The “Take a Stand” article each week will feature players or teams that I am high or low on, yet it seems like majority of the daily fantasy world feels the opposite. As we know in daily fantasy tournaments, if you take stands against ownership, you can use that to your benefit.
Obviously not for all chalky plays, because there is plenty of “good chalk”. But each week I also see leverage points. I certainly will not always be right. But when I am right, taking a stand will gain a huge leverage on the field.
Also remember, for Weeks 1-4, taking a stand can be a HUGE advantage. Why? Because we all think we know what’s going to happen based on last year’s results. But in actuality, a lot changes in the course of an offseason. Whether it’s draft picks, free agents additions/losses, positive/negative regression, coaching/scheme changes, and plenty more variables, the value of a player or team in daily fantasy from one year to the next can change. So Weeks 1-4 is the best time to be contrarian while we wait for more in-season data.
We know the high total games and the obvious plays. But here are my Week 2 stands…
Vikings Passing offense:
One of the highest total games is the Cardinals/Vikings. And while Kyler Murray will have decent ownership (as he should), no one is talking about a very condensed offense to bring it back with in the Vikings. Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen are all projected next to no ownership. So I love the leverage spot here in ownership, while still getting exposure to that high total game.
Earlier in the week Christian McCaffery’s ownership looked very low. Now it looks to be around 10%. I will be WAY overweight on that 10% ownership. This is a running back who almost double bonused last week and didn’t score a touchdown. Add in a TD or two, and a bonus or two and he’s an ultimate smash play at 10% ownership.
Is it hard to get him in a lineup with some of the high total games….yes? But it is possible to stack a high total game and McCaffery, if you use one of the running backs below.
Low Price RBs to pair with McCaffery:
Here are some low price running backs in great game scripts that are coming with 4-12% ownership:
-Darrell Henderson Jr.
If you want to get really crazy, you could even look to super low owned RBS, that may get more targets with a depleted wide receiver core:
Not all of these are going to work, but I’m willing to make a strong bet that plenty of them do hit value. And if that allows you to put CMC and a Cowboys/Chargers stack in your lineup, then sign me up!
Kenyon Drake & Raiders offense:
Kenyon Drake chalk (and I think it may get chalkier), is one that I’m going to fade. Mainly for the reasons that I don’t like the entire Raiders offense this week, even Darren Waller. They are coming west to east for an early game, on a short week, with an injured offensive line and facing a very tough Steelers defense. We saw how the Steelers shut down Josh Allen & co. last week. This is an easy fade for me.
At this point Eli Mitchell doesn’t seem as high owned as I originally thought he’d be, probably because Drake is “in play”. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he does come in higher owned and I’m not going to trust Shanahan and co.
We saw the confusion last week with Trey Sermon as a healthy scratch and Brandon Aiyuk’s playing time. Trying to figure out the 49ers offense is like playing whack a mole. Since I do not mass multi enter, I’m going to focus on more condensed offenses and players with more “guaranteed” volume.
I know the Falcons are not projected to be high owned. But a lot of people are playing Brady and the Bucs and will typically “run it back”. Until I see it from the Falcons, I may not force a bring back player unless it just fits like a Kyle Pitts.