Overall I think there is some upside for the Panthers offense. It won’t be a top-10 unit, but I do expect Bryce Young to make a solid jump. Despite some optimism, this will likely still be an offense in the bottom 3rd of the league.

Legette has two other issues working against him. He was a more raw prospect coming in vs some of the other big names in the class. While he’s a 1st round selection, he’s probably more of a 2nd or 3rd year breakout. He was very raw in college, and relied on a lot of manufactured touches for his lone productive season, as a 5th year player.

He will also be competing with targets with two quality veterans in Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen. Neither has Legette’s athletic ability or size, but they are very reliable, and exactly the types of receivers you want to surround a young QB with.