Classic Slate – DraftKings Strategy Survey Week 2
Every Saturday we’ll break down the DraftKings Class slate in this survey format between Steve and myself. Check out our favorite QB stacks, values, contrarian plays, fades, and more!
TOP 3 QB STACKS YOU’RE PLAYING?
FAVORITE GAME STACK?
Chiefs-Jags, Seahawks-Lions, Chargers-Titans
Same – Chiefs-Jags, Seahawks-Lions, Chargers-Titans
TOP 3 VALUE PLAYS (ANY POSITION)?
TOP 3 CONTRARIAN PLAYS (ANY POSITION)?
Brian Robinson and AJ Dillon (ownership may come in higher on Dillon)
Keenan Allens and Mike Williams
TOP 3 FADES (10% OWNERSHIP OR HIGHER)?
Cowboys for sure, but Lions would be next
Cowboys if I can get up to them. But I don’t mind punting with Jets or Cardinals DSTs.
OVERALL LINEUP STRATEGY FOR WEEK 1 AND SUMMARY:
For the most part I want to focus on the top-tier QBs who let us down last week. Guys like Josh Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, and Herbert. I think we should expect decent bounce-back in general when a top QB is coming off a down game, but especially when they have a more favorable match-up. Outside of those four, the only other QBs I’m really interested in are Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence, and maybe a shot on Daniel Jones vs. a weak Cardinals defense. Normally I’d be more excited for Lamar Jackson and Geno Smith in these game environments, but both are dealing with multiple offensive linemen being injured. I might take shots on them in short slates, but not in the main slate.
I want to be well overweight on the Chargers passing game, as I see this as an eruption spot for that unit against a terrible Titans pass defense. I’m also very high on the Lions offense and both sides of the Chiefs/Jags in potentially the top shootout of the week. I also see a nice bounceback for Joe Burrow and his receivers against a Ravens defense that is thin in the secondary. Baltimore is stout up front, which is why I’m surprised that so many people are projecting Joe Mixon to be one of the highest-owned RBs. I’ll be off Mixon this week as I think he will need to get there mainly through goal-line variance and passing work.
Speaking of fades I will be off the Puka Nacua train this week, his ownership will be muted slightly due to the match-up and injury, but not enough. The 49ers defense is one of the best in the league, and Nacua could be limited. The chances that he smashes again are pretty limited. I’d much rather target receivers like Nico Collins or Zay Jones in better match-ups at similar costs with just a fraction of the ownership. I’m also surprised with how low-owned Mike Evans is projected this week, he was one of my favorite plays against a thin Bears secondary already, now that I know that he’s not expected to be chalk I’m all on board.
At running back I like some pay-up options like CMC and Barkley, but I don’t mind taking a shot at being contrarian with Bijan Robinson. Yes, he’s sharing the work with Tyler Allgier, and Allgier had more of the inside the 10 snaps. The thing is we dont’ know if that is going to be consistent, it’s not as if Robinson doesn’t have the skill set to handle that role. We also know that he is an explosive runner, and will get the passing work, which in this offense could lead the team in targets. This offense is built to run the ball, and both backs will get 10+ carries a week, on weeks where they can run 30+ times Robinson could have slate-breaking ability. If he’s going to be under 2% owned I have to be interested.
The other B. Robinson running back is also on my radar this week. Brian Robinson is clearly the top option in Washington, and they want to run the football with a young QB. They don’t project for a lot of points in this match-up, but I think you are getting a sub $5.5K back who should have 20 carries+targets, and all the goal-line work. His ownership numbers also aren’t too crazy.
It’s boring, because not much of a debate but I agree with most of Steve’s thoughts and outline for slate. Just because of the total number of lineups I’m playing, I may not play Josh Allen or Joe Burrow coming off their stinkers. Allen will be chalk and Burrow is going to be 10%+. I’ll play mostly Mahomes, Lawrence, Herbert, and Goff (all sub 10% projected ownership – especially the last three).
I honestly do not understand how Herbert and his receivers are going to be so low-owned. I guess it’s directly because RB Joshua Kelley will be chalk with Austin Ekeler likely out. This Titans’ run defense is stout and this is a pass funnel. I’ll happily take advantage of low ownership in a better matchup.
Other than that, I really like the receivers in the 7Ks – Ridely, ASB, Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, etc. I want a min. of two of these receivers in all my lineups as they are way too cheap for their role, talent and matchup this week.