Dynasty Football Rookie Draft Wide Receiver Breakdown
Now that the NFL draft is over we have the whole picture for rookies and what their Dynasty Football outlook will be. We will go position-by-position breaking down every player drafted and what their dynasty outlook is at their landing spot. The main focus will be PPR Dynasty value, but acknowledgement to Superflex will be considered as well. Next up Wide Receivers:
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons- 1st round (8th overall):
London is a good physical receiver, who automatically becomes the Falcons number 1 guy. Even though the offense figures to be poor in 2022, London could see a 20-25% target share which is highly valuable. Going forward the Falcons will probably be in position to grab a top QB next draft, which could really elevate London’s long term projection. You should be spending a top 5 pick on him, perhaps even 1.02.
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets- 1st round (10th overall):
-Wilson should step into the number 1 WR role for the Jets from day one. He’s highly skilled and should have no problem adjusting to the NFL. This offense doesn’t project to be too effective, but it could surprise some people. There is a lot of young talent on this team, and if Zach Wilson develops at all, they could at least be league average. Either way Wilson should be one of the top 5 picks in your rookie draft. The talent and long term upside is too good here.
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints- 1st round (11th overall):
-Olave probably has the best floor in this class and still the upside to be a very good receiver. He’s a good route runner and highly reliable. The question here really is the landing spot. The offense projects lower volume and Michael Thomas and now Jarvis Landry are there. Also, long term the QB situation is very unsettled and the Saints don’t even have a 1st next year to hope they land someone.
Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions – 1st round (12th overall):
-Williams probably would have been the first receiver off the board if not for his injury in the National Championship game. He has tremendous big play ability and could develop into a true alpha receiver. It’s likely this year he starts the year on PUP, but in 2023 he could be the top WR from this class, especially if the Lions land a top rookie signal caller.
Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders – 1st round (16th overall):
-Dotson is one of the best route runners and pure receivers in this class, to go along with good speed. He should quickly become the number 2 option in Washington, but it is worth noting there is competition for targets behind Terry McLaurin. The Commanders will have their best QB since Kirk Cousins left, and might open up the offense a bit. Dotson is still worth a 1st round investment, but probably end of the round.
Treylon Burks, Tennessee Titans – 1st round (18th overall):
-Burks theoretically is the A.J. Brown replacement in Tennessee and there are some similarity in their skill sets. Burks has a very high upside if he can put it all together but there are some concerns with his floor. Of all the 1st round receivers he seemed to have the widest gap in his floor and ceiling. It wouldn’t be surprising if he took a year or two to really develop. He’s still worth a 1st in dynasty obviously, but I wouldn’t over prioritize him.
Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers – 2nd round (34th overall):
-Don’t overthink this, Watson gets excellent draft capital and goes to a team with a fairly empty WR depth chart and Aaron Rodgers at QB. Yes he’s a bit raw as a prospect and Rodgers hasn’t had rookie WRs have a ton of fantasy value, but the opportunity is too great. He should be a mid-1st target in drafts and go ahead of 1 or 2 receivers who were drafted ahead of him in the NFL.
Wan’Dale Robinson, New York Giants- 2nd round (43rd overall):
-Robinson gets a weird landing spot and surprising draft capital for more of an undersized gadget player. The Giants WR depth chart is stacked currently (though they are rumored to trade someone), so it is tough to see how Robinson gets significant playing time. He really becomes a 2023 or 2024 sleeper based on draft capital. Hopefully by then the Giants have a better QB and have cleared out.
John Metchie III, Houston Texans – 2nd round (44th overall):
-Metchie is an intriguing guy as if he didn’t get seriously injured in November there probably would have been more buzz on him. He probably wouldn’t have been the most athletically gifted, but he’s a great route runner and profiles as a good slot player. The landing spot is not great, the Texans will probably be a low volume offense with poor efficiency next season. Also Brandin Cooks signed an extension and Nico Collins showed some promise as a rookie. I wouldn’t prioritize Metchie in the early 2nd where you generally see him going, but later that round it makes sense.
Tyquan Thornton, New England Patriots- 2nd round (50th overall):
-Thornton blew away the combine with his 40 time, but his speed is really the only thing that stands out for him. He had a couple good years, but didn’t blow away the competition in the Big 12. He profiles mainly as just a deep threat/speed guy. Not necessarily a full-time starter WR. If you got Thornton in the 4th or 5th round that would make sense. With this draft capital the Patriots have to feel they can get more out of him. If they are right you want him on your roster and probably can even wait till the end of the 2nd or 3rd to land him.
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers- 2nd round (52nd overall):
-From an upside perspective Pickens might have the highest ceiling in this class, as he can do it all. Injuries and maturity concerns limited his production, which tamped down on his draft stock. This is a great landing spot in Pittsburgh, and he could push Chase Claypool out of the number 2 role. Late 1st or early 2nd is where you will have to draft him.
Alec Pierce, Indianapolis Colts – 2nd round (53rd overall):
-Good outside receiver with intriguing size and speed, lands in a great spot with the Colts. He complements Michael Pittman extremely well, and he looks like he will get the keys to the number 2 role. If Matt Ryan has a bounce back season in Indy, Pierce could quickly have fantasy value as a rookie. Target him early 2nd round of drafts.
Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs – 2nd round (54th overall):
-Incredible landing spot for Moore who could quickly become the Chiefs number 1 receiver. He doesn’t fully have Tyreek Hill‘s skill set, but he has great burst and acceleration, and was a big time playmaker in college. Pairing him with Patrick Mahomes is a dream come true for Dynasty owners. While he might need to beat out Mecole Hardman, that doesn’t seem like a tough task. Expect that you will need to draft him somewhere in the 8-12 range of dynasty drafts.
Velus Jones, Chicago Bears – 3rd round (71st overall):
-Jones is an older prospect and never really had a breakout year in college. He profiles more as a special teamer/depth guy, and most thought he’d be a 5th-6th round pick. The draft capital makes this interesting, as does the Bears barren depth chart. The question is how much do you want to invest in Jones. Since he could be a bye week fill in/flex guy early in his career just based on opportunity, a late 3rd round pick is still reasonable. If you are expecting him to develop into an alpha receiver you will probably be disappointed though.
Jalen Tolbert, Dallas Cowboys – 3rd round (88th overall)
-Tolbert was a smaller school guy, but had a tremendous career at South Alabama. He has good size/speed, and played well at the Senior Bowl vs better competition. He gets 3rd round draft capital, with a very nice landing spot. Not only will he be catching passes from Dak Prescott, but this is an offense that lost Amari Cooper, Cedrick Wilson at WR and Blake Jarwin at TE. On top of that Michael Gallup is expected to miss the start of the year as he recovers from an injury. Tolbert could be the number 2 receiver to start the season, in one of the best passing offenses in the league.
His draft slot in rookie drafts seems to be all over the place, so it will depend on your league where you think you can get him. To me this is one of the best spots both immediately and long term, so don’t be afraid to use early rd 2 draft capital.
David Bell, Cleveland Browns – 3rd round (99th overall)
-Bell was very productive in college and gets a strong top 100 draft capital here. His athletic testing left a lot to be desired, but he could be fine as a big slot type of guy. The depth chart is fairly open behind Amari Cooper, but there are some intriguing guys Bell will need to beat out to carve a role. The real question is that will the Browns be more of a passing team with DeShaun Watson, which could really open up a ceiling for Bell. Generally he seems to be going early 2nd in most rookie drafts, probably a bit too rich. If he’s still hanging around at the end of the 2nd or early 3rd that is where I’d target him.
Danny Gray, San Francisco 49ers – 3rd round (105th overall)
-Gray can fly and be a big play guy, but the question remains how big of a role is that. Presumably Deebo will be back and the team has Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle to throw the ball to as well. The thought process is that Gray can be the deep threat to open up the underneath, but will that be a fantasy relevant role? Ideally Trey Lance is the starter and he can use his big arm to get the ball to Gray, but there is no guarantee. Lance has all the upside in the world, but has extremely limited experience going back to college. The 49ers might even try to be more run centric with him. Also, at this point its not even a guarantee that Lance is the week 1 starter.
Erik Ezukanma, Miami Dolphins – 4th round (125th overall)
-Intriguing skill set and good draft capital are positives for Ezukanma. The big downside here is the depth chart. He has Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill and Cedrick Wilson ahead of him. All three received major investments from the team in money and/or draft capital. Also all three are pretty much locked into the roster for the next couple of years. It’s going to be tough for Ezukanma to see the field without major injuries.
Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers – 4th round (132nd overall)
-Doubs was highly productive at Nevada and he gets pretty good draft capital here in a great landing spot. The big concern here is that Doubs didn’t test like people hoped and he was dealing with an injury. Historically rookie receivers haven’t made a big impact on the Packers, and Watson is definitely ahead of him. Doubs is definitely worth a later round shot in rookie drafts, but this is probably more of a 2023 option.
Calvin Austin III, Pittsburgh Steelers – 4th round (138th overall)
-Austin has a great skill set, has decent draft capital, and lands on the best team in the league at finding non-1st round receivers. The only question is the depth chart and potentially the direction of the offense. Pittsburgh already has Johnson and Claypool established and grabbed Pickens earlier. Potentially they will look to move on from either Johnson or Claypool after this season, but that is far from a guarantee.
Also while historically three receivers have been viable in this offense, that was when Ben Roethlisberger was more effective. How will this offense look as Trubisky and Pickett take over? It’s possible they look to become more balanced as well, behind Najee Harris. Still despite some concerns, late 3rd of rookie drafts is a worthwhile investment here.
Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills – 5th round (148th overall)
-Draft capital is later than you wanted, but keep in mind Gabriel Davis went just 20 picks earlier in 2020, and he looks like he has a bright fantasy future. The landing spot is great here as Shakir profiles best as a slot receiver and Buffalo really only has Crowder and McKenzie for that role. Crowder is probably a 1 year stop gap, and McKenzie probably can’t hold up as a fulltime guy. Shakir could become very fantasy relevant in 2023, and might quickly become one of Allen’s top targets.
Montrell Washington, Denver Broncos – 5th round (162nd overall)
-Return man/special teams figures to be his role. Small school receiver who never put up big receiving numbers. Not worth a look in dynasty.
Kyle Phillips, Tennessee Titans – 5th round (163rd overall)
-Profiles as a good slot receiver and on a number of other teams would be an intriguing late round rookie draft pick. In Tennessee it’s tough to see him getting a lot of fantasy value early on. Woods and Burks figure to be the top 2 weapons on what has been a very run heavy team. The 3rd receiver has not really been a fantasy option the last couple years. Also Burks actually profiles to work well out of the slot, so even when they do go three wide, Tennessee could prefer to put someone else outside and move Burks inside.
Jalen Nailor, Minnesota Vikings – 6th round (191st overall)
-Nailor was a do everything type of player at Michigan State so that should help earn him a roster spot. Behind Jefferson and Thielen there is an opportunity for a true 3rd option to emerge. Nailor would have an outside chance of being that guy in a pretty good passing offense. Still probably better to wait until the camp battles before you try to roster him.
Mike Woods, Cleveland Browns – 6th round (202nd overall)
-Beyond Amari Cooper the depth chart is pretty open, but Woods has a tough road to climb for fantasy relevancy. Worth keeping an eye on to see if he rises up the depth charts, but not a guy to consider in rookie drafts.
Bo Melton, Seattle Seahawks – 7th round (229th overall)
-Tested well, and flashes some big play ability. Many thought he would go at least 2 rounds earlier, so this could be a value pick. The depth chart is wide open after Metcalf and Lockett, so keep an eye on him in camp.
Dareke Young, Seattle Seahawks – 7th round (233rd overall)
-Small school size and speed guy, has the tools to become a weapon, but could be a long road as he develops.
Samori Toure, Green Bay Packers – 7th round (258th overall)
-Depth chart and opportunity to play with Rodgers should at least have him on your waiver wire radar in camp. He has some big play ability, and if camp reports and preseason play earn him a roster spot, he might be worth grabbing. Probably not draftable.