Week 11 Underdog Pick’ems of the week
Here are my favorite NFL Week 11 Underdog Pick’ems for you all to follow! If you are new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up here and be sure to use code FANSPEAK for 100% deposit match up to $100! Double your money to play more Pick’ems! Now let’s get to why I like these Week 11 picks.
QB Zach Wilson passing yards – Lower than 190.5
Wilson threw for 300+ against the Patriots just a few weeks ago, but that is the outlier for his season in terms of yardage and attempts. The Jets know they aren’t going to win by having Wilson drop back and throw the ball 35-45 times. Even when they do have him throw, they want it to be intermediate or shorter. If New England does get a large quick lead, then perhaps Wilson will top this number by sheer volume, but even that isn’t a guarantee. The Jets figure to try to control this game and slow it down earlier, to ensure they can stay in the game. Typically the 2nd time division opponents meet it ends up lower scoring as well. For me I actually see the Jets having a fair chance of winning this game, so that is why I like Wilson to be lower than this number. If you do believe it will go like the first game, then I’d be hesitant to include Wilson.
Nico Collins receiving yards – Higher than 40.5
Collins has topped this mark in 5 of 7 games this season and has now earned himself the lead role in this passing offense. Collins saw 10+ targets last week, and he should continue to be in that 8-12 target range in most games. The Commanders’ secondary is definitely the weakest part of their defense, as we’ve seen time and again they struggle to cover quality wide receivers. Yes, it would be better if Collins was in a high-quality offense, or had a better QB, but the game script is probably going to be favorable as well. This is a line I think Collins can beat pretty quickly, and will be the easiest thing to sweat out this week.
Marcus Mariota passing yards- Lower than 164.5
This is a number that Mariota has topped 5 times this season, so it’s not impossible, but it seems unlikely. The Falcons just aren’t throwing the ball enough this year (31st in the league in attempts). The Bears’ defense is worst against the run, than the pass which should naturally lead Atlanta to run as much as they want this game. Chicago also not going to throw the ball a lot (32nd in attempts), so this should be a very run-heavy game that churns the clock. The total play volume in the game could be low 50’s per team. Also, I’m baking in the possibility that Mariota could get benched if he continues to struggle. There have been growing calls for rookie Desmond Ridder, and they might start to give him a look in this game if the Falcons get behind.