Who to play from the highest projected point total game: NE vs Was

For daily fantasy one of the best data sources one can use is the Vegas lines in constructing their line-ups. By using the over/under number you can target players from the highest projected scoring games and get as much exposure as possible for those teams. Here is a look at who you should play from one of the highest projected over/under’s of the week. These recommendations are primarily for medium-to-large field GPPs.

Washington Redskins @ New England Patriots: o/u: 52 pts, line: NE -13

Quarterbacks:  

Tom Brady of course is the top play here and he’s arguably the top QB of the week from any game. He’ll be extremely highly owned, but you still want plenty of exposure to Brady in case he goes off for a truly monster game. The Redskins secondary isn’t good to begin with and their top 3 corners are all dealing with injuries and considered questionable for this game. Brady has one of the highest floors and the upside to go off for 400 yards and 5+ TDs.

Though Kirk Cousins obviously doesn’t have the same floor or upside of Brady he does merit some consideration this week. The Redskins aren’t expected to be shutout in this game, so Cousins should have some chances for TDs. With the way the Redskins run game has struggled of late and the likely game flow, Cousins figures to be throwing a lot in this game. It’s possible he has his top receiver DeSean Jackson back for this game giving him another weapon. The Patriots have also shown at times that they’ll let their foot off the gas and have allowed some garbage time points. That could definitely be the case here for Cousins as garbage time points and 40+ pass attempts could put him in line for 300+ yards and 2-3 TD. That might not make Cousins the highest scoring QB, but given his price a good day like that can allow you to get top players elsewhere.

Running backs: 

For the Patriots they might have two viable running backs in this game. Dion Lewis is their pass catching back, who has been deadly in this offense as a receiver. He hasn’t gotten a ton of volume on the ground (in part because the Patriots don’t run a lot), but it helps add to his floor. He hasn’t practiced much this week, but he’s still expected to play in this game. The main concern here is that the Patriots are up so big that they just look to rest Lewis. And that is a definite risk. The upside here though is that the Redskins run defense is one of the worst in the league and even in limited carries, Lewis could put up big numbers on the ground to go along with his usual receiving value. There is definite risk here, but unless reports come out that Lewis isn’t going to play much, he’s worth having some decent exposure to. Blount is worth getting some exposure to as well as if Lewis were to sit more he could have value. His running style hasn’t really been the type to give the Redskins trouble this season, but he could definitely still pose a problem.

From the Redskins perspective there is no reason to really play any of these running backs. The Redskins use three running backs Alfred Morris, Matt Jones and Chris Thompson in a rotation, which makes it tough to use them when things are going well, and impossible to use them when things aren’t going well. Unfortunately for the Redskins things have been rough of late as their running game has ground to a halt. On top of that the Redskins figure to be down for much of this game so it’s unlikely they’ll be able to maintain a running game throughout the game. Chris Thompson as the pass catching back has the most upside in this game, but really he’s not worth using unless you want an extreme under the radar guy.

Wide Receiver: 

Julian Edelman is the Patriots best receiver, and he’s also got one of the highest floors of any receiver any given week. He’s basically a lock for 6 catches and 70 yards, and he’s typically going to see enough targets to put him in the 10 catch and/or 100 yard range. He’s got at least one TD in four of seven games and twice he’s gone for 2 TDs. Against this banged up Redskins secondary he could be in line for the high side of all those numbers. The one concern with Edelman is that his price can make him tough to justify unless he is going to get the high end of those numbers in tournaments. You definitely want some Edelman exposure, but I don’t think you need to go overboard.

The Patriots present two other wild card receiver options in Danny Amendola and Brandon LaFell. Neither receiver has the consistency you want to see, which makes them fliers at best. Amendola actually has a couple solid games this year, while LaFell has yet to make much of an impact since coming back 2 weeks ago. Neither of these guys is a real recommended play, but they are so cheap from such a high scoring expected total that they deserve some consideration. The exposure should be very limited here, but if you need a really cheap receiver and can live with the chance that they might score only 4 or 5 fantasy points they can be worth the shot.

As for the Redskins receivers with Jackson possibly back they have three viable receivers in Jackson, Pierre Garcon and Jamison Crowder. With Jackson questionable and probably dealing with a bit of rust, while earning the Patriots attention, he’s pretty easy to fade for me. His price is cheap so I can understand taking a shot at him, but overall I would pass on him. With Crowder and Garcon it’s tough to really want to use either one despite the fact that you know they will see decent targets and they are pretty cheap. Neither has shown big play ability, and they haven’t been racking up the yards this year. Crowder’s yet to see the end zone, that could change this week and if it does he might pay off, but I recommend limited exposure to both receivers at best. Even in Kirk Cousins leagues I’d either stack him with Jordan Reed or even forgo stacking with him and use his price savings to bring in more sure thing receivers.

Tight End: 

This feels like a Rob Gronkowski game and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him really go off this week. The Redskins safeties and linebackers all struggle in coverage, which will make Gronkowski have a major advantage in 1-on-1 coverage. Even if the Redskins try to bracket him with two guys, he figures to have a major advantage in those situations. He’ll be highly owned, but he’s worth having a lot of exposure to this week, as this has the makings of a 7-10 catch, 100+ yard, 2 TD game.

Jordan Reed presents and interesting option on the other side. When Reed his healthy he’s a viable fantasy weapon and he comes at a significant discount to Gronkowski. Even though the Redskins are significant underdogs in this game they are still expected to score about 20 points and that number could trend up. Reed is the Redskins number 1 red zone target, and their most effective passing weapon overall. Now the Patriots are notorious for taking away or slowing down top options from opposing teams. It will be interesting to see if they consider Jackson or Reed the bigger threat and really try to shut down one of them. Given that concern I wouldn’t go overboard with Reed exposure, but feel like he’s a strong 2nd tier TE option.