EARLY Only Short Slate Survey – Week 13

After Steve’s massive wins on the Thanksgiving 3-game slate and the Early Only short slate on Sunday, we are doing a weekly Short Slate Strategy Survey for both Early Only and Afternoon Only slates. Check out our favorite QB stacks, values, contrarian plays, fades, and more for the Early Only Slate for Week 13! You can always find all our Daily Fantasy content here!

 

FAVORITE QB STACK?

STEVE:

 

 

FAVORITE GAME STACK? 

STEVE:

Miami vs Washington

 

TOP 3 VALUE PLAYS (ANY POSITION)?

STEVE:

 

TOP 3 CONTRARIAN PLAYS (ANY POSITION)?

STEVE:

 

TOP 3 FADES (20% OWNERSHIP OR HIGHER)?

STEVE:

 

FAVORITE DEFENSE?

STEVE:

 

OVERALL LINEUP STRATEGY FOR EARLY ONLY?

STEVE:

With a 7-game Early Only slate I don’t think you have to go all-in on any one game. That being said, the best game to target does have to be the Dolphins-Commanders. Washington’s defense has been awful all season, and Miami’s offense has the explosive capability to put up as many points as they want. Tua Tagovailoa is the top QB option, but don’t ignore Sam Howell in this game either. His passing rate is among the highest in the league, and he also offers a little rushing ability as well.

 

Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud are other top-end QBs to look at in the early slate, both have 30+ point upside and could be less owned than the QBs from the Dolphins game. After those two there aren’t a lot of QBs that are worth rostering. Goff has shown a mid-20’s, but you’d need the other QBs to not go overboard. There are cheaper options like Kenny Pickett or Gardner Minshew, but it’s pretty thin overall.

 

At running back expect Zack Moss to see upwards of 50% ownership in most tournaments and might be more like 75% in smaller- fields. In some cases, I do think you can not play him due to the risk of injury, or that he doesn’t get near the 20-point threshold most are expecting. It’s a risky fade at this price given his expected usage.

As for the rest of the backs, I like Kamara at the top given his expected volume. Both backs on the Dolphins, Lions and Steelers look strong as well, but figuring out the right one can be a challenge. I don’t mind Bijan Robinson even vs the Jets as his usage has been stellar since the bye. And finally, Rhamondre Stevenson is getting a ton of usage on a bad team, but is worth a look for sure.

 

At receiver, Tyreek Hill is nearly a must-play on this slate, but you can make a strong case that Keenan Allen isn’t far behind. Some might get scared by Allen’s match-up, but he just had 14 catches for 100+ against an elite Ravens defense, now he gets a Patriots defense that is not that strong. Among expensive options, Waddle is also worth looking at, as is Michael Pittman Jr. who is also in a great match-up.

 

In the middle, I like Nico Collins, Courtland Sutton, Terry McLaurin, Josh Downs, and both Steelers receivers. And if you need salary savers, Dotson and Samuel from the high total game look promising. I also like Devante Parker and AT Perry as really cheap plays who could see increased volume due to injury.

 

For TE Sam LaPorta and Pat Friermuth are the two that stand out near the top, but there are a number on this slate who can be fine options if they get in the end zone. Gerald Everett, Logan Thomas, Juwan Johnson, and Hunter Henry could all pay off this way. If you want to go really cheap, Brevin Jordan is $2,500 and will get most of the TE passing work for the Texans with Schultz out.

 

Defense for the early slate is pretty simple for me on four teams, the Steelers, Chargers, Falcons, and Colts. Of those the Colts are my favorite as we just haven’t seen Will Levis do much of anything since his first game. I think Henry will have a tough time finding success this week, putting Levis in a negative game script.

 

MEG:

Like Steve, I love stacking the Dolphins/Washington game and building around that. Tua and Howell will be my two main QBs. And I will have at least 2-3 players from that game minimum in all my early-only lineups. Tyreek Hill is my priority spend on the early-only slate for obvious reasons.

The other QB I will play is Kenny Pickett with the new offensive coordinator and facing the Cardinals’ defense. This is mainly because he’s cheap, his matchup is great, and I like all his weapons. You’ll notice from my answers, I’m interested in playing a lot of Steelers. I will 1-2 Steelers in most of my lineups even if I don’t have Pickett.

My big stand for early-only is a major risk. I am playing Zach Moss as the “free square” on Main slate, so I can jam in multiple studs. But on early-only I’m going to hedge on my Main slate Zach Moss play and mostly fade him on the short slate. If he fails, I’ll gain massive leverage in early-only. If he does well, then my main slate lineups will be in great shape and I’ll move on to the afternoon-only short slate. Note in early-only, I’ll also try to play Pittman or Downs as a leverage pivot.

Again, note I’m aware this is a massive risk due to his projected workload, so this depends on your risk tolerance and your stand on him on the Main slate. If you’re underweight on him in the Main slate, then you may want to hedge and play him on early-only. That’s what’s great about short slate, is you can use it as an opportunity to hedge your portfolio.