EARLY Only Short Slate Survey – Week 14
After Steve’s massive wins on the Thanksgiving 3-game slate and the Early Only short slate on in Week 12, we are doing a weekly Short Slate Strategy Survey for both Early Only and Afternoon Only slates. Check out our favorite QB stacks, values, contrarian plays, fades, and more for the Early Only Slate for Week 14! You can always find all our Daily Fantasy content here!
FAVORITE QB STACK?
STEVE:
MEG:
FAVORITE GAME STACK?
STEVE:
Colts vs Bengals
MEG:
Colts vs Bengals
TOP 3 VALUE PLAYS (ANY POSITION)?
STEVE:
Jonathan Mingo, Drake London, Elijah Moore
MEG:
Elijah Moore, Keaton Mitchell, Brevin Jordan
TOP 3 CONTRARIAN PLAYS (ANY POSITION)?
*Note: Ownership tough to judge at this point for Early Only.
STEVE:
MEG:
David Montgomery, Kyren Williams, Gardner Minshew
TOP 3 FADES (20% OWNERSHIP OR HIGHER)?
*Note: Ownership tough to judge at this point for Early Only.
STEVE:
Garrett Wilson, Bijan Robinson, Chris Olave
MEG:
Garrett Wilson, DJ Moore, Drake London
FAVORITE DEFENSE?
STEVE:
Ravens
MEG:
Browns
OVERALL LINEUP STRATEGY FOR EARLY ONLY?
STEVE:
It is a larger slate for the early only, but between the quality of the QBs on the slate and bad weather in the forecast for a couple of games, there aren’t many places I’m excited to stack up. The worst of the weather appears to be in the Rams vs Ravens game and the Texans vs Jets game. I really don’t feel too comfortable grabbing the passing attacks in those contests outside of major contrarian plays. Kyren Williams is the only true every-down back in these two games, but you do have to pay for him. I don’t mind a cheap flier option on a Ravens RB or Texans RB and hope that they get some extra dump-offs and a TD or two.
With news that Derek Carr is expected to start for the Saints, the only player on that team that looks worth rostering is Alvin Kamara. He should see plenty of carries and numerous short passes, as Carr is battling through multiple injuries, and they won’t want him to stay in the pocket long. The Saints’ defense is also in play in this game against a Panthers offense that has been a mess all year. Jonathan Mingo represents one of the best salary savers on the slate, but be aware he will also be among the highest-owned players. If you want to get unique Thielen did have 20 DK points in this match-up week 2, and will be almost un-owned given his price.
The three games I’m really going to focus on are the Bucs at Falcons, Colts at Bengals, and Lions at Bears. For the Lions side, you can go Jared Goff as the safe play, but I’m more interested in one of their running backs and Sam LaPorta. Potentially a cheap receiver from the Lions as well if you need the savings. On the Bears side, expect Justin Fields and D.J. Moore to be very popular, but also that might be the combo you need to win this slate. Cole Kmet is in play as well, but the key will be making your line-up unique if you grab the chalky Bears players.
The Colts at Bengals is a match-up of two backup QB-led teams, but the interesting thing here is the upside if this game does produce some points. Chase and Pittman are both coming off massive games, and if their QBs get hot they will see 12+ targets. Neither is overly priced, but that should make them fairly popular on this slate that lacks the big names of the 4pm window. The other receivers on these teams like Downs, Higgins, Pierce, and Boyd, could be interesting pivots as well. All should come in at far lower ownership, and could be a way to make a Chase or Pittman stack more unique, with a low-owned bring-back from the other side.
It’s not just the QBs and WRs in the Colts vs Bengals game that are intriguing. Joe Mixon is coming off a game where he saw 2 TDs and all the passing work, going against one of the weakest running defenses in the league. This is a fantastic spot for him. Zack Moss failed last week, and will still be chalky in this game, but he still offers some intriguing value upside. He saw basically all of the Colts’ back-field work, and could fare much better in this match-up against the Bengals. In addition, both teams offer a cheap TE in Tanner Hudson from the Bengals and Kyle Granson from the Colts. Cincy has also really struggled against TEs this season.
Finally, the game that I have my favorite QB stack is Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans. Evans is having a fantastic season, and Mayfield has shown some above-average fantasy games this year. At his price on this early-only slate that can be enough. I also think you can double-stack him with Chris Godwin, who might have a squeaky-wheel narrative going on. The Falcons passing offense isn’t one to get excited about, but I do like the idea of taking some shots on Drake London or Kyle Pitts in this game. I’ll probably fade Bijan in the Early only due to him probably being among the highest-owned backs.
MEG:
I’m going to make big fades again on the Early Only slate with players that I can see a path to failing. I’m going to fade the popular Justin Fields/DJ Moore stack and fade the very popular Early Only receivers like Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Moore, and Drake London. If I can successfully get leverage on this ownership, that will be massive. If I’m wrong, then it’s on to the Afternoon Only slate.
Like Steve, Mayfield/Mike Evans is my favorite stack. After Mayfield, I lean Gardner Minshew over the newly popular Jake Browning for leverage as well. I also don’t mind stacks with Jared Goff or Joe Flacco. All these QBs should be much less owned than Fields and Browning. My priority spends are Mike Evans, Ja’Marr Chase, and Michael Pittman.
Good luck!
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