Saturday ONLY – Short Slate Survey Week 15
After Steve’s massive wins on the Thanksgiving 3-game slate and the Early Only short slate on in Week 12, we are doing a weekly Short Slate Strategy Surveys. Check out our favorite QB stacks, values, contrarian plays, fades, and more for the Saturday ONLY Week 15 slate! You can always find all our Daily Fantasy content here!
Check out our Short Slate Show on Fanspeak Network for more details on the Saturday ONLY slate!
FAVORITE QB STACK?
STEVE:
Jake Browning/Ja’Marr Chase
MEG:
FAVORITE GAME STACK?
STEVE:
Broncos at Lions
MEG:
Broncos at Lions
TOP 3 VALUE PLAYS (ANY POSITION)?
STEVE:
Ty Chandler, Najee Harris, Alec Pierce
MEG:
Ty Chandler, Najee Harris, Jameson Williams
TOP 3 CONTRARIAN PLAYS (ANY POSITION)?
*Note: Ownership tough to judge at this point for Saturday Only.
STEVE:
David Montgomery, Jordan Addison, Tee Higgins
MEG:
David Montgomery, Jameson Williams or Josh Reynolds (only one or other in a lineup), Jordan Addison
TOP 3 FADES (20% OWNERSHIP OR HIGHER)?
*Note: Ownership tough to judge at this point for Saturday Only.
STEVE:
Jerry Jeudy, Javonte Williams, Dionte Johnson
MEG:
Jerry Jeudy, Jahmyr Gibbs (playing David Montgomery), Jaylen Warren (playing Najee Harris)
FAVORITE DEFENSE?
STEVE:
Steelers
MEG:
As Steve mentioned on our Short Slate Show, really any defense is in play. So this will be my last piece in that fits.
OVERALL LINEUP STRATEGY FOR EARLY ONLY?
STEVE:
With just a 3 game slate and reasonable pricing overall, it allows you to be flexible in approaching these games. I like doing at least one line-up focused on each of these games, stacking them up, and seeing if the right combination can go off. Then I might do a couple of line-ups where I mix the games a bit more. For me, this is the ideal approach since no single team or game stands out as the must-play on the slate.
Despite having six teams to choose from we only have two regular starting QBs in Jared Goff and Russell Wilson, and neither has shown a massive ceiling this year. This allows me to be confident in taking any QB to be honest, because even as bad as he was last Thursday night Mitch Trubisky had 21.6 DK points due to his rushing TD. If he does that on this slate, he could be QB 1 or 2. I’m mainly going to focus on Goff and Jake Browning, but honestly, any QB has a case to be made for them on this slate.
Running back is interesting this week, as you have injuries setting up Zack Moss and Ty Chandler for big workloads (and Chandler at a very low price), then you have three two-headed backfields in the Bengals, Lions, and Steelers. With the Lions and Steelers backs having just fantastic match-ups. Both Steelers backs are pretty cheap, and while the offense looked awful last week, this is a pretty fantastic spot for them. Definitely a legitimate case where they both could get there. I could even see playing both and hoping that Pittsburgh has 3 TDs and most of their yards on the ground (or via dump-offs). The only back field I’m out on is the Broncos and Javonte Williams.
Williams in a great match-up last week got 18 points and his first rushing TD. He benefited from a very short field due to a turnover and was still highly inefficient. Now he faces a much tougher Vikings run defense. He’s an easy fade for me, and it’s not worth even hoping Perine does enough as the 3rd down back.
Receiver is generally where I want to spend up, with top guys like Justin Jefferson, Michael Pittman, Ja’Marr Chase, and Amon-Ra St. Brown leading the way. Also, options like Courtland Sutton (in a strong match-up), Tee Higgins, Josh Downs, The Steelers receivers, and Jordan Addison have the 20+ point upside as well. So It’s pretty easy to fill out a strong 3 or 4-man receiver group if you can find the money. Ownership will of course be high on the big-name guys and a few of the salary savers, but it’s likely a couple of players go under the radar.
Second receivers like Higgins and Addison figure to barely be owned. Even if they don’t fully outscore their alpha receiver teammate, they might be the better play from a price standpoint and a leverage standpoint. In some builds you can even play them together with the number one receiver from the team (especially if stacked with the QB). It’s also not like they aren’t extremely talented in their own right, and able to put up big scores, especially in a 3 game slate.
I do want to focus on the three bigger-name TEs of Sam LaPorta, T.J. Hockenson, and Pat Friermuth. The other teams use multiple TEs, so it’s tough to predict who if anyone will produce even an average TE score. At the same time, LaPorta, Hockenson, and Friermuth all have the ability to put up 20+, even 30 in the right game script. If one of them does that, at the ownership they are going to inevitably carry you will find it extremely difficult to match-up with 8 points from a Tanner Hudson, regardless of the savings.
Defense is easy in the sense that they are all in play, so I’d mix it up and not worry about being overly focused on any one defense. Any one of these offenses has shown the ability to falter and make some big mistakes. And one random DST TD can swing the who slate, even if it is against the team where your QB stack is coming from.
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