Week 16 Short Slate Primer

Early Only:

Quarterbacks:

In the 9-game early slate, the QB position is pretty interesting as you have only a handful of QBs in good spots this week. Jared Goff is the most expensive but still comes under $7K. He is coming off his best game of the season, and facing a weaker Vikings secondary.

If you save a little money Geno Smith and Joe Flacco are solid mid-tier options, both with pretty strong match-ups. Smith has been injured the last two weeks, but he absolutely shredded the Cowboys’ elite defense last time he played. He now gets a much weaker Titans team. Flacco continues to produce week-in-week-out and remains a solid option.

If you want to save a little money you can hope that either Taylor Heinicke or Trevor Siemian can produce at under $5K. Neither should instill a ton of confidence, but both have some top weapons to throw to, and pretty good match-ups.

Running backs:

For the most part I want to avoid the top three backs as I don’t like the match-ups for Taylor or the Detroit running backs. This leaves a number of backs who were massive failures last week, in Henry, Bijan, and Breece Hall.

Despite their failures a week ago, I think going back to them is the right call as the match-ups make sense, and the usage should be strong enough to justify the price.  Other mid-tier backs like Walker, Aaron Jones, and Hubbard, all have a little bit of an interesting case as well.

Chandler, Singletary, Ford, and Gibson all offer a little cheaper potential and upside, but none are in perfect spots. Chandler faces a tougher match-up, and could see Mattison reclaim some of the workload. Singletary also faces a very tough match-up. Ford’s usage has been inconsistent of late as he’s been dealing with some nagging injuries. Gibson should see a big role without Robinson, but last week that didn’t materialize.

Wide Receivers:

Wide receiver is pretty deep this week on the early slate as you can find strong plays throughout the price list. At the top ASB and Jefferson are clear top options, but you can build a strong mid-tier group as well.

Metcalf, Cooper, Hopkins, Addison, G. Wilson, and Lockett all are in great spots. If you grab 2-3 of them you could really be locking in some big performances, at a value.

Depending on what happens with the Packers injured receivers, Romeo Doubs could be a real value play option.  Josh Downs, JSN, Alec Pierce, and Elijah Moore are other value options who’s role or price don’t necessarily match. I also don’t mind taking shots at the cheap Detroit receivers Jameson Williams and Josh Reynolds. It’s possible that one of them get there.

Tight Ends:

Tight end is pretty easy for the Early slate. Pay up for LaPorta/Hockenson/Njoku or Pay down for Kraft/L. Thomas/Conklin. Generally, I will probably go LaPorta and Njoku when I pay up, and Kraft and Conklin when I pay down. If the Packers’ questionable receivers get ruled out, I will lean more Kraft.

Afternoon Only:

Quarterbacks:

Only a three-game afternoon slate, but you can make a case for all 6 quarterbacks available. In a weird way in each game the two opposing QBs most closely mirror each other, for their pluses and minuses. So if you find the right game, and choose the right side, you can clearly tell yourself the correct narrative.

At the top Dak and Tua face off as the leaders of two of the best offenses in the league. This game has ultimate shootout potential and could see either QB go way over 300 yards with 3+ passing TDs. Prescott offers a bit more upside with his rushing ability and is probably more likely to throw more.

The Cardinals vs Bears game is a pair of bad teams with electric mobile QBs with big arms, and questionable surrounding offensive talent. Fields has clearly been better this season, and the Cardinals defense is probably the weaker of the two, but Murray is in consideration as well. It’s likely Murray ends up the lowest owned of the 6 QBs.

With Trevor Lawrence now expected to suit up, this Florida battle of the Jags vs Bucs features, two of the worst secondaries in the league. These are tremendous match-ups for both QBs. Lawrence is the better option, but Mayfield has healthier weapons, and is the cheapest on the slate.

Running backs:

For RB, I think James Conner is the best value option on the slate, but he will likely carry a fair bit of ownership. Rachaad White is in a great spot, and despite the Cowboys tougher defense, I wouldn’t get scared away from a Dolphins RB (namely Mostert). Tony Pollard though might be my favorite option on the slate.

Pollard has looked better over the last 4-6 weeks overall, and he’s in an area that could keep his ownership down. We still haven’t seen the ceiling game from Pollard, and it’s definitely in his wheelhouse.

For me I’m completely out on the Bears backs. I just can’t trust any of them, and it’s likely they all three split the role.

Wide Receivers:

So my priority is of course Tyreek Hill and Ceedee Lamb, but I do think Mike Evans and Calvin Ridley aren’t far off given their likely target share and match-ups. I want 2 of these 4 receivers in every line-up.

I like Waddle, DJ Moore, and Chris Godwin, but I just don’t see myself having the money to afford them and not finding a way up to the top tier. Brandin Cooks is another mid-tier WR I want some exposure too, but might not go overboard with.

There is some value options here with cheap Cardinals receivers like Michael Wilson, Rondale Moore, and Greg Dortch (if he plays). In addition with Zay Jones likely out, Jaguars receivers like Parker Washington and Jamal Agnew are also in play, especially if Zay Jones is out.

Tight Ends:

It’s actually a pretty strong TE group this week in the late slate. McBride, Engram and Ferguson all clearly stand out. McBride’s usage has been off the charts recently, and that likely will continue vs a bad Bears defense. Engram could get a bigger bump if Zay Jones is out, and Ferguson has been a major threat in the Cowboys offense all season.

Though there is a tier drop, Cole Kmet and Cade Otton can save you a little salary, but they don’t really have the upside you are hoping for.