10 Rookies you Should be Scooping at ADP in Best Ball Drafts

May 11, 2024

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Steve Shoup

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QB Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears- ADP- 94.8

Williams was the clear-cut number one QB, and he lands in a fantastic spot with the Bears who have built one of the best receiving groups in the league. Williams comes in with veterans D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and TE Cole Kmet. Later in the first round, Chicago added Rome Odunze, who has an elite X-receiver profile. If Odunze is anything close to advertised, Chicago should have a top 5 offensive skill group in the league.

This should help make Williams’ transition to the NFL a lot easier, and give him an excellent chance to have a C.J. Stroud type of rookie year. Yes, you are paying a higher price, but if this offense takes off like it should, you are going to get value here.

QB Bo Nix, Denver Broncos- ADP- 208.4

After Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, Nix is the rookie QB with the clearest path to NFL starts. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him even start the whole season (something less likely for both Maye and McCathey). Nix might not have Williams or even Daniels’ fantasy upside, but he’s a capable QB with good touch and functional mobility that should help add some fantasy points to his game.

The Broncos receivers aren’t elite, but it appears to be a solid group (including Troy Franklin his college teammate). As a 3rd QB that you can essentially get in the last couple of rounds of the draft, I think he’s a strong option. He’s likely to play more than some other scenarios this late, and the added mobility helps his upside for maybe a few spike weeks. Don’t expect a C.J. Stroud type of rookie season, but he should be able to fill in a couple of weeks for you.

RB Blake Corum, LA Rams- ADP- 130.1

Corum goes to a situation where he’s likely to be the clear 2nd option to Kyren Williams, but the upside and value still make him worthy of this selection. The Rams will still heavily use Williams, but Corum could have a 30-35% role on this team. In a Sean McVay offense that projects to be top 10 offense in the NFL, that can still offer some stand-alone value. In addition, if Williams were to miss any time, Corum is poised to be an elite option in that scenario. He’s a tough runner, who will fit this offense and find his way into the end zone. You can’t count on him as a clear starter, but as your 3rd or 4th back, he can provide clear value at this pick.

RB Audric Estime, Denver Broncos- ADP- 208.8

Estime comes in as a 5th round pick in what on paper looks to be a crowded backfield of Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Samaje Perine. So why am I so happy to keep scooping him up in the 16th-18th round? Well, the Broncos backfield is thinner than people give it credit for. Williams has the biggest name recognition and upside, but he was woefully inefficient last year. McLaughlin and Perine should hardly be considered locks for their roles this upcoming season.

Even more noticeable was how poor this group was at scoring TDs last season. In over 300 combined rushing attempts, this trio managed just 5 rushing TDs. Estime is an obvious answer to that issue on the team, after he had 18 TDs last season for Notre Dame. Even in a scenario where he is part of a 3-man backfield, Estime is likely to have the most valuable role on the offense. He can pay off his ADP just with decent TD production alone. If he carves out an even larger role, he can massively outperform this ADP.

WR Xavier Worthy, Kansas City- ADP- 58.4

Worthy’s stock has been on the rise since he set the 40-yard dash record at the NFL Combine. Now that he lands with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs it’s taking a meteoric rise (particularly with the Rashee Rice off-the-field concerns). Is it too high though? Yes Travis Kelce will still dominate opportunities, and Marquise Brown is a good free-agent acquisition, but Worthy will have the opportunity for a big role as a rookie. And Mahomes’ numbers should bounce back to his career norms with better weapons around him.

Even if Worthy ends up the 3rd option on the team, he can exceed this ADP. In addition Worthy’s unique skill set, of blazing speed could push him into a bigger role, and some true ceiling game performances.

WR Ladd McConkey, LA Chargers- ADP-70.9

The Chargers WR room is undergoing a major overhaul as both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are on other teams this season. Though they hope that young players like Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston step up, McConkey has the opportunity to be the biggest beneficiary. Though the Chargers might be more run-focused this season under the new coaching staff, they still have one of the top QBs in the league in Justin Herbert.

His number 1 receiver should be a fantasy stud. With McConkey’s his elite route-running, speed and hands, he could be that guy. Keenan Allen had 150 targets in 13 games last season, McConkey could hit that 150 mark, even if the Chargers throw a bit less this year. That’s a massive target share potential for someone you are taking this late.

WR Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills- ADP- 74.9

Everyone knew the Bills were going to have to address the receiver position in the draft, and it was expected to be a major fantasy boon. With them choosing Coleman over some other flashier options, we have a situation where Josh Allen‘s potential top WR is being undervalued. Coleman lost a lot of buzz after a relatively disappointing NFL Combine, but the Bills care more about his performance on the field vs a timed track speed.

Coleman offers size and physicality and is one of the better jump ball/circus catch receivers in this class. Coleman won’t be a major deep ball receiver or a YAC guy, but he’s going to be a weapon in the Red Zone. The chance to add probably the top RZ receiving weapon, from one of the best offenses in the league this late in the draft is not typical. Take advantage of the price while it lasts.

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, New England Patriots- ADP- 155.4

Polk took advantage of Jalen McMillian missing some time this year, and took over the number 2 role in Washington’s high-powered offense. Though he might lack the athletic traits to be a true elite receiver, he has good size and decent ability to be a highly productive NFL receiver. This isn’t the strongest overall landing spot, but Polk has a real opportunity to be the Patriots’ top receiver as a rookie.

I wouldn’t expect many 25-35 point spike weeks, but if he secures the Patriots top WR role, he can consistently produce between 15-20 Underdog points. That should be good enough for your WR 3 or Flex most weeks.

WR Roman Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers-ADP- 159.3

The Steelers’ passing attack isn’t top-tier like some of the earlier WR’s mentioned, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see it improved this year with Russell Wilson under center. Despite it being so poor last season, Roman Wilson is expected to step into Diontae Johnson‘s WR 2 role on the team. Last year in 13 games Johnson had 51 catches for 717 yards and 5 TDs.

If Wilson can match those numbers over 17 games there would be value at this ADP, and there is plenty of opportunity to exceed that production. Roman Wilson is a refined route runner, with good speed and hands. He is the type of receiver that projects well to make an easy jump to the NFL, particularly in a role similar to Johnson.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, Carolina Panthers- ADP-205.9

Sanders did not end up being the 2nd TE selected like many expected pre-draft, but he went to one of the best landing spots. The Panthers TE room is very thin, and Sanders who is more of a receiving TE anyway, could quickly earn a lot of targets from Bryce Young.

While the Panthers veteran receivers will likely be the top targets on the team, Sanders can be a good 3rd TE, and possibly even a solid TE2 for your best ball team. Right now I generally would only take him in 3 TE builds, but I do love the upside and the fact that you can still routinely draft him in the 16th/17th round makes him very enticing.