DraftKings 2-Game Short Slate Survey – September 25
Every Monday we’ll break down the DraftKings Showdown slate. You can always find all our Daily Fantasy content here! But tonight we have another fun 2-game short slate on DraftKings. I love DraftKings short slate strategy!
So we are breaking down top stacks, values, contrarian plays, fades, and more in this survey format between Steve and myself. We both love DraftKings short slate strategy so it’s fun to analyze the different angles for short slates.
WHICH GAME DO YOU LIKE STACKING MORE?
Bengals/Rams, will be more popular overall but I think there are more total points in this game.
Eagles/Bucs for me, mostly the passing game from that game
WHO IS YOUR FAVORITE QUARTERBACK AND STACK ON THE 2-GAME SLATE AND WHY?
Matt Stafford and 2 of his pass catchers. I love Jalen Hurts and think he’s a great play, but you can grab Stafford at maybe half the ownership, and $2,400 less. Stafford has hit the 300-yard bonus in both games so far, but his fantasy production is down due to only one passing TD. He’s likely to throw 40+ times this game, and if TD variance goes his way, he can meet and even exceed Hurts’ fantasy points expectation.
Agree, take ownership leverage with Stafford. Baker Mayfield at similar lower ownership with 2-3 pass catchers is interesting to me too in likely negative game script and you can’t run on the Eagles.
TOP 3 VALUE PLAYS (ANY POSITION)?
Stafford, Tutu Atwell, Tyler Boyd
Stafford, Tutu Atwell, Cade Otten
TOP 3 CONTRARIAN PLAYS (ANY POSITION)?
BIGGEST FADE AT HIGH OWNERSHIP?
OVERALL SHORT SLATE STRATEGY FOR TONIGHT?
In the Philadelphia/Tampa Bay game, I think the Eagles passing attack should do well, so I believe Hurts and his top pass catchers are a strong play. I favor Brown over Smith, but I think both can get there. Goedert hasn’t had the usage you’d like, but in a short slate like this, he stands out from a talent perspective. I know Swift is coming off a big game, but I’ll probably mainly just play a little Gainwell from this backfield. I don’t see either back succeeding on the ground, but I could see Gainwell doing more with his passing work. The fact that Gainwell is cheaper and likely owned 1/2 if not lower than Swift, makes him the better call for me.
On the Buccaneers side if I was playing a lot of line-ups I would have some Mayfield, as the Eagles have given up top QB scores to both Mac Jones and Kirk Cousins. I might do one line-up with him still, but playing only fewer line-ups he’s not a priority since I don’t feel I need the savings. At RB I don’t see Rachaad White having a lot of success on the ground, but he should have the RZ role and will catch the ball out of the backfield, he offers a slight pivot off the super chalky backs from the later game. Among the receivers, I will be prioritizing Mike Evans and likely fading Chris Godwin. Evans has just looked far better to start this year and seems to have a better connection with Baker Mayfield. Godwin can be fine in this match-up vs. a banged-up Eagles secondary, but it sounds like he will be one of the highest-owned receivers, and I just don’t want to chase that. Cade Otton projects to be the highest-owned TE on the slate, but it’s hard to ignore the price and the match-up. The Eagles have been shredded by TEs to start the season, and while Otton might not be on the level of Hunter Henry and T.J. Hockenson, the LBs and safeties are a clear hole in the Eagles’ defense right now.
In the Rams/Bengals game, it sounds like Joe Burrow is going to play, and I will consider him and the Bengals offense as reasonable options. Yes, there is some clear risk, but the price already bakes that in. With this being a 2 game slate, you can’t dismiss the Bengals outright, even if you are really worried. I know so far the Rams’ defense has played better than expected, but we have to keep in mind that this defense lacks premier talent beyond Aaron Donald. This defense has only gotten 3 sacks and 0 turnovers in 2 games, so it can get exposed if Burrow is even 75% himself. Overall Burrow will probably be my 3rd highest QB because I don’t see them pushing him in scenarios where they are ahead, but I want some Burrow exposure. Mixon is going to be the highest-owned back, and honestly, I think it’s really good chalk. The Rams haven’t done as well vs. running backs, and I expect the Bengals to lean into Mixon both as a runner and a dump-off receiver in this game. I want to be over the field and might have him in 80% of my line-ups. I think Chase, Higgins, and Boyd are all in play. Of the three I’ll probably have the least of Higgins, as I think the Bengals will try to get Chase involved early, and I see Boyd as the cheaper/low-owned option who will be Burrow’s security blanket. Irv Smith isn’t expected to play, which means Drew Sample is an option, he’s $2,500, but I probably won’t play him that often.
On the Rams side, as mentioned above, I love Stafford this week. He’s looked great so far this year, and that’s without really throwing TDs. The Bengals secondary has been struggling to start the season and will have a tough time here against this passing attack. I do expect some scoring in this game, so I think that will keep Stafford throwing. He pretty easily can be in the 300-350 yard range, and hopefully, a minimum of 2 passing TDs, if he pushes it to 3 or 4, he could be the clear-cut QB1, regardless of price. Kyren Williams will be almost as popular as Joe Mixon, and while I do want to play him, I don’t understand going that overboard on him. I think he can get there with his RZ and receiving role, but I doubt he offers much rushing-wise. I’d be wary of looking at what the Bengals allowed on the ground vs the Browns and Ravens, two of the top rushing teams in the league (and with rushing QBs). So while I’ll play Williams, I plan on being lower than the field.
At receiver it’s impossible to deny that Puka Nacua is in the Cooper Kupp role and has Stafford’s trust, the question is though, can the Bengals limit him to warrant attempting a fade? The quick answer is no, their secondary has struggled, and his role has such a strong floor that it would be tough for him to totally fail. I will have some line-ups without him of course, but I want to have at least 40-50% of him. What I do have more interest in, is taking a look at the Rams’ other two starting WRs in Tutu Atwell and Van Jefferson. Atwell has produced fantasy-wise this year, but Jefferson has been very limited so far. Both are running essentially the same amount of routes as Nacua, so the opportunity is there for them to have valuable spike weeks. Especially, since so far we haven’t seen any of the receivers get a TD yet. Atwell and Jefferson both offer deep speed to challenge these young Bengals safeties and could get there with one big homerun ball. Higbee is worth a look at TE, but he isn’t a huge priority for me this week.
I love playing short slates on DraftKings and being unique with short slate strategy. I think short slates like tonight give you permission to break “rules” and get creative with DraftKings lineup building. A few strategies I like to consider for short slates are overstacking one game, overstacking one team (onslaught if it makes sense), pivoting off massive ownership, or playing a unique player that should be under-owned (value or TE) are a few strategies I like.
I agree with all of Steve’s notes generally and I’m going to have a lot of the passing game from Eagles/Bucs with Rams receiver mixed in. Mixon is the only player I trust to play from the Bengals. And I think leverage spots could be going overweight the Rams and/or Bucs.
Good luck tonight!